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中文論文名稱 股票成交量與報酬率關係之研究--從投資人情緒觀點探討
英文論文名稱 A Study Of Relationships Between Volume And Stock Returns —From The Aspect Of Investor Sentiment
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 管理科學研究所博士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Management Science
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生中文姓名 羅玟甄
研究生英文姓名 Wen-Chen Lo
學號 892560011
學位類別 博士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2011-06-16
論文頁數 95頁
口試委員 指導教授-莊武仁
指導教授-歐陽良裕
委員-陳定國
委員-李建然
委員-劉正田
委員-陳海鳴
委員-莊忠柱
委員-陳育成
委員-莊武仁
中文關鍵字 投資人情緒  成交量  超額報酬率  量價動態交互關係  雜訊交易 
英文關鍵字 investor sentiment  trading volume  excess returns  dynamic volume-return relation  noise trading  liquidity trading 
學科別分類
中文摘要 在傳統財務理論中,投資人是被視為是理性的,依據股票價格之攸關資訊,作出投資決策;即使有不理性的行為出現,也是被其他不相關的非理性行為抵銷。近年來,愈來愈多的實務現象與學術上的研究,顯示投資人非理性的行為會影響資產的價格與投資人的報酬率,因此非理性行為對資產價格的影響,不再被視為是異常現象,值得實務專家與理論學者進一步探討。
成交量在實務市場中,除了是表示流動性高低之指標外,其資訊內容常是投資人用以預測未來股價走勢的工具。例如:量先價行,高量之後還有高價,低量之後還有低價;價量齊揚,股價仍有高點,價量背離,是價格反轉的訊號等。此外,許多學者的研究顯示,成交量的變化可以反應投資人的情緒,而投資人過度自信的非理性信念也會影響成交量,進而影響未來的報酬率。
故本論文探討成交量與非理性交易行為,以揭露成交量之資訊內容,進而瞭解投資人非理性交易行為,有助於投資決策之制定。主要的研究結論為:第一,成交量變化量作為投資人情緒代理變數時,對於台灣股市之超額報酬率具有正向且顯著之影響。再者,根據過度自信假說,異常成交量與報酬率形成的量價關係,對於未來報酬率具有解釋能力。最後,異常高成交量可以反應投機性的流動性交易,異常高的個人投資人淨交易可以反應避險性或是非理性動機的流動性交易,若結合異常報酬率的資訊後,可以作為雜訊交易的訊號。
英文摘要 Theoretically, investors are thought to be rational under the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Under EMH, investors are assumed to be rational and therefore to value securities rationally. Even if some investors trade irrationally, they would trade in a random way, and their irrational trading can be cancelled out by other different and uncorrelated irrational trading. Many empirical studies show that the irrational investor behavior not only exists in the stock market but also has significant influences on the formation of prices. In addition, studies also argue the importance of investor sentiment in the stock market and contain interpretations of the influence of the sentiment beliefs on the formation of stocks price. Hence, such irrational behavior can be discussed further.
Trading volume is basic market statistics to signal stock prices and to help investors make decisions. Investors are used to predicting stock prices by analyzing trading volume. High stock prices frequently follow high level of trading volume and low prices appear after unusual low volume. Besides, investors observe trading volume and stock prices together to predict stock prices. For example, investors may keep on buying when both trading volume and stock prices increase steadily. However, investors tend to sell stocks when they observe an increased volume accompanied decreased prices. The importance of trading volume is not only noticed by market participants, but also acknowledged by theorists. Lee and Swaminathan (2000) as well as Shiller ( 2000) propose that trading volume can be used as a proxy for the measurement of the fluctuations in investor sentiment. Moreover, based upon the overconfidence proposition, the self-attribution biases drive investors’ trading a lot, and such behavior affects future returns.
Hence, this paper investigates the relation between trading volume and investor sentiment. We hope to uncover information content of trading volume furthermore and give investors more valuable information when making investing decisions. The main conclusions are summarized as followings: First, we find the change in trading volume can be used as a proxy for investor sentiment. Investor sentiment has a positive and significant influence on excess returns on Taiwan stock market. Second, based upon the overconfidence proposition, the dynamic relation between unusual volume and returns has significant predicting power to future returns. Finally, unusual high volume can signal the liquidity trading with speculative needs. Unusual high net individual trading can reflect the liquidity trading with risk-sharing needs or irrational behavior. The combination of unusual high trading activities and unusual returns can detect the presence of the noise trading.
論文目次 目錄......................I
表目錄.....................III
圖目錄.....................IV
第一章 緒論..................1
1.1 研究動機................1
1.2 研究目的................4
1.3 研究流程................5
第二章 文獻探討................7
2.1 非理性的投資行為............7
2.2 投資人情緒的代理變數......... 10
2.3 成交量與投資人情緒.......... 19
2.4 異常成交量的資訊內容與非理性交易行為. 25
第三章 研究方法............... 30
3.1 成交量與投資人情緒指標........ 30
3.2 量價動態交互關係與非理性投資行為... 35
3.3 異常量價動態交互關係與非理性投資行為. 41
第四章 實證結果與分析............ 47
4.1 台灣股票市場中投資人情緒與超額報酬之關
連.................. 47
4.2 檢驗台灣股票市場中量價動態交互關係模型 57
4.3 異常量價動態交互關係與非理性投資行為. 68
第五章 結論與建議.............. 84
5.1 研究結論..............84
5.2 研究限制..............85
5.3 實務意涵..............86
5.4 後續研究與建議...........87
參考文獻 .................. 89
表目錄
表 2-1 國內外投資人心理情緒代理變數之彙總表....16
表 2-2 成交量反應投資人情緒之彙總.........25
表 2-3 成交量、交易型態與未來報酬率型態之關係彙總.29
表 3-1 異常量價之四種組合的代號說明........45
表 4-1 超額報酬率與投資人代理變數之敘述性統計資料.48
表 4-2 投資人情緒、超額報酬率與條件波動率.....49
表 4-3 投資人情緒、超額報酬率與條件波動率之各子期間
的強度分析.................55
表 4-4 股票報酬率與成交量之單根檢定........58
表 4-5 未來報酬率、過去報酬率與當期成交量之動態交互
關係....................60
表 4-6 未來報酬率、過去報酬率與異常成交量之動態交互
關係....................62
表 4-7 未來報酬率、過去報酬率與異常高成交量之動態交
互關係...................63
表 4-8 未來報酬率、過去報酬率與異常低成交量之動態交
互關係...................65
表 4-9 四種不同量價之動態交互關係與未來報酬率之預測
表 4-10 各變數之敘述性統計資料...........66
表 4-11 高交易活動與低交易活動之統計資料彙總....73
表 4-12 高交易活動與異常報酬率之資料彙總......76
圖目錄
圖 1-1 研究流程圖................. 6
圖 2-1 過度自信假說:投資人自我歸因偏誤與成交量..24
圖 3-1 決定異常交易活動說明圖...........43
圖 3-2 決定異常報酬率說明圖............45
圖 4-1 股票市場循環中的HTURN、HNIT、HReturn與LReturn 80


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