現今國際社會基於先進武器毀滅力量強大，不敢輕啟戰端，但是基於國家安全的考慮.，又不能放棄建立符合國家利益與安全的環境，在這樣兩難的情況下，經濟制裁成了較為可行之維持國家利益的途徑。美國對於經濟制裁的運用，由來已久，基於維護民主體制、保護人權、嚇阻不友善國家、恐怖主義以及防止核武擴張等理由。第二次世界大戰結束後，美國成為國際上使用經濟制裁最頻繁的國家。從1960年代起，關於經濟制裁的文獻迅速累積。經濟制裁包含了，對被制裁國的懲罰或是傳送訊息給國際社會的象徵性意義；對國際道德發出警示法律上意義；也有滿足大眾對此行動的期望或經濟需要的制裁國國內意義。


制裁國在考量是否出動軍事衝突的過程中，除了國內政治的影響之外，對於未來的衝突可能也是重要的參考因素。主要是在考慮當決定施予經濟制裁的時候，未來與被制裁國的關係、這時候爭端的特質、以及緊張關係的程度不同、未來展開衝突是否對制裁國本身有利，當將成為考量的因素。眾多因素交織下，盼能從中看出經濟制裁後續引發戰爭之原因，以及經濟制裁之於軍事暴力衝突怎樣的關係。經濟制裁與軍事衝突的關係，怎麼樣的情況會使經濟制裁無法有效降低軍事衝突的發生？倘若當經濟制裁缺乏效力，並且緊張關係不停攀升時，正面的軍事衝突是否就會因應而生?由古至今，美國在絕大多數經濟制裁中擔任制裁國的角色，對於經濟制裁後續影響之研究，著實為當今我們必須好好深入的課題。

儘管經濟制裁於第二次世界大戰後，廣泛的被各國所用，不過關於其抑制戰爭效力的有無，卻是眾說紛紜。本文主要在探討經濟制裁與軍事衝突間的關係，在怎麼樣的規模及強度的經濟制裁會導致軍事衝突的發生怎麼樣的規模及強度的經濟制裁又會有效的避免軍事衝突？運用經驗法則與實證研究出來的結果做比較，估算出將衝突可能性降到最小之數值

The power of the weapon in this generation is getting stronger and stronger. Pushing every country to think about other way to solve the international dispute without military conflict. Economic sanctions become a good option for this situation. The United State has become the country which use economic sanctions mostly as a tool on foreign affaire. Since 1960, the document and the literature of economic sanctions has getting more and more important. It includes many different point of view to descried and analyze economic sanctions.   

    From the sender’s point of view, sanctions are meant as a tool to prevent conflict. Having failed at diplomacy, the sender must choose between war and capitulation. Sanctions provide an intermediate position which signals to the target the sender’s resolve. If sanctions are too light, then there may be a high probability of conflict due to the utter loss of reputation of the sender and the hardening of the attitude of the target. Light sanctions will be seen as weakness and conflict will then be needed to shore up this perceived weakness. Heavy sanctions can also be associated with a high probability of conflict. Indeed a straight out blockade of a target may be thought of as low intensity conflict itself. However, from the target’s point of view, conflict may be the only recourse in the face of extreme sanctions that threaten the regime. Seen in this way, the intensity of sanctions is not monotonically related to the likelihood of conflict. Low sanctions lead to high probabilities of war, while stiff sanctions also lead to a high probability of war. In this thesis we try to find the cost of the target which can make the lowest probability of military conflict through binary logit model and ordered logit model. Make useful suggestions to the similar research in the future.

目錄

第一章	緒論……………………………………………………1

第一節	研究動機………………………………………………3
第二節	研究目的及限制………………………………………8
第三節  研究方法……………………………………………..12
第四節  成果摘要………………………………………..……14

第二章	文獻探討……………………………………………15

第一節	國內文獻…………………………………………..18
第二節	國外文獻…………………………………………..20
第三節	主要文獻簡析……………………………………..26

第三章 理論基礎………………………………………………28

第四章 經驗法則與實證研究…………………………………39

第五章 結論與建議……………………………………………51

參考書目……………..………………………………………53

圖目錄
圖 3-1制裁強度及衝突可能性之關係圖………………………………………….……….30
圖 3-2連續性的選擇與結果流程示意圖……………………………………………………………………………..………..…37
圖 3-3標的函數圖………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……….….……..38
圖 4-1隱藏函數 及cut point的示意…………………………………………..….….…….48
圖 4-2最理想之成本曲線圖…...……………………………………………….……..……48
圖 4-3成本及衝突發生可能性之曲線圖……………………………………….……..…...50
表目錄
表 2-1國內經濟制裁對衝突可能性之效力研究整理表…………………………….…..18
表 2-2國外經濟制裁對衝突可能性之效力研究整理表…………………………….…..19
表 4-1變數定義…………………………………………………………………….……..40
表 4-2「面對爭端的最大反應程度I」COW訂出之數值，由1到21之不同程度 .…………………………………………….………………………….……….…41
表 4-3統計衝突及被制裁國成本…………………………………………………..…….42
表 4-4統計面對爭端的最大反應程度II及被制裁國成本……………….………..……44
表 4-5統計「面對爭端的最大反應程度I」及被制裁國成本……………………..…....45

參考書目
1、中文部份
(1)專書 
（一）中文專書 
史提法諾•古基尼（Stefano Guzzini）。鄭又平、黃烈修譯。2000年。《國際關係與國際政治經濟學》。台北：韋伯文化出版社。 
林碧炤。1997年。《國際政治與外交政策》。台北：五南出版社。 
倪世雄等著。2001年。《當代西方國際關係理論》。上海：復旦大學出版社。 
約翰•奧德爾（John S. Odell）。孫英春譯。2003年。《世界經濟談判》。北京：世界知識出版社。 
張國忠編著。2000年。《商業談判：原理與實務》。台北：前程企管。 
張清溪、許嘉棟、劉鶯釧、吳聰敏着。2000年。《經濟學：理論與實務》，上冊。台北：翰蘆圖書出版社。 
張學斌。2003年。《經濟外交》。北京：北京大學出版社。 
詹姆士．曼恩（James H. Mann）。林添貴譯。1999年。《轉向：從尼克森到柯林頓美中關係揭密》。台北：先覺。 
維克托•克里蒙克（Victor A. Kremenyuk）主編。屈李坤、趙圍、樊海軍譯。2004年。《國際談判—分析、方法和問題》。北京：華夏出版社。 
赫伯特•利萬（Herbert M. Levine）。王業立、郭應哲、林佳龍譯。1999年。《政治學中爭辯的議題》。台北：韋伯文化出版社。 
樊勇明主編。2003年。《西方國際政治經濟學理論與流派》。上海：上海人民出版社。 
霍斯堤（K.J. Hosti）。李偉成、譚溯澄譯。2000年。《國際政治分析架構》。台北：幼獅。 
羅伯特•吉爾平（Robert Gilpin）。楊光宇等譯。1994年。《國際關係的政治經濟分析》。臺北：桂冠圖書。 
（2）中文期刊、文章 

阮建平。2004年。〈國際經濟制裁：演化、效率及新特點〉。《現代國際關係》，第4期，頁30-36。
周方銀。1997年。〈國際關係中的經濟制裁〉。《現代國際關係》，第10期，頁40。
萬書。2004年。〈試論經濟制裁〉。《世界經濟與政治》，第9期，頁26-31。
顏劍英。2005年。〈美國經濟制裁與發展中國家的經濟安全〉。《國際論壇》，第7卷第3期，頁43-48。
顏劍英。2005年。〈美國經濟制裁與發展中國家的經濟安全〉。《國際論壇》，第7卷第3期，頁43-48。

（3）中文網站
BBC。http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/ 
WTO入口網。http://www.doc.trade.gov.tw/ 












（二）英文部分

(1)英文專書 
Arms Control and Disarmament Agreements: Texts and Histories of the Negotiations (Washing, D.C.: United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, 1996). 
Baldwin, David A., Economic Statecraft (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1985). 
Carter, Barry E., International Economic Sanctions (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1988). 
Clawson, Patrick, How Has Saddam Hussein Survived? Economic Sanctions, 1990-93 (Washington, D.C.: Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, 1993). 
Collins, Joseph J. and Garbrielle D. Bowdoin, Beyond Unilateral Economic Sacntions: Better Alternatives for U.S. Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1999). 
Cortada, James N. and James W. Cortada, U.S. Foreign Policy in the Caribbean, Cuba, and Central America (New York: Praeger Publisher, 1985). 
Cortright, David and George A. Lopez eds., Economic Sanctions: Panacea or Peacebuilding in a Post-Cold War World (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1995). 
Crane, George T. and Abla Amawi eds., The Theoretical Evolution of International Political Economy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991). 
Damrosch, Lori Fisler ed., Enforcing Restraint: Conflict Intervention in Internal Conflicts (NY: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1993). 
Doxey, Margaret P., International Sanctions in Contemporary Perspective 2nd edition (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1996). 
Doxey, Margaret P., Economic Sanctions and International Enforcement 2nd edition (London: Macmillan Press Ltd., 1980). 
Freedman, Lawrence and Efraim Karsh, The Gulf Conflict1990-1991: Diplomacy and War in the New World Order (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1993). 
Garfield, Richard, Morbidity and Mortality among Iraqi Children from 1990 through 1998: Assessing the Impact of the Gulf War and Economic Sanctions (New York: Columbia University, 1999). 
George, Alexander L., Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, 1993). 
Gibbons, Elizabeth D., Sanctions in Haiti: Human Rights and Democracy under Assault (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1999). 
Gow, James ed., Iraq, the Gulf Conflict and the World Community (New York: Macmillan Publishing Company, 1993). 
Haass, Richard N. ed., Economic Sanctions and American Diplomacy (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1998). 
Holsti, K. J., International Politics: A Framework for Analysis 5th edition (New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1988). 
Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, Jerry J. Schott, and Kimberly Ann Elliott, Economic Sanctions Reconsidered 2nd edition (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1990). 
Isaak. Robert A., International Political Economy: Managing World Economic Change (New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1991). 
Johnston, Douglas and Sidney Weintraub, Altering U.S. Sanctions Policy: Final Report of the CSIS Project on Unilateral Economic Sanctions (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1999). 
Losman, Donald L., International Economic Sanctions: The Case of Cuba, Israel and Rhodesia (Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press, 1979). 
Malone, David M., Decision-Making in the UN Security Council (New York: Oxford University Press Inc., 1998). 
Martin, Lisa L., Coercive Cooperation: Explaining Multilateral Economic Sanctions (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1992). 
Minear, Larry, David Cortright, Julia Wagler, George Lopez, and Thomas G. Weiss, Toward More Humane and Effective Sanctions Management: Enhancing the Capacity of the United Nations System (Rhode Island: Brown University, 1998). 
Morris. Ellis, International Verification Organization (Toronto: Centre for International and Strategic Studies, York University, 1991). 
National Assossiciation of Manufactures, A Catalogue of New U.S. Unilateral Economic Sacntions for Foreign Policy Purposes, 1993- 1996 (Washington, D.C.: National Assossciation of Manufactures, 1997). 
Nicholls, David, Haiti in Caribbean Context: Ethnicity, Economy, and Revolt (The Macmillan Press Ltd., 1985). 
Nincic, Miroslav and Peter Wallensteen eds., Dilemmas of Economic Coercion: Sanctions in World Politics (New York: Praeger Publisher, 1983). 
Rothkopf, David J., The Price of Peace: Emergency Economic Intervention and U.S. Foreign Policy (New York: Carnegie Corporation, 1998). 
Stremlau. John, Sharpening International Sanctions: Toward a Stronger Role for the United Nations (New York: Carnegie Corporation, 1996). 
Van Bergeijk, Peter A. G., Economic Diplomacy, Trade and Commercial Policy: 
Weiss, Thomas G., David Cortright, George A. Lopez, and Larry Minear eds., Political Gain and Civilian Pain: Humanitarian Impacts of Economic Sanctions  
Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 1997). 

(2) 英文期刊、文章

Baldwin, David A., “The Power of Positive Sanctions,” World Politics, Vol. 24, No. 1 (October 1971), pp. 19-38.
Devis, Jenniver, “Sanctions and Apartheid: The Economic Challenge to Discrimination,” in David Cortright and George A. Lopez eds., Economic Sanctions: Panacea or Peacebuilding in a Post-Cold War World (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1995), pp. 173-184.
Galtung, Johan, “On the Effects of International Economic Sanctions: With Examples from the Case of Rhodesia,” World Politics, Vol. 19, No. 3 (April 1967), pp. 378-416.
Kaempfer, William H. and Anton D. Lowenberg, “The Theory and of International Economic Sanctions: A Public Choice Approach,” American Economic Review, Vol. 78, No. 4, (September 1988), pp. 786-793.
Kaempfer, William H. and Anton D. Lowenberg, “The Problems and Promise of Sanctions,” in David Cortright and George A. Lopez eds., Economic Sanctions: Panacea or Peacebuilding in a Post-Cold War World (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1995), pp. 61-71.
Kortanek, Mary E., “Democrats Push Clinton To Toughen Embargo,” Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, Vol. 52, No. 16, 1994, p. 1015.
Lopez, George A. and David Cortright, “Economic Sanctions in Contemporary Global Relations,” in David Cortright and George A. Lopez eds., Economic Sanctions: Panacea or Peacebuilding in a Post-Cold War World (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1995), pp. 3-16.
Pape, Robert A., “Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work,” International Security, Vol. 22, No. 2 (Fall 1997), pp. 90-136.
(3) 英文網站

維基百科。http://zh.wikipedia.org/ 
美國國務院網站：http://www.state.gov/g/drl/hr/
聯合國憲章：http://www.un.org/aboutun/charter/chapter7.htm. 
聯合國網站： http://www.un.org/News/ossg/sanction.htm.