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中文論文名稱 中國經濟的再平衡 ─ 新成長典範對撒哈拉以南非洲貿易與成長之影響
英文論文名稱 Rebalancing China's Economy: The Impact of the New Growth Paradigm on Sub-Saharan Africa's Trade and Growth
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 臺灣與亞太研究全英語碩士學位學程
系所名稱(英) Master's Program in Taiwan and Asia-Pacific Studies, College of International Studies (English-Taugh
學年度 107
學期 2
出版年 108
研究生中文姓名 夏同良
研究生英文姓名 Tolga Yaz
電子信箱 606245032@gms.tku.edu.tw
學號 606245032
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2019-06-21
論文頁數 78頁
口試委員 指導教授-柯大衛
委員-陳思寬
委員-萬哲鈺
中文關鍵字 中國  再平衡  溢出效應  出口  經濟成長  撒哈拉以南非洲 
英文關鍵字 China  rebalancing  spillovers  export  economic growth  sub-Saharan Africa 
學科別分類
中文摘要 在1980年代和1990年代出色的表現之後,中國經濟成長趨緩,經濟驅動力從出口和投資轉向消費和政府支出。這種相較緩慢但有助於持續成長的轉型卻可能對其貿易夥伴產生負面溢出效應,特別是商品出口國,其中許多是在非洲。本文評估了中國在貿易和成長方面對撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)經濟體致力再度平衡的經濟影響。運用2000至2017年期間31個國家的成長迴歸模型和面板數據 (panel data) 進行分析,結果顯示,中國是SSA許多經濟體的重要貿易夥伴,其經濟放緩可能對該地區產生不利影響。進而發現,中國人均GDP成長率每下降1%會導致SSA人均成長率下降0.17-0.31%。另外,某些重要係數指出一個強勁發展的非洲區域間貿易網絡,抵銷了部分中國再平衡溢出效應所帶來的潛在影響。
英文摘要 After the remarkable economic performance of the 1980s and 1990s, China’s growth has been slowing and the economic drivers have been shifting from exports and investment to consumption and government spending. This transition with slower, but more sustainable, growth is more likely to generate negative spillovers to its trading partners, particularly commodity exporters, many of which are in Africa. This thesis assesses the economic impact of China’s rebalancing efforts on sub-Saharan African economies with respect to the trade and growth. Using a growth regression model and panel data analysis that covers 31 countries for the period 2000 to 2017, the results show that China is a significant trading partner for many sub-Saharan African economies, and its economic slowdown is likely to adversely affect sub-Saharan African growth in the future. It is found that a one-percent decrease in China’s GDP growth per capita leads to 0.17-0.31 percent decrease on the SSA’s per capita growth. On the other hand, some significant coefficients point to a robustly developing African interregional trade network that offsets to an extent the potential impact of the China’s spillovers from its rebalancing.
論文目次 TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter I: Introduction 1
1.1. Research Question 3
1.2. Research Motivation 4
1.3. Research Methodology 7
1.4. Scope and Limitations 10
1.5. Summary of Results 11

Chapter II: Literature Review 12
2.1. Rebalancing in China’s Economy 12
2.2. Spillovers from the Transition 15
2.3. China’s Impact on Africa’s Economy 18

Chapter III: China’s Growth and Transition 20
3.1. Structural Imbalances in China 20
3.2. Toward Sustainable Growth Path 22
3.3. Impact of the Transition on the World and Africa 23

Chapter IV: Empirical Modeling and Analysis 27
4.1. The Empirical Model 27
4.2. Data Sources and Transformations 33
4.3. Interpretation of Empirical Results Table by Table Analysis 37
4.4. A Summary of Empirical Results 58

Chapter V: Conclusions 60
Appendices 62
References 76

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
Table 1.1: Analytical Country Classifications 8
Table 2.1: Rebalancing Scorecard 2016 14

Figure 1.1: Growth of GDP per capita: China and World (billion USD) 1
Figure 1.2: Sub-Saharan Africa's Trade with China (billion USD) 5
Figure 1.3: Impacts of Trade Partners’ Growth by Percent 11
Figure 3.1: China’s Total Consumption (percent of GDP by quarterly) 21
Figure 3.2: China's National Accounts (percent of GDP by quarterly) 22
Figure 3.3: Sub-Saharan Africa’s Total Exports and Imports by partner 23
Figure 3.4: Chinese FDI vs. US FDI to Africa (billion USD) 25
Figure 4.1: SSA’s Export in Percentage of Total Export 46
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