本文基於交易成本理論，運用經濟部「製造業對外投資實況調查」問卷資料，探討台灣廠商至大陸投資之進入模式的選擇。本文建構一追蹤資料來進行獨資與合資的靜態與動態二元選擇分析；二者分析方式之差異，在於動態選擇模型考慮了跨期進入模式選擇的狀態依賴現象。同時，當跨國廠商考慮改變進入模式時，是以海外子公司績效，還是以母公司績效做為模式選擇決策的依據，這也是本研究的重點。

    實證結果發現，當期進入模式的選擇與前期的進入模式，存在很明顯的狀態依賴(或習慣持續)的效果；且跨國廠商考慮是否調整進入模式是受到母公司的全球計劃與策略的影響。此外，跨國廠商的員工總人數、海外子公司相對規模、技術能力(研發密集度)、子公司技術來自於母公司、子公司與母公司的垂直生產關係、海外投資多角化、關係網路的連結，皆與跨國廠商選擇獨資的機率呈現正相關。另一方面，當跨國廠商的國際經驗增加、子公司產品以當地市場為主，則跨國廠商選擇獨資的機率會減少。

Base on the transaction cost theory, this study provides the first large sample empirical study of entry mode choice between WOSs and JVs for Taiwanese FDI in China. This study departs from previous researches in that it uses panel data and focuses on an analysis of the dynamic binary choice model that controls for state dependence of mode choice. 

Empirical evidence suggests a strong state dependence, or habit persistence effect, between current and previous entry modes. Having WOSs in the previous period increases the probability that this entry mode will be chosen in the current period. However, there is also evidence to show that the degree of state dependence decreases if the entry mode in the previous period did not produce good parent firm’s performance. It seems to suggest that the adjustment of entry mode for foreign subsidiaries is related to the MNE’s global plans and strategies, rather than the subsidiary’s performance itself.

The hypothesized effects of transaction cost factors on entry mode choice are supported in a dynamic probit model when the model is appropriately estimated under the assumption of endogenous initial conditions. Specifically, empirical findings indicate that the probability of an MNE’s choice of WOSs is positively associated with the MNE’s total number of employees, relative size of the subsidiary (the amount of investment commitment), and technological capability (R&D intensity) of the entire business. It also increases as there are proprietary technology transfer from parent to subsidiary, vertical parent-subsidiary production relationship, diversification of foreign investment, and relational network connections. On the other hand, the probability of choosing WOSs decreases with an MNE’s international experience and the proportion of the subsidiary’s products sold to the local marke.

第一章	緒論 ………………………………………………………..1
   第一節 研究動機與目的 ………………………………………….1
   第二節 論文架構……………………………………………………3

第二章	進入模式選擇的決定因素………………………………...5
   
第三章	實證模型-靜態與動態二元選擇模型.................13

第四章	資料與變數衡量 .................................16
   第一節	 資料來源與樣本………………………………………...16
   第二節 變數衡量 ......................................16

第五章	實證結果........................................21
   第一節	 敘述統計量 ....................................21
   第二節	 實證結果 ......................................23

第六章	結論 ……………………………………………………...31

參考文獻 ………………………………………………………………32

表目錄

表1 台灣廠商至海外投資的廠商家數……………………………… 16

表2 變數的平均值及標準差  ……………………………………… 22

表3 靜態 probit 選擇模型估計............................ 23

表4 選擇獨資模式的非條件(Unconditional)與條件(Conditional)樣本比例.................................................. 24

表5 動態 probit 選擇模型估計…………………………………… 28

表6 動態probit選擇模型估計–考慮前期績效影響之最大模擬概似Heckman估計..............................................29

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