本論文旨在進行對於金融發展與貿易開放兩者間的關係探討。我們透過不同的計量方法探討兩者的關係，促使兩者關係能有更進一步的了解。本文第一章透過計量方法獲得長短期下兩者的關係。第二章則採用聯立方程式，輔以更加合適的估計方法，探討兩者的交互影響關係。
    第一章主要應用Pesaran, Shin and Smith (1999) 所提出的PMG方法進行金融發展與貿易開放的長短期分析。本部份資料針對87個國家，最長從1960年到2005年的年資料，進行長短期分析。結果發現，金融發展對貿易開放短期有負面影響，長期則有正向影響。並在OECD與非OECD國家的資料分群結果下，獲得非OECD國家金融發展對貿易開放短期有負向影響，長期則有正向影響；而OECD國家則金融發展對貿易開放長短期下均無顯著關係。
    第二章旨在採用聯立方程式方法探討金融發展與貿易開放之間的交互影響關係。透過Rigobon (2003)所提出的方法，針對異質性變異程度的不同進行兩方程式的內生性影響的解決傳統認定上的問題。本文資料是採47國不同長短的縱橫資料，期間最長為1960-2000年的年資料型態。結果發現，金融發展與貿易開放之間兩者存在有顯著的關聯性。特別是金融發展程度較高的國家較易造成貿易開放程度的加速，反之，貿易開放程度愈高卻會阻礙金融的發展。本文為增加結果的可靠性，另外採用了兩個不同的貿易開放程度指標，並考慮不同研究學者所提供的一些重要影響變數及組成份子，結果都獲得一致的結論。

This paper empirically re-investigates the relationship between financial development and trade openness. Specifically, in the first essay, we utilize the pooled mean group estimation of Pesaran, Shin and Smith (1999) to analyze the long and short-run relationship between financial development and trade openness. Our empirical results confirmed with the unbalanced panel data for 87 countries over the 1960-2005 period show that a positive long-run relationship between financial development and trade openness coexists with a negative short-run relationship. But when splitting the data into OECD and non-OECD country groups, this finding can be observed only in non-OECD countries. For OECD countries, financial intermediary development has negligible effects on trade.  
   In the second essay, we apply the identification through heteroskedasticity approach of Rigobon (2003) to analyze the two-way feedbacks between financial development and trade openness. Using unbalanced panel data for 47 countries over the 1960-2000 period, we find a strong, two-way causal relationship between the financial sector development and openness to trade. Particularly, a better developed financial sector induces faster openness to trade, whereas the greater openness in trade stymies the development in financial intermediation. The results are robust to different measures of trade openness used, to alternative data splits, and to distinct econometric methods.

目錄

緒論………………………………………………………………1
1. 金融發展與貿易開放兩者關係之探討—PMG方法        4
   1.1前言………………………………………………………4
   1.2 ARDL方法………………………………………………10
   1.3資料與實證結果………………………………………15
      1.3.1資料………………………………………………15
      1.3.2基本結果…………………………………………17
      1.3.3 OECD國家與非OECD國家………………………20
   1.4結論……………………………………………………21
   參考文獻…………………………………………………23

2. 金融發展與貿易開放之關聯性探討—IH方法          32
   2.1 前言……………………………………………………32
   2.2文獻回顧………………………………………………40
      2.2.1金融發展與經濟成長……………………………40
      2.2.2貿易開放與經濟發展……………………………42
      2.2.3金融發展與貿易開放……………………………44
   2.3聯立方程可能產生的偏誤……………………………47
      2.3.1逆迴歸……………………………………………49
      2.3.2異質性認定………………………………………50
      2.3.3加入控制變數……………………………………54
   2.4資料來源………………………………………………56
   2.5實證結果………………………………………………61
      2.5.1堆疊資料分析結果……………………………61
      2.5.2逆迴歸結果………………………………………62
      2.5.3 IH的固定效果分析……………………………64
   2.6結論……………………………………………………68
   參考文獻…………………………………………………70

表圖目錄

   表1.1在不同金融指標下金融發展對貿易開放之長短期影響…26
   表1.2加入控制變數下PMG的實證結果…………………………27
   表1.3 OECD國家與非OECD國家之PMG結果…… ………………28
   表A1 樣本國家列表……………………………………………29
   表A2: 基本統計量………………………………………………30
   表A3: 不同落後期下之PMG結果………………………………31
   
   表2.1各國主要變數之平均統計量 1960-2000………………76
   表2.2基本統計量敘述…………………………………………78
   表2.3堆疊資料下的IH估計結果………………………………79
   表2.4 OLS 固定效果估計……………………………………80
   表2.5 IH 估計下固定效果之結果……………………………81
   表2.6 OLS 隨機效果估計……………………………………82
   表2.7 IH 估計下隨機效果之結果…………………………83
   表B1 OLS 估計下固定效果之結果………… ………………84
   表B2: OLS 估計下隨機效果之結果…………………………85
   圖2.1 高/低金融發展與高/低貿易開放圖…………………86

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