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系統識別號 U0002-2306201917024300
中文論文名稱 阿爾扎赫領土衝突:以俄羅斯介入為案例之研究
英文論文名稱 Territorial Dispute in Artsakh: A Case Study of Russian Intervention
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
學年度 107
學期 2
出版年 108
研究生中文姓名 俞文舉
研究生英文姓名 Wen-Chu Yu
學號 604330059
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2019-06-17
論文頁數 142頁
口試委員 指導教授-李大中
委員-盧業中
委員-楊順利
中文關鍵字 阿爾扎赫  納哥爾諾卡拉巴赫  領土衝突  國際調停  俄羅斯聯邦 
英文關鍵字 Artsakh  Nagorno-Karabakh  Territorial dispute  International mediation  Russian Federation 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學政治學
學科別社會科學區域研究
中文摘要   自第一次世界大戰結束後的巴黎和會召開以來,外高加索地區新成立的三個國家中其二─亞美尼亞與亞塞拜然之間,針對納哥爾諾卡拉巴赫,或稱阿爾扎赫地區,產生領土紛爭。兩國於冷戰結束後重獲獨立,但其分歧不僅未能解決反而越演越烈,造成持續六年的納哥爾諾卡拉巴赫戰爭之爆發。
  後冷戰時期,世界各地受蘇聯解體之影響,許多前蘇聯勢力範圍因其退出而產生權力真空,促使當地勢力相互爭奪領導權。域外強權如美國、歐盟等試圖以民主、自由、國際貿易等手段影響新興國家,以掌握重要資源、能源與戰略要地。然而,俄羅斯聯邦從蘇聯的廢墟中崛起,雖然能力不比已消逝的蘇聯或目前的超級強權美國,但其對周邊區域,例如東歐、中亞及外高加索地區的掌握能力,畢竟因其國土緊鄰之故,仍舊有莫大的影響能力。
  亞美尼亞、亞塞拜然與身為衝突標的物的阿爾扎赫,最終接受俄羅斯聯邦調停,簽訂停火協議。此後俄羅斯聯邦持續作為最重要的第三方調停者,與以歐洲國家為主組成的明斯克集團合作,共同推動本衝突的調停進程,試圖終局性地解決此一衝突。然而,此衝突自1988年爆發至今已逾三十年,顯示衝突之解決並不容易。本研究相信,透過深入地探討衝突發生之原因、理解衝突各方之利益、以及第三方調停者的介入動機與策略等等,或許可以展現出1994年為何得以成功簽訂停火協議,而後卻陷入停滯的可能問題。
英文摘要   Since the end of World War I and Paris Peace Conference, two of three newly founded states in Transcaucasia – Armenia and Azerbaijan, had territorial dispute on Nagorno-Karabakh or so-called Artsakh region. These two nations regained its independence after the Cold War, but their disagreements couldn’t be solved and only flared up more bitter, caused the burst of “Nagorno-Karabakh War” which lasting six years.
  In Post-Cold War era, due to the dissolution of Soviet Union and decline of its power, there were many power vacuum that made local powers to compete against each other for grasping leadership. Great powers such as United States, European Union were trying to influence new countries by means of democracy, freedom and international trade, to control important resources, energies, and strategic points. However, Russian Federation rose from Soviet ruins, though its abilities couldn’t compare to former Soviet Union or superpower like United States nowadays, but still had a good influence over its border regions, such as Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Transcaucasia.
  Armenia, Azerbaijan and the disputed Artsakh region itself accepted mediation from Russian Federation, finally signed a ceasefire agreement. After then, Russian Federation as the most important mediator, co-operates with Minsk Group which organized by European countries, and together facilitate mediation process, trying to solve this conflict once and for all. However, it has been more than thirty years since the conflict exploded, showing that it is not so easy to make a settlement. This essay believes that, by deeply researching reasons which caused conflict, interests of conflict parties, motives and strategies of third party mediators, can reveal the success of 1994 ceasefire agreement, and possible problems which make mediation trapping into stalemate now.
論文目次 目錄

圖次..............................................................................................................................VI
表次............................................................................................................................VII

第一章 緒論................................................................................................................1
 第一節 研究背景....................................................................................................1
 第二節 研究動機與目的........................................................................................4
 第三節 文獻檢閱....................................................................................................5
 第四節 研究範圍..................................................................................................19
 第五節 研究途徑與方法......................................................................................21
 第六節 研究架構與章節安排..............................................................................21

第二章 歷史背景研究..............................................................................................23
 第一節 古典時期(8th BCE-476 CE)..............................................................24
 第二節 中世紀(476-1453 CE)........................................................................32
 第三節 近現代(1453 CE-)..............................................................................43
 第四節 小結..........................................................................................................52

第三章 俄羅斯調停進程研究..................................................................................54
 第一節 俄羅斯於六年戰爭期間之調停..............................................................55
 第二節 俄羅斯於六年戰爭結束後之調停..........................................................64
 第三節 俄羅斯作為明斯克集團共同主席國之調停..........................................69
 第四節 小結..........................................................................................................81

第四章 阿爾扎赫案例調停分析..............................................................................84
 第一節 衝突當事國動機分析..............................................................................86
 第二節 俄羅斯介入動機分析............................................................................101
 第三節 俄羅斯權力來源與策略選擇分析........................................................110
 第四節 調停結果之分析....................................................................................121
 第五節 小結........................................................................................................123

第五章 結論............................................................................................................125
 第一節 研究發現................................................................................................125
 第二節 未來研究方向之建議............................................................................128

參考書目....................................................................................................................130














圖次

圖1-1 阿爾扎赫共和國地理位置圖..........................................................................3
圖1-2 研究架構圖....................................................................................................22
圖2-1 外高加索地形圖............................................................................................24
圖2-2 亞美尼亞王國鼎盛時期疆域圖....................................................................27
圖2-3 公元387至591年,外高加索地區邊界線變化圖....................................30
圖2-4 亞美尼亞七王國疆域圖................................................................................37
圖2-5 奇里乞亞亞美尼亞王國疆域圖....................................................................39
圖2-6 公元945年,哈里發帝國高加索區域疆域圖............................................41
圖2-7 公元1481至1683年,鄂圖曼帝國疆域圖................................................44
圖2-8 亞美尼亞、亞塞拜然、阿爾扎赫歷史時序圖............................................53
圖3-1 六年戰爭期間重要城鎮與戰略地點圖........................................................56
圖3-2 四日戰爭主要戰鬥發生地點示意圖............................................................67
圖3-3 明斯克集團成員國示意圖............................................................................69
圖3-4 重要調停事件時序與各國領導人在位期間對照圖....................................83
圖4-1 亞塞拜然能源輸出管線示意圖....................................................................94








表次

表3-1 俄羅斯聯邦重要調停進程時序表................................................................68
表3-2 明斯克集團重要調停進程時序表................................................................80
表4-1 亞美尼亞與亞塞拜然全球軍事化指數比較表............................................96
表4-2 亞美尼亞、亞塞拜然與阿爾扎赫經濟數據比較表(上)........................99
表4-3 亞美尼亞、亞塞拜然與阿爾扎赫經濟數據比較表(下)........................99
表4-4 衝突當事國接受調停動機分析表..............................................................100
表4-5 調停參與國介入調停動機分析表..............................................................110
表4-6 調停者權力來源分析表..............................................................................119
表4-7 調停者策略使用建議表..............................................................................120
表4-8 調停者建議策略與實際策略對照表..........................................................120
表4-9 調停結果評估表..........................................................................................122
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(四)非官方組織聲明與文件
Broers, Laurence. The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict: Defaulting to War. Chatham House, 2016. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/publications/
research/NK%20paper%2024082016%20WEB.pdf
Gurbanov, Ilgar. “Karabakh Peace Talks Break Down as Azerbaijan and Armenia Operate at Cross-Purposes.” The Jamestown Foundation, 2019. https://jamestown.org/program/karabakh-peace-talks-break-down-as-azerbaijan-and-armenia-operate-at-cross-purposes/
Military expenditure by country, in constant (2017) US$ m., 1988-2018, SIPRI, 2019.
http://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/Data%20for%20all%20countries%20from%201988%E2%80%932018%20in%20constant%20%282017%29%20USD%20%28pdf%29.pdf
Nagorno-Karabakh: New Opening, or More Peril? International Crisis Group, 2016. https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/azerbaijan/nagorno-karabakh-new-opening-or-more-peril
Parfenov, Evgeni and Renny Nancholas. “The Caucasus – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia: Emergency and Assistance.” IFRC, 1996. https://www.ifrc.org/docs/
  appeals/EMERG98/399803.PDF
Wezeman, Pieter D., Aude Fleurant, Alexandra Kuimova, Nan Tian and Siemon T. Wezeman. “Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2017.” SIPRI, 2018. https://
www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2018-03/fssipri_at2017_0.pdf
(五)網路新聞
Armenia seeks to boost population. BBC News, 2007. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/
europe/6382703.stm
Armenia, Azerbaijan Sign Joint Declaration Over Nagorno-Karabakh. RFE/RL, 2008. https://www.rferl.org/a/Kremlin_Hosts_Peace_Talks_Over_NagornoKarabakh/1337420.html
Armenian, Azerbaijani Clashes Continue in Karabakh. RFE/RL, 2010. http://www.
rferl.org/a/Armenian_Azebaijani_Clashes_Continue_In_Karabakh/2078581.html
Azerbaijan inaugurates European gas pipeline. Hürriyet Daily News, 2018.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/azerbaijan-inaugurates-european-gas- pipeline-132528
Azerbaijan Says Shot Down Armenian Military Helicopter. RFE/RL, 2014. https://
  www.rferl.org/a/armenia-azerbaijan-karabakh-helicopter-down/26687375.html
Azerbaijani Kills Armenian at Peace Program. The Washington Post, 2004.
  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54979-2004Feb19.html
Belarus Ready to ‘Unite’ With Russia, Lukasheko Says. The Moscow Times, 2019. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/02/15/were-ready-unite-with-russia-belarus-leader-lukashenko-says-a64517
Danielyan, Emil. “Russian State Presence in Armenian Energy Sector Declining.” eurasianet, 2016. https://eurasianet.org/russian-state-presence-armenian-energy-sector-declining
de Waal, Thomas. “Nagorno-Karabakh’s cocktail of conflict explodes again.” BBC News, 2016. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35954969
Fatal Armenian-Azeri border clash. BBC News, 2008. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/
europe/7278483.stm
French Senate eyes genocide bill: Turkey bristles. Dawn, 2012. https://www.dawn.
com/news/690249/french-senate-eyes-genocide-bill-turkey-bristles.
Fuller, Liz. “Armenian, Azerbaijani Presidents Agree On Preamble To ‘Madrid
  Principles’.” reliefweb, 2010. https://reliefweb.int/report/armenia/armenian-
  azerbaijani-presidents-agree-preamble-madrid-principles
Harutyunyan, Mariam and Emil Guliyev. “Azerbaijan, Armenia forces clash as Putin urges ceasefire.” YAHOO!, 2016. https://www.yahoo.com/news/armenia-azerbaijan-fighting-surges-along-karabakh-frontline-090716406.html
Hostage Stand-off in Armenian parliament. BBC News, 1999. http://news.bbc.co.uk/
2/hi/europe/488383.stm
Huseynov, Javid. “Karabakh Peace Progress Must Be Fully Inclusive.” RFE/RL, 2009. https://www.rferl.org/a/Karabakh_Peace_Process_Must_Be_Fully_
Inclusive_/1812056.html
Jacobs, Frank. “Transnistrian Time-Slip.” The New York Times, 2012. https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/22/transnistrian-time-slip/
Keller, Bill. “Armenia Yielding Claim on Enclave.” The New York Times, 1991. https://www.nytimes.com/1991/09/23/world/armenia-yielding-claim-on-enclave.
html?scp=1&sq=Armenia%20Yielding%20Claim%20on%20Enclave&st=cse
Lucian Kim. “A New Law in Lativa Aims to Preserve National Language by Limiting Russian In Schools.” NPR, 2018. https://www.npr.org/2018/10/28/654142363/a-new-law-in-latvia-aims-to-preserve-national-language-by-limiting-russian-in-sc
Mejlumyan, Ani. “Armenian ex-president Kocharyan arrested again.” eurasianet, 2018. https://eurasianet.org/armenian-ex-president-kocharyan-arrested-again
Nagorny Karabakh conflict: 109 detainees released. reliefweb, 1996. https://reliefweb.
int/report/azerbaijan/nagorny-karabakh-conflict-109-detainees-released
Nagorno-Karabakh violence: Worst clashes in decades kill dozens. BBC News, 2016. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35949991
New Mining Complex Inaugurated in Karabakh. Asbarez, 2016. http://asbarez.com/
143995/new-mining-complex-inaugurated-in-karabakh/
Ohanyan, Anna. “Armenia’s Democratic Dreams.” Foreign Policy, 2018.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/07/armenias-democratic-dreams/
Russia styles itself lead mediator in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. EURACTIV, 2016. https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/russia-styles-itself-lead-mediator-in-nagorno-karabakh-conflict/
Russia’s State Duma welcomes Astrakhan declaration on Nagorno-Karabakh. TODAY.AZ, 2010. http://www.today.az/news/politics/75736.html
Soviets Halve Estimate Of Earthquake Deaths. The New York Times, 1988. https://www.nytimes.com/1988/12/30/world/soviets-halve-estimate-of-earthquake-deaths.html?scp=87&sq=Armenia+Earthquake&st=nyt
Specter, Michael. “Armenians Suffer Painfully in War, But With Pride and Determination.” The New York Times, 1994. https://www.nytimes.com/
1994/07/15/world/armenians-suffer-painfully-in-war-but-with-pride-and-determination.html
Turkey: Mass arrests after coup bid quashed, says PM. BBC News, 2016. https://
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36813924
Turkey’s downing of Russian warplane – what we know. BBC News, 2015. https://
www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581
(六)官方網站
Artsakh Republic National Statistical Service. http://stat-nkr.am/en
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Artsakh. http://www.nkr.am/
Official website of the President of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. http://www.
president.nkr.am/
Official web-site of President of Azerbaijan Republic. https://en.president.az/
OSCE Minsk Group. http://www.osce.org/mg/
President of Russia. http://en.kremlin.ru/
Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia. https://www.armstat.am/en/
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. http://www.mid.ru/
  main_en
The Russian Government. http://government.ru/en/
The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. https://www.stat.
gov.az/?lang=en
UN Peacemaker. https://peacemaker.un.org/
UNSCR. http://unscr.com/
World Bank. http://www.worldbank.org/
(七)其他
Bonn International Center for Conversion. https://www.bicc.de/
Droysens, Gustav. Allgemeiner Historischer Handatlas, Leipzig: Velhagen &
  Klasing, 1886. http://www.maproom.org/00/08/present.php?m=0077
Encyclopædia Iranica. http://www.iranicaonline.org/
Google Map. https://www.google.com.tw/maps/
Mapchart.net. https://mapchart.net/world.html
Maproom. http://www.maproom.org/
Persus Digital Library. http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/
Strabo. ed. H. L. Jones. The Geography of Strabo, Vol. 11, chapter 14 section 5,
London: William Heinemann Ltd., 1924. http://data.perseus.org/citations/
urn:cts:greekLit:tlg0099.tlg001.perseus-eng1:11.14.5
Shepherd, William R. The Historical Atlas, NY: Henry Holt and Company, 1923.
  https://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/shepherd/ottoman_empire_1481-
  1683.jpg
University of Texas Libraries. https://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/
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