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系統識別號 U0002-2306201414404000
中文論文名稱 總體經濟與台灣房地產價格之非線性研究
英文論文名稱 Non-linear Relationship between Macroeconomics and Taiwan Real Estate Research
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Banking and Finance
學年度 102
學期 2
出版年 103
研究生中文姓名 黃倧賦
研究生英文姓名 Tsung-Fu Huang
學號 600530280
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2014-06-23
論文頁數 50頁
口試委員 指導教授-聶建中
共同指導教授-陳達新
委員-謝劍平
委員-劉文謙
委員-聶建中
中文關鍵字 平滑移轉  房地產  總體經濟因素 
英文關鍵字 macroeconomic factors  real estate  Smooth Transition Model 
學科別分類
中文摘要 近年來房地產價格漲幅已形成一股民怨,要求政府打房聲浪不斷,在此期間,國際經濟情勢也發生了重大轉變,歷經金融海嘯、歐債危機到量化寬鬆政策,房地產價格也因此受到了波及,故總體經濟因素的變化會使房地產價格影響,此研究透過總體經濟面的因素,分析2001年第1季至2013年第4季的資料,觀察台北市、新北市、台中市三個都會區之房價,透過非線性方法之平滑移轉模型,以貨幣供給成長率、五大行庫承做房貸利率、消費者物價指數成長率及經濟成長率作為解釋變數,並以五大行庫承做房貸利率作為門檻變數,探討利率於不同範圍內,對房地產價格指數受總體經濟因素影響產生何種變化。實證結果發現,利率在小於門檻值,或者門檻值附近時,此三地房地產價格與房貸利率皆具有顯著的相關性,政府可藉由觀察房貸利率介於何者區間,進行對利率的調控,藉此影響市場上的貨幣供給量,同時提升或降低個人或企業的資金成本,利用資金成本的管控,對不同地區的房市加以調控。
英文摘要 Real estate prices rose has become an grievances, Besides, the international economic situation has also undergone a major change, after the financial crisis, the European debt crisis to the quantitative easing policy, real estate prices have been affected. Changes in the overall economic factors will affect real estate prices, general economic factors in this study through the surface, analyze the data for the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2013, observing Taipei, New Taipei City, Taichung City. Through smooth migration model nonlinear methods to money supply growth rate, the five banks that undertook the mortgage rates, consumer price index growth rate and economic growth rate as the explanatory variable, and the five banks that undertook the mortgage. By the overall economic factors which impact on the real estate price index changes. Empirical results show that the interest rate is less than the threshold value, or when near threshold, this three real estate prices and mortgage rates were significantly correlated with the government may be observed whichever interval between mortgage interest rates, conducted for the regulation of interest rates, by This impact of money supply on the market, while raising or lowering the cost of capital by individuals and businesses, the use of cost of capital controls, to be regulated in different parts of the housing market.
論文目次 謝辭: I
摘要: II
英文摘要: III
目錄: IV
表目錄: V
圖目錄: VI
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 5
第三節 研究架構與流程 6
第二章 文獻探討 7
第一節 貨幣政策與房地產價格之分析及相關文獻 7
第二節 物價指數與房地產價格之分析及相關文獻 9
第三節 經濟成長與房地產價格之分析及相關文獻 11
第四節 其他總體經濟因素與房地產價格之分析與相關文獻 12
第三章 研究方法 14
第一節 研究資料 14
第二節 單根檢定法 15
第三節 平滑移轉迴歸模型 18
第四章 實證結果與分析 25
第一節 變數定義 25
第二節 敘述統計 27
第三節 單根檢定 28
第四節 線性檢定 31
第五節 轉換函數之檢定 32
第六節 模型參數之估計與檢定 33
第五章 結論 42
參考文獻 44


表目錄
表4-1 各變數代號表 27
表4-2-1 樣本敘述統計量 28
表4-3-1 房價指數與總體經濟變數之ADF、PP檢定結果 29
表4-3-2房價指數與總體經濟變數之NP、KPSS檢定結果 30
表4-4-1 LM-Type之線性檢定 31
表4-5-1 轉換函數之檢定 32
表4-6-1 總體經濟變數對台北市房價指數之參數估計 35
表4-6-2 利率為門檻值下,解釋變數對台北市房價之影響 36
表4-6-3 總體經濟變數對新北市房價指數之參數估計38
表4-6-4 利率為門檻值下,解釋變數對新北市房價之影響 39
表4-6-5 總體經濟變數對台中市房價指數之參數估計 41
表4-6-6 利率為門檻值下,解釋變數對台中市房價之影響 41

圖目錄
圖1-3-1: 研究流程圖 6
圖3-2-1: 羅吉斯型函數圖形 22
圖3-2-2: 指數型函數圖形 23
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