歐洲一直以來便是俄羅斯最重要的天然氣出口市場。由於俄羅斯的經濟結構相當倚賴能源出口，歐盟則是產能不足需要向外進口大量的天然氣，雙方因此形成了緊密的相互依賴關係。然而天然氣不僅是經濟商品，俄羅斯更將其作為政治槓桿持續性的影響中東歐國家。2009年俄烏天然氣爭議發生後，供應危機連帶衝擊了歐盟的整體經濟與能源安全。顯示出歐洲天然氣基礎設施發展不均和依靠單一供應商、單一運輸路線等嚴重問題。歐盟於是透過法規改革與基礎設施興建等措施減少內部的能源安全風險，並且逐步限制俄羅斯的壟斷性銷售行為。另一方面俄羅斯也在美國頁岩氣的強勢競爭與國內市場環境改變下，調整了對歐洲的天然氣出口策略。使得近十年內歐洲的天然氣市場產生了重大變化。本研究旨在透過互賴理論的架構比較在2009年前、後，歐俄雙方在天然氣貿易上的策略轉變及其影響。了解互賴關係如何改變市場結構，進而減少俄羅斯天然氣的政治性作用。

The EU and Russia are closely interdependent on natural gas trade. However, natural gas is not only an economic commodity in Russia, but also a political lever that continues to affect Central and Eastern European countries. Therefore, the EU has been committed to solving the problem of excessive dependence on Russian natural gas.
When the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute occurred in 2009, the crisis hit the EU's economy and energy security. It shows serious problems such as uneven development of European natural gas infrastructure and its dependence on a single supplier and single transportation route. After that, the EU adopted measures such as regulatory reforms and infrastructure construction to reduce internal energy security risks. At the same time, Russia chooses to adjust its sales strategy to Europe. Because Russia is facing competition from both US shale gas and domestic independent gas companies. In the past decade, these factors have caused major changes in the European natural gas market.
The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the changes in natural gas trade between Europe and Russia over the past 20 years. Understand how interdependence changes the market structure, thereby reducing Russia’s political power in Central and Eastern Europe.

第一章：緒論	1
第一節：研究動機與目的	1
第二節：文獻檢閱	2
第三節：研究途徑與研究方法	7
第四節：研究範圍與研究限制	9
第五節：章節安排	10
第二章：2000年至2009年歐盟和俄羅斯的互賴關係	11
第一節：歐盟與俄羅斯的敏感性	11
第二節：Gazprom在歐洲天然氣市場的早期銷售策略	17
第三節：小結	28
第三章：歐盟天然氣市場的法規改革	30
第一節：第三能源計畫與反壟斷訴訟	30
第二節：歐洲天然氣產業結構的新規範	35
第三節：基礎設施興建與天然氣市場互連	46
第四節：小結	50
第四章：俄羅斯天然氣的產業環境	51
第一節：美國頁岩氣的崛起對歐洲天然氣市場的影響	51
第二節：俄羅斯國內天然氣產業的自由化轉變	59
第三節：小結	65
第五章：結論	67
第一節：歐俄天然氣互賴關係的轉變	67
第二節：理論貢獻	72
參考文獻	74

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