現今社會的商業行為中，科技的創新漸漸地改變的消費者的消費習慣，也使得許多產品的生命週期縮短，而消費者意識的抬頭迫使廠商越來越重視對消費者的服務，造成企業間的競爭越來越激烈，使得原本即受到廣泛討論的退貨政策更顯得重要。

  本研究以單一製造商和存在競爭關係的兩個零售商所組成之供應鏈，並且加入需求不確定性的因素，以Stackelberg賽局理論為架構，假設製造商為領導者，兩個零售商為追隨者，藉由模型推倒的結果，分析其中各個變數在加入退貨政策後對於製造商和零售商的影響；其中市場需求不確定性分為高需求、低需求以及各自發生的機率，零售商分別針對市場存在高需求和低需求時進行定價，最後藉由各自發生的機率以求出零售商之預期利潤。

  零售商對於退貨政策的接受與否，分別採取不同的訂價策略來因應，因此也影響了批發價、零售價和存貨水準，而政策的有效性則是以製造商和零售商的利潤為最後依據，研究結果發現，退貨政策確實能為雙方帶來更多的利益。


關鍵字：供應鏈、賽局理論、退貨政策

Nowadays, the development of technology has changed consumers’ buying behaviors, and has shortened products’ life cycles. Moreover, the rise of consumption consciousness forces companies to pay more attention to services. These two factors all together lead to keener competition and make return policies become even more important.
  The study assumes that the supply chain consists of a producer and two retailers, and the producer is the leader whilst the retailers are the followers. It is conducted under Stackelberg’s game theory with the attempt to understand how return policies affect the producer and the retailers under demand uncertainty through analyzing the results of model derivation. The researcher categorized demand uncertainty into three categories, namely high demand, low demand and their probability of occurrence for the purpose of analysis. The retailers determine the prices according to the intensity of demand and predict the expected profits via their probability of occurrence.
  Various pricing policies reflect the retailers’ attitudes on the return policies, which also affect the wholesale prices, the retailer prices and inventory levels. Moreover, the feasibilities of return policies can be understood by appraising profits the producer and retailers earn. The result shows that the producer and the retailers enjoy more profits induced by return policies.

目錄
第一章  緒論	1
第一節  研究背景與動機	1
  第二節  研究目的	2
第三節  研究流程	3
第二章  文獻探討	4
第一節  供應鏈	4
第二節  報童理論與退貨政策	7
第三章  研究方法	13
第一節  模型假設與符號定義	13
第二節  製造商未提供退貨政策下之模型架構	17
第三節  製造商提供退貨政策下之模型架構	20
第四章  研究結果	23
第一節  退貨政策對於各個變數之影響	23
第二節  退貨政策對於零售商利潤之影響	28
第三節  退貨政策對於製造商利潤之影響	32
第五章  結論與建議	35
第一章  結論	35
第二節  未來研究方向	36
參考文獻	38

表目錄
表1-1 本研究章節安排 ............................................... 3
表3-1 零售商未接受退貨政策之定價策略均衡表 ........................ 19
表3-2 零售商接受完全退貨政策之各變數均衡表 ....................... 22
表4-1 零售商在兩種策略下各變數之差異 .............................. 34

圖目錄
圖1-1 研究流程圖 .................................................. 4
圖2-1 製造商和零售商退貨運作流程 .................................. 10
圖2-2 加入電子商務後之供應鏈結構 ................................. 12
圖3-1 決策過程 ................................................... 15
圖4-1 零售商在兩種策略間預期利潤和 之關係圖 ...................... 32

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