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中文論文名稱 國際資本移動對台灣產業在美國競爭力的影響
英文論文名稱 The Impact of International Capital Flows on the Competitiveness of Taiwan’s Industry in the United States
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際企業學系碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Executive Master's Program Of Business Administration (EMBA) In International Busines
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生中文姓名 陳玲華
研究生英文姓名 Ling-Hua Chen
學號 798550157
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2011-06-09
論文頁數 64頁
口試委員 指導教授-賈昭南
委員-李選卿
委員-謝振環
中文關鍵字 實質匯率  競爭力  國際資本移動  直接投資  證券投資 
英文關鍵字 Real Exchange Rate  Competitiveness  International Capital Flows  Foreign Direct Investments  Portfolio Investments 
學科別分類
中文摘要 台灣是一個小型開放的經濟體,整體經濟的發展,受國際貿易的影響相當大,其中美國又是台灣最主要的出口國,因此探討過去台灣產業在美國市場競爭力的變化,將有助於檢討台灣的經濟發展政策。
本研究以實質匯率代表競爭力,依據經濟學家的定義,實質匯率其實就是國內外相對物價經名目匯率調整後的結果。依據經濟學原理,若總體需求不變,則物價取決於供給面。供給面愈強者,物價水準愈低;反之,供給面較弱國家的物價水準即愈高。因此,實質匯率是一種指標,可比較兩個國家競爭力的差異。當實質匯率上升時,表示本國的生產力相對外國的生產力提升,也就是說,本國的競爭力的提升相對優於外國的競爭力。
本文以美國生產者物價指數代表國外物價,以台灣躉售物價指數代表國內物價,以政府消費性支出、貿易條件、開放程度及生產力代表控制變數,以國際收支帳中的外人來台直接投資、證券投資及其他投資代表國際資本移動變數,實證探索1990年至2009年間,國際資本流入對台灣產業競爭力的影響,利用實質匯率概念所計得的產業競爭力指標的迴歸方程式估計結果顯示,證券股權投資對提升產業競爭力有顯著的正面影響。利用標準化變數所估計的結果顯示,影響程度最大者為證券股權投資,其次為直接投資。
英文摘要 Taiwan is a small open economy, and the international trade has a great impact on the overall economic development. The United States is Taiwan’s main exporter, so exploring changes of the competitiveness of Taiwan's industry in the United States will help to review Taiwan’s economic development policies.
In this study, real exchange rate represents competitiveness. According to economists’ definition, real exchange rate is the outcome adjusted by the relative prices between domestics and foreign through nominal exchange rate. Based on principles of economics, if the aggregate demand is fixed, the price level depends on the aggregate supply. Therefore, the more the aggregate supply, the lower the price level. On the other hand, the less the aggregate supply, the higher the price level. Hence, real exchange rate is an indicator which compares competitiveness between two countries. Increasing real exchange rate represents that domestic productivity is higher than foreign productivity. That is to say, domestics are more competitive than foreign.
This thesis uses the producer price index in the U.S. to represent the foreign price level, and the wholesale price index in Taiwan to represent the domestic price level. The control variables includes government consumption expenditure, terms of trade, trade openness and productivity. The variables of international capital inflows includes foreign direct investments, portfolio investments and other investments appear in the financial account of the balance of payments. This thesis empirically explores the effects of the various types of international capital inflows on the competitiveness of Taiwan’s industry during the period between 1990 and 2009. Adopting the concept of real exchange rate as proxy for the competitiveness index, regression analysis has shown that portfolio investments has brought about significant positive effects. Regression analysis using standardized variables reveals that the magnitudes of the effects of the four types capital inflows vary whereas the portfolio investments plays the most important role while the foreign direct investments the second.

論文目次 目錄
頁次
表目錄 III
圖目錄 IV
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 台灣產業的現況 7
1.3 本文研究架構 10
第二章 文獻回顧與本文研究方法 12
2.1 國家競爭力與國際資本移動 12
2.1.1 實質匯率與國家競爭力 12
2.1.2 國際資本移動的演變與型態 13
2.2 國際資本移動與實質匯率的實證研究 17
2.2.1 經濟理論中均衡實質匯率的決定 17
2.2.2 實質匯率的實證研究 21
2.2.3 本文研究方法 24
2.3 實證模型與估計程序 24
2.3.1 實證模型 24
2.3.2 本文實證估計程序 26
第三章 實證研究 28
3.1 資料來源與特徵 28
3.1.1 產業競爭力變數 29
3.1.2 解釋變數 30
3.1.3 控制變數 37
3.2 國際資本移動影響的實證估計 41
3.2.1 國際資本移動對競爭力指標的實證結果 41
3.2.2 各種資本移動影響程度之比較 53
3.2.3 實證結果小結 55
第四章 結論 59
參考文獻 61

表目錄
頁次
表3-1 研究資料來源(台灣經濟新報TEJ) 28
表3-2 經濟變數敘述統計資料表 29
表3-3 控制變數相關係數矩陣表 41
表3-4 國際資本移動對競爭力影響之實證估計結果 43
表3-5國際資本移動對競爭力影響之實證估計結果(落後一期) 47
表3-6 標準化後國際資本移動對競爭力影響之實證估計結果 54
表3-7 實證估計結果彙整表 56

圖目錄
頁次
圖1-1 台灣地區產業競爭力指標走勢圖 6
圖3-1 直接投資與競爭力指標走勢比較圖 32
圖3-2 證券股權投資與競爭力指標走勢比較圖 32
圖3-3 證券債權投資與競爭力指標走勢比較圖 33
圖3-4 其他投資與競爭力指標走勢比較圖 34
圖3-5 證券投資與競爭力指標走勢比較圖 35
圖3-6 直接投資+證券股權投資與競爭力指標走勢比較圖 36
圖3-7 其他投資+證券債權投資與競爭力指標走勢比較圖 37
圖3-8 政府消費性支出佔GDP比率與競爭力指標走勢比較圖 38
圖3-9 開放程度與競爭力指標走勢比較圖 39
圖3-10 生產力與競爭力指標走勢比較圖 40
圖3-11 貿易條件與競爭力指標走勢比較圖 40



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