本文使用PSID在1984年到1994年之間的調查資料，探討在人生週期的各個年齡，來自自住房屋的資本利得對於主動儲蓄的影響為何。本文與既有文獻不同，使用的是平滑係數部分線性模型。實證結果發現，房屋資本利得對主動儲蓄的影響確實在生命週期各階段有不同，可以看出房屋資本利得與主動儲蓄有非線性關係。

This paper uses semiparametric smooth coefficient partially linear model to examine whether and how the relationship between housing capital gain and active saving varies with the age of household head.  Based on household data from PSID covering the period 1984-1988, we find that the association between housing capital gain and active saving is highly nonlinear and differs significantly across age.

第一章 緒論	1
第二章 文獻回顧	4
第三章 研究方法與實證模型	8
3. 1 研究方法	8
3. 1. 1 平滑係數部分線性模型	8
3. 1. 2 虛擬最小平方法估計	10
3. 1. 3 參數部分的推論	12
3. 2 實證模型	13
3. 2. 1線性迴歸模型	13
3. 2. 2 平滑係數部分線性模型	13
第四章 變數定義與資料來源	15
4. 1 變數定義說明	15
4. 1. 1財富的組成	15
4. 1. 2 主動儲蓄	15
4. 1. 3 資本利得	16
4. 1. 4 其他變數部份	16
4. 2 資料來源及使用數據敘述統計量	19
4. 2. 1 資料來源	19
4. 2. 2 1984-1988年敘述統計量	19
4. 2. 3 1989-1994年敘述統計量	20
4. 2. 4 1984-1988年與1989-1994年敘述統計量比較	22
4. 2. 5 1984-1994年敘述統計量	22
第五章 實證結果	24
5. 1 線性迴歸模型實證結果	24
5. 1. 1 1984-1988年線性迴歸模型實證結果	24
5. 1. 2 1989-1994年線性迴歸模型實證結果	26
5. 1. 3 1984-1988年與1989-1994年線性迴歸模型實證結果比較	28
5. 1. 4 1984-1994年線性迴歸模型實證結果	32
5. 2平滑係數部分線性模型實證結果	34
5. 2. 1 1984-1988年平滑係數部分線性模型實證結果	34
5. 2. 2 1984-1988年SCPL與線性迴歸模型估計結果的比較	43
5. 2. 3 1989-1994年SCPL實證結果	45
5. 2. 4 1989-1994年平滑係數部分線性模型與線性迴歸模型估計結果比較	53
5. 2. 5 1984-1988年與1989-1994年平滑係數部分線性模型實證結果比較	55
第六章 結論	57
文獻	58
表目錄
頁次
表1- 1: 1984-1994 年美國家庭儲蓄率 ........................................................................ 2
表4- 1: 變數定義列表 ................................................................................................ 17
表4- 1: 變數定義列表(續) ......................................................................................... 18
表4- 2: 1984-1988 年敘述統計量 .............................................................................. 20
表4- 3: 1989-1994 年敘述統計量 .............................................................................. 21
表4- 4: 1984-1994 年敘述統計量 .............................................................................. 23
表5- 1: 1984-1988 年線性迴歸模型實證結果 .......................................................... 25
表5- 2: 1989-1994 年線性迴歸模型實證結果 .......................................................... 27
表5- 3: 1984-1994 年線性迴歸模型實證結果 .......................................................... 33
表5- 4: 1984-1988 年SCPL 固定係數估計值 ........................................................... 34
圖目錄
頁次
圖1- 1: 1984-1994 年美國家庭儲蓄率 ........................................................................ 2
圖5- 1: 1984-1988 年截距項與年齡的關係 .............................................................. 35
圖5- 2: 1984-1988 年家庭人數平均值對主動儲蓄的影響 ...................................... 36
圖5- 3: 1984-1988 年家庭平均所得對主動儲蓄的影響 .......................................... 37
圖5- 4: 1984-1988 年來自自住房屋的資本利得對主動儲蓄的影響 ...................... 38
圖5- 5: 1984-1988 年來自股票的資本利得對主動儲蓄的影響 .............................. 39
圖5- 6: 1984-1988 年來自非自住房屋的資本利得對主動儲蓄的影響 .................. 40
圖5- 7: 1984-1988 年來自企業與農場的資本利得對主動儲蓄的影響 .................. 41
圖5- 8: 1989-1994 年截距項與年齡的關係 .............................................................. 46
圖5- 9: 1989-1994 年家庭人數平均值對主動儲蓄的影響 ...................................... 47
圖5-10:1989-1994 年家庭平均所得對主動儲蓄的影響 .......................................... 48
圖5-11:1989-1994 年來自自住房屋的資本利得對主動儲蓄的影響 ...................... 49
圖5-12:1989-1994 年來自股票的資本利得對主動儲蓄的影響 .............................. 50
圖5-13:1989-1994 年來自非自住房屋的資本利得對主動儲蓄的影響 .................. 51
圖5-14:1989-1994 年來自企業與農場的資本利得對主動儲蓄的影響 .................. 52

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