本研究針對貨幣供給、政府支出以及具物價膨脹效果的消費者物價指數年增率，來探討台灣地區的物價膨脹受貨幣政策中的貨幣供給以及財政政策中的政府支出的相互關係。實證結果發現，當央行採取擴張性貨幣政策，增加流通在市場中的貨幣時，此些使貨幣供給增加的擴張性貨幣政策會造成物價過渡的上升而使經濟社會因為過渡的通貨膨漲而不穩定；若採取增加公共建設此一增加政府支出的擴張性財政政策僅會對通貨膨漲造成些微的影響。因此，當政府在取決於要採用擴張性貨幣政策或是財政政策來促成國民所得的提升時，吾人認為應採用擴張性財政政策以防止過渡通貨膨漲而造成不必要的金融危機。

The aim of this research is to investigate the dynamic relationship among money supply, government spending and inflation rate. The empirical finding is that the increment of money supply by the expansionary monetary policy will drag up the inflation rate, whereas the expansionary fiscal policy keeps the aggregate price in a comparative stable level. Therefore, this research concludes that when the government decides to implement the expansionary policy in order to increase the GDP, it should adopt fiscal policy rather than monetary policy to avoid the financial crisis caused by the hyperinflation.

致謝辭………………………………………………………………	I
中文摘要……………………………………………………………	II
英文摘要……………………………………………………………	III
目錄…………………………………………………………………	IV
圖目錄………………………………………………………………	VI
表目錄………………………………………………………………	VI
第一章 緒論………………………………………………………	1
第一節 研究背景與動機…………………………………………	1
第二節 研究目的…………………………………………………	3
第三節 研究架構與流程…………………………………………	4
第二章 文獻回顧…………………………………………………	5
第一節 國內外文獻回顧…………………………………………	5
第二節 國外文獻回顧……………………………………………	8
第三章 資料來源及處理…………………………………………	13
第四章 研究方法…………………………………………………	14
第一節 單根檢定…………………………………………………	14
第二節 共整………………………………………………………	15
第三節 向量自我迴歸……………………………………………	16
第四節 Granger因果關係檢定……………………………………	17
第五節 衝擊反應函數……………………………………………	17
第六節 變異數分解………………………………………………	18
第五章 實證結果與分析…………………………………………	21
第一節 單根檢定…………………………………………………	21
第二節 共整………………………………………………………	22
第三節 向量自我迴歸……………………………………………	22
第四節 Granger因果關係檢定……………………………………	23
第五節 衝擊反應函數……………………………………………	24
第六節 變異數分解………………………………………………	26
第六章 結論………………………………………………………	29
參考文獻……………………………………………………………	31

圖 目 錄
圖1.1 本研究架構流程圖……………………………………………………
4
圖4.1時間序列實證流程圖……………………………………………………
20
圖5.1三變數的衝擊反應圖……………………………………………………
25
表 目 錄
表5.1 各變數之ADF單根檢定結果…………………………………………
22
表5.2 自我向量迴歸檢定結果………………………………………………
23
表5.3 因果關係檢定結果……………………………………………………
24
表5.4a 貨幣供給(M2)與其他變數間之波動產生相互解釋關係……………
27
表5.4b 消費者物價指數(dCPI)與其他變數之波動產生相互解釋關係……
27
表5.4c 政府支出(G)與其他變數之波動產生相互解釋關係………………
28

國內文獻
江佳珊，(2009)，「中國大陸宏觀調控貨幣政策效果之研究－以2003年7月至2008年6月為例」，淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士論文。
吳閔鈺，(2009)，「通縮拉警報，失落年代再臨?」，台經月刊，第32卷第5期，頁41-48。 
徐維健，(2009)，「油價衝擊對台灣貨幣政策效果之影響」，國立台北大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
陳淑惠，(2009)，「美國貨幣政策與股匯市對物價影響-非線性平滑轉換誤差修正模型之應用」，淡江大學財務金融學系碩士在職專班論文。
蔡育廷，(2009)，「台灣總體計量模型-消費券與財政政策比較分析」，國立台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文。

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