本文實證研究台灣地區運輸設備、小客車與貨車的進口價格匯率轉嫁效果。實證估計分別採用1996年至2008年之月資料與季資料進行。實證估計結果如下：進口價格的匯率轉嫁效果確實存在，惟轉嫁效果僅為部分並依產業別而異。競爭程度較高的運輸設備轉嫁程度偏低，而受到市場區隔影響的進口小客車之轉嫁彈性較高。此外，短期內貨車的轉嫁彈性值不顯著的負值。長期下，以上三項產品進口價格的匯率轉嫁彈性值皆偏低。此結果顯示，運輸設備類產品具有強烈的市場區隔現象。

This thesis empirically estimate the exchange rate pass through effects of import prices in transportation devices, sedans and trucks in Taiwan. Using monthly as well as quarterly data for the period between 1996 and 2008, the estimated elasticities of exchange rate pass through vary across industries. The exchange rate pass through effects of transportation devices is low because of the highly competitiveness in the domestic market. Highly market segmentation existed between domestic made and foreign made sedans cause the higher pass through effects in this item. There are insignificant negative pass through effect on the prices of imported truck, due perhaps to measurement errors. In the long run, prices of all three transportation equipments broadly or narrowly defined have shown lower elasticities of exchange rate pass through.

目錄

第一章  緒論	1
第一節  研究動機與目的	1
第二節  研究內容	3
第三節  研究架構	5
第二章 產業環境分析	6
第一節  台灣運輸設備生產與進出口概況	7
第二節  台灣小客車與貨車生產與進出口概況	10
第三節  小結	13
第三章  文獻回顧	14
第一節  匯率轉嫁原因之探索	14
第二節  匯率轉嫁實證研究	19
第三節  實證模型架構	23
第四章  實證結果與分析	26
第一節  基本統計	26
第二節  運輸設備實證結果	31
第三節  小客車與貨車實證結果	39
第五章  結論與建議	56
參考文獻	58
附錄	62
附錄一  運輸設備、小客車與貨車資料內容	62
附錄二  各變數月資料與季資料之時間趨勢圖	64
附錄三  台幣、日圓與歐元兌美元匯率基本統計資料	68

圖目錄

圖 1  台灣運輸業各項產品產值佔汽車工業總產值比率	4
圖 2  運輸產業各項產品進口值比率	5

表目錄

表1  2004年到2008年台灣運輸設備產業各業生產值比例	7
表2  2004-2008年台灣運輸設備進口總值前五大國別排行榜	8
表3  2004-2008年台灣運輸設備出口總值前五大國別排行榜	8
表4  2004-2008年台灣進口運輸設備產品前十名排行榜	9
表5  2002年到2008年車輛工業生產價值	11
表6  1997年到2007年台灣汽車銷售量表	11
表7  2004-2008年台灣小客車進口前五大國別排行榜	12
表8  2004-2008年台灣貨車進口前五大國別排行榜	12
表9  原始變數資料來源	28
表10  被解釋變數與解釋變數資料來源	28
表11  月資料敘述統計表	29
表12  季資料原始敘述統計表	30
表13  運輸設備月資料原始值估計結果	32
表14  運輸設備月資料差分值估計結果	34
表15  運輸設備季資料原始值估計結果	36
表16  運輸設備季資料差分值估計結果	38
表17  小客車月資料原始值估計結果	40
表18  小客車月資料差分值估計結果	42
表19  小客車季資料原始值估計結果	44
表20  小客車季資料差分值估計結果	46
表21  貨車月資料原始值估計結果	48
表22  貨車月資料差分值估計結果	50
表23  貨車季資料原始值估計結果	52
表24  貨車季資料差分值估計結果	54

參考文獻
一、中文部分

周建張，2005，「台灣地區各國際商港貨櫃運量分配模式－兼談台灣地區進出口貨櫃南北運轉問題」，運輸計畫季刊 (TSSCI) ，34卷4期，501-523。
柯中逵，2007，「台灣進口物價匯率轉嫁之研究」，國立政治大學國際貿易學系碩士論文。
張亦文，2006，「匯率轉嫁與國內外市場定價：台灣的panel實證」，逢甲大學經濟學系碩士班碩士論文。
張瑞娟、欉清全與史仲華，2007，「貨幣政策與匯率轉嫁之探討─台灣之實證分析」，於臺北總體經濟/計量經濟模型研討會發表之學術論文。
黃恩恩、藍青玉、郭炳伸，2007，「菜單成本與不對稱匯率轉嫁─以台灣進口物價為例」，經濟論文35（4），439-472。
黃琮彬，1997，「產業特性與進口匯率轉嫁效果：以台灣中油石化業為例」，國立政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
魏文琪，2003，「出口物價之匯率轉嫁研究-台灣製造業實證分析」，逢甲大學經濟學系碩士班碩士論文。
羅慧君，1998，「台灣進口汽車匯率轉嫁效果之探討」，國立中興大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
二、英文部分
Álvarez, Roberto, Patricio Jaramillo and Jorge Selaive, 2008, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: The Case of Chile", Central Bank of Chile Working Paper; no. 465.
An, Lian, 2006, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on Bector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions ", MPRA Paper; no. 527.
Barhoumi, Karim, 2006, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Structural Macroeconomic Shocks in Developing Countries: An Empirical Investigation", MPRA Paper; no. 6573.
Burstein, Ariel, Martin Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo, 2005, "Modeling Exchange-Rate Passthrough after Large Devaluations", NBER Working Paper; no. 11638.
Campa, José Manuel and Linda S. Goldberg, 2002, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?", NBER Working Paper; no. 8934.
Campa, José Manuel and Linda S. Goldberg, 2005, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices", The Review of Economics and Statistics; 87(4), pp. 679-690.
Campa, José Manuel, Linda S. Goldberg and José M. González-Mínguez, 2005, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices in the Euro Area", NBER Working Paper; no. 11632.
Campa, José Manuel and José M. González-Mínguez, 2006, "Differences in Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area", European Economic Review; 50(1), pp. 121-145.
Devereux, Michael and Engel, C., 2001, "Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model", NBER Working Paper; no. 8559.
Devereux, Michael B. and Engel Charles, 2002, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect", Journal of Monetary Economics; 49(5), pp. 913-940.
Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987, "Exchange Rate and Prices", The American Economic Review; 77(1), pp. 93-106.
Feenstra, Robert C., Joseph E. Gagnon and Michael M. Knetter, 1993, "Market Share and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in World Automobile Trade", International Finance Discussion Paper; no. 446.
Frankel, Jeffrey, David C. Parsley and Shang-Jin Wei, 2005, "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries? ", NBER Working Paper; no. 11199.
Gagnon, Joseph E. and Michael M. Knetter, 1992, "Markup Adjustment and Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence From Panel Data on Automobile Exports", NBER Working Paper; no. 4123.
Gaulier, Guillaume, Amina Lahreche-Revil and Isabelle Mejean, 2006, "Structural Determinants of the Exchange-Rate Pass-Through", CEPII Working Paper; no. 2006-03.
Ghosh, Amit and Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2007, "A Survey of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Asia", Asian-Pacific Economic Literature; 21(2), pp. 13–28.
Ghosh, Amit and Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2009, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Koera and Thailand: Trends and Determinants", Japan and the World Economy; 21(1), pp.55-70.
Gopinath, Gita, Oleg Itskhoki and Roberto Rigobon, 2007, "Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-Through", NBER Working Paper; no. 13432.
Hahn, Elke, 2007, "The Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks on Sectoral Activity and Prices in the Euro Area", European Central Bank Working Paper; no. 796.
Hooper, Peter and Catherine L. Mann, 1989, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the 1980s: The Case of U.S. Import of Manufactures", Brooking Papers on Economic Activity; 1, pp. 297-337.
Krugman, Paul, 1986, "Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes", NBER Working Paper; no. 1926.
Menon, Jayant, 1995, "Exchange Rates and Import Prices for a Small Open Economy", Applied Economics; 27(3), pp. 297-301.
Mumtaz, Haroon, özlem Oomen and Jian Wang, 2006, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into UK Import Prices", Bank of England Working Paper; no. 312.
Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff, 1995, "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux", Journal of Political Economy; 103(3), pp. 624-660.
Robert, Dekle and Cathy Karnchanasai, 2000, "Exckange Rate Pass-Through to Export Prices", in Gorden de Brouwer and Masahiro Kawai eds. Exchange rate regimes in East Asia; pp. 219-236.
Sek, Siok Sek and Kapsalyamova Zhanna, 2008, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Volatility: Impacts on Domestics Prices in Four Asian Countries", MPRA Paper; no. 11130.
Stulz, Jonas, 2007, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Switzerland: Evidence from Vector Autoregressions", Swiss National Bank Economic Studies; no. 4.
Taylor, John B., 2000, "Low Inflation, Pass-Through, and the Pricing Power of Firms", European Economic Review; 44(7), pp. 1389-1408.
Yang, Jiawen, 1997, "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in U.S. Manufacturing Industries", The Review of Economics and Statistics; 79(1), pp. 95-104.