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系統識別號 U0002-2506200811332500
中文論文名稱 通貨膨脹對金融發展影響之長期與短期分析
英文論文名稱 The Long-and Short-Run Relationship between Financial Development and Inflation
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 經濟學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Economics
學年度 96
學期 2
出版年 97
研究生中文姓名 邱奕盛
研究生英文姓名 I-Sheng Chiu
學號 695570027
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2008-06-06
論文頁數 42頁
口試委員 指導教授-林淑琴
委員-金東炫
委員-莊希豐
中文關鍵字 通貨膨脹  金融發展  PMG估計方法 
英文關鍵字 Inflation  Financial development  Pooled mean group Estimation 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學經濟學
中文摘要 以往在探討通貨膨脹對金融發展的影響較著重於長期的分析上,短期間是否存在著差異性則並未做深入的研究,因此本文特別針對通貨膨脹對金融發展影響的長期與短期效果進行分析,以銀行的發展為實證研究對象,利用PMG(Pooled Mean Group)估計方法進行計量分析。得到以下結論:
(一)在所有樣本國家下,發現通貨膨脹對金融發展的長期影響上呈現顯著為負的現象,可能由於通貨膨脹率的上漲對金融部門資源配置效率的能力產生負面影響,使得長期下通貨膨脹對金融發展影響呈現顯著為負的情形。在短期係數方面的實證結果,通貨膨脹對金融發展出現顯著為正向的影響,原因可能來自經濟社會對金融服務的需求提高,伴隨產生金融部門的擴大,使得在短期上通貨膨脹與金融發展上存在顯著為正向的互動關係。
(二)在高、中、低所得國家群組中,實證結果出現共通現象是通貨膨脹的長期係數三組一致趨於顯著性為負的關係。而在通貨膨脹的短期係數方面則出現不同的結果,高所得群組出現不顯著的情形,中所得群組傾向於不確定,低所得國家群組則是出現顯著性為正向的變動關係。短期效果如此差異的原因可能在於低所得國家群組中,金融體系的發展本身比起高所得群組就來得緩慢或不夠健全,短期下的通貨膨脹能適度刺激金融發展的需求,使得低所得國家群組出現短期係數顯著為正的情形,而高所得群組本身金融發展可能已較健全,產生通貨膨脹的短期係數顯著性並不強烈。
英文摘要 This study examines the short-and long-run effects of inflation on financial development, with special emphasis on banking sector development. Applying the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation to a panel data consisting of 80 countries over the period 1960~2004, some interesting results emerge.
First, in general, inflation and financial development are cointegrated. And, inflation tends to have negative long-run effects but positive short-run effect on financial development.
Second, when segregating the sample into the high-, middle- and low-income subsample, the positive long-run and negative short-run impacts of inflation are found to hold for the low-income countries.
論文目次 目次

第一章 緒論............................01
第一節 研究動機與目的.......................01
第二節 本文架構..........................04

第二章 文獻回顧..........................05
第一節 金融發展與經濟成長.....................05
第二節 通貨膨脹與經濟成長.....................06
第三節 通貨膨脹與金融發展.....................08

第三章 計量模型與估計方法.....................11

第四章 實證結果與分析.......................15
第一節 資料來源..........................15
第二節 結果分析..........................19

第五章 結論與建議.........................36

參考文獻.............................38

附表...............................40

表次

表1 變數定義...........................17
表2 樣本變數之相關係數與敘述統計.................17
表3 樣本國家數(依每人實質國內生產毛額分類)............18
表4-1 通貨膨脹對金融發展的長期與短期效果─所有樣本國家......25
表4-2 通貨膨脹對金融發展的長期與短期效果─所有樣本國家穩健性檢定.26
表5-1 通貨膨脹對金融發展的長期與短期效果─高所得國家群組.....29
表5-2 通貨膨脹對金融發展的長期與短期效果─中所得國家群組.....32
表5-3 通貨膨脹對金融發展的長期與短期效果─低所得國家群組.....35
附表1 通貨膨脹與其他控制變數對金融發展的長期與短期效果(變數一)..40
附表2 通貨膨脹與其他控制變數對金融發展的長期與短期效果(變數二)..41
附表3 通貨膨脹與其他控制變數對金融發展的長期與短期效果(變數三)..42
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