本研究之目的在於建置一個以雲端為基礎的飛航作業風險評估架構，透過雲端架構提供的飛航風險推論服務，可以找出高風險的航班且進一步找出影響航班的關鍵風險因素。並且透過制訂飛航作業風險評估的資料交換標準來協助整個雲端運算架構的運作。而本研究和國內知名的國際航空公司合作，透過實際的航班資料來進行本研究系統的驗證和性能上的評估，以確保在實務上具有可行性。

This study presents the implementation of a Flight Operations Risk Assessment System (FORAS) based on cloud computing framework. Based on a developed cloud fuzzy inference engine, high risk flight and the critical factors that contribute the most to the flight can be identified. The data exchange standards for flight operation risk assessment are also developed to support the cloud computing framework. Experiments based on practical data are conducted for system validation and performance evaluation.

目錄
第一章	緒論	1
1.1	研究背景與動機	1
1.2	研究目的	5
1.3	研究架構與流程	5
第二章	文獻探討	7
2.1	雲端運算(Cloud Computing)	7
2.2	XML(eXtensible Markup Language)	9
2.3	飛航風險評估方法、技術	11
2.3.1	航空安全風險模型(ASRM)	12
2.3.2	故障形式、效應和嚴重度分析(FMECA)	13
2.3.3	小結	13
2.4	飛航作業風險評估系統(FORAS)	15
2.4.1	FORAS背景介紹	15
2.4.2	FORAS系統建構分析方法	16
2.5	模糊推論系統(FIS)	18
2.5.1	模糊集合理論(Fuzzy Set Theory)	18
2.5.2	模糊推論系統架構	19
2.5.3	模糊規則庫(Fuzzy Rule Base)	20
2.5.4	模糊化與解模糊化	21
2.5.5	模糊推論	21
第三章	風險評估架構	24
3.1	系統架構	24
3.2	飛航風險推論機(FORAS Inference Engine)	26
3.3	關鍵路徑評估推論機(CPI Evaluation Engine)	29
第四章	FORAS資料交換標準	33
4.1	XML文件分類	33
4.2	飛航風險推論XML	33
4.3	關鍵路徑評估XML	38
第五章	系統實作	42
5.1	客戶端系統架構	42
5.2	雲端系統架構	44
5.3	雲端運算服務的建置及存取	48
5.3.1	建置服務	48
5.3.2	存取服務	50
第六章	結論與建議	56
參考文獻	57


圖目錄
圖1-1全球飛航事故發生率	2
圖1-2研究流程與架構	6
圖2 1雲端運算模型	8
圖2 2 FORAS系統建構圖	16
圖2 3模糊推論系統架構圖	19
圖2 4風險因素關係圖	22
圖3-1雲端架構圖	25
圖3-2風險因素樹狀結構	27
圖3-3原FORAS架構Pilot Experience節點之處理	28
圖3-4本架構Pilot Experience節點之處理	29
圖3-5節點的比較、挑選及航班風險值計算流程	32
圖4-1飛航風險推論輸入的XML Schema	36
圖4-2飛航風險推論輸出的XML Schema	37
圖4-3 CPI推論XML的XML Schema	41
圖5-1 Control Monitor 使用者介面	43
圖5-2 FORAS Work Station使用者介面	44
圖5-3飛航風險模式建構核心	46
圖5-4模型維護平台	46
圖5-5存取ASP.NET Web Service	49
圖5-6風險因素模型範例	51
圖5-7飛航風險推論輸入的XML文件範例	52
圖5-8飛航風險推論輸出的XML文件範例	53
圖5-9 CPI推論輸入的XML文件範例	54
圖5-10 CPI推論輸出的XML文件範例	55


表目錄
表1-1 IATA風險因素四大構面	3
表2-1 XML在各領域的相關研究	10
表2-2飛航風險評估方法優缺點比較	14
表2-3模糊規則矩陣	20
表5-1系統執行環境	42
表5-2飛航風險推論運算時間	47
表5-3 CPI推論運算時間	48

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