§ 瀏覽學位論文書目資料
  
系統識別號 U0002-2305201616435000
DOI 10.6846/TKU.2016.00731
論文名稱(中文) 投資人情緒會影響ETF資訊效率嗎?是改善還是削弱?
論文名稱(英文) Does Investor Sentiment Affect ETF Information Efficiency? Is Improving or Impairing?
第三語言論文名稱
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中文) 財務金融學系博士班
系所名稱(英文) Department of Banking and Finance
外國學位學校名稱
外國學位學院名稱
外國學位研究所名稱
學年度 104
學期 2
出版年 105
研究生(中文) 曾永慶
研究生(英文) Yung-Ching Tseng
學號 801530071
學位類別 博士
語言別 英文
第二語言別
口試日期 2016-05-19
論文頁數 65頁
口試委員 指導教授 - 李沃牆
委員 - 吳中書
委員 - 凌㱣寶
委員 - 陳達新
委員 - 洪明欽
委員 - 周恆志
委員 - 李沃牆
關鍵字(中) 恐慌指數
亞洲市場 ETF
波動叢聚效應
厚尾
金融環境條件
關鍵字(英) Volatility index
Asian ETF market
Volatility-clustering effect
Heavy tail
Monetary environmental conditions
第三語言關鍵字
學科別分類
中文摘要
本研究主要是分析投資人情緒對於指數股票型基金(ETFs)流動性的影響,並捕捉投資人情緒的改變對於ETF流動性影響的效果,本研究使用美國恐慌指數(VIX)作為投資人情緒的代理變數。我們的樣本數據主要集中在亞洲市場的ETF,實證結果顯示,投資人情緒對於這些亞洲國家ETF的流動性有顯著的影響。
為了準確地捕捉到流動性的特點,本研究採用GARCH模型來檢測ETF的流動性是否具有波動叢聚效應的現象,並且採用Polite(2008) 之GARCH厚尾修正模型,它是修正GARCH模型在資料分配型態補捉的缺失,厚尾係數表示厚尾承受風險承度,此部份亦為本論文創新之處。實證結果顯示亞洲市場ETF具有流動性波動叢聚的效應。此外,我們的研究還發現投資人情緒和不同國家的ETF流動性會有顯著不同程度的影響關係。從風險管理和證券投資的觀點,本文建議考慮採用投資人情緒這個因子來納入其投資的決策。
英文摘要
This study aims to analyze the effect of investor’s sentiment on the Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) liquidity to capture the various investment sentiment for the ETFs liquidity changes, using the Volatility Index (VIX) as a proxy variable to observe the market characteristics. Our sample data mainly focus on the Asia ETF market, and the empirical results show that the degree of market investor sentiment plays an important role in the ETF liquidity within these Asia countries. In order to accurately capture the liquidity characteristics, this study adopt the GARCH model to check whether ETF liquidity has a volatility-clustering effect or not, by adding Polite (2008) financial data with heavy tail characteristic, to correct the distribution pattern of missing data on GARCH model, which is an new idea in this paper. The empirical result shows that ETF has liquidity and volatility-clustering effect, which means there is a better or poor liquidity phenomenon in a specific period, which depends on monetary environment conditions and market investors’ expectation. In addition, our research also found that VIX and ETF liquidity would have a significantly different relationship with the development of different countries. From the viewpoints of hedging market risk and portfolio investment, this paper suggests investor to take consideration of the sentiment factors into their investment decision, and timely readjust the investment weight of ETF product.
第三語言摘要
論文目次
CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT	I
ABSTRACT IN CHINESE	II
ABSTRACT IN ENGLISH	III
CONTENTS 	IV
LIST OF TABLES	VI
LIST OF FIGURES	VII

CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION	1
1.1 Background	1
1.2 Research Objectives	7
1.3 Description of the Chapters and Research Papers Flowchart	9
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW	11
2.1 Relationship between Investor Sentiment and Trading Behavior	11
2.2 Relationship between Trading Behavior and Volatility	15
2.3 Discussion on Relationship between Liquidity and Trading Behavior,
Quantitative Easing	16
CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY	19
3.1 Variables	19
3.2 Model Specification	25
CHAPTER 4 EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND ANALYSIS	35
4.1 Basic Statistics	37
4.2 Empirical Results Analysis	54
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS	59
REFERENCES	61

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 Data source and description	35
Table 2 Contractionary and expansionary monetary periods	37
Table 3 Descriptive statistics from	42
Table 4 Unit root test	43
Table 5 KLV Liquidity indicator – Japan	44
Table 6 KLV Liquidity indicator – Malaysia	45
Table 7 KLV Liquidity indicator – Singapore	46
Table 8 KLV Liquidity indicator – Korea	47
Table 9 KLV Liquidity indicator – Taiwan	48
Table 10 ETF Turnover rate – Japan	49
Table 11 ETF Turnover rate – Malaysia	50
Table 12 ETF Turnover rate – Singapore	51
Table 13 ETF Turnover rate – Korea	52
Table 14 ETF Turnover rate – Taiwan	53

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 The research flow chart in this dissertation	10
參考文獻
Baker, M. and Wurgler, J. 2006. Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns. Journal of Finance 61: 1645–1680.
Bao, J., Pan, J. and Wang, J. 2011. The Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds. Journal of Finance 66(3), 911-946.
Barclay, M.J. 1997. Bid–ask Spreads and the Avoidance of Odd-eighth Quotes on the Nasdaq: An Examination of Exchange Listings. Journal of Financial Economics 45: 35-60.
Basu, D., Hung, C.H., Oomen, R., and Tremme, A. 2006. When to Pick the Losers: Do Sentiment Indicators Improve Dynamic Asset Allocation? EFA 2006 Zurich Meetings Paper.
Berkman, H. and Nguyen, N.H. 2010. Domestic Liquidity and Cross-Listing in the United States. Journal of Banking and Finance 34: 1139–1151
Bollerslev, T. 1986. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity,  Journal of Econometrics 31: 307-327,1986
Boscaljon, B. and Clark, J. 2013. Do Large Shocks in VIX Signal a Flight-to-Safety in the Gold Market?. Journal of Applied Finance 2: 120-131
Britten-Jones, M., and Neuberger, A. 2000. Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility. Journal of Finance 55: 839–866
Brown, G., and Cliff, M. 2004. Investor Sentiment and the Near-Term Stock Market, Journal of Empirical Finance 11: 1–27,2004
Chau, F., Deesomsak, R. and Lau, M.C.K. 2011. Investor Sentiment and Feedback Trading: Evidence from the Exchange-traded Fund Markets. International Review of Financial Analysis 20, 292–305
Chiu, J., Chung, H., Ho, K.Y., and Wang, G.H.K. 2012. Funding Liquidity and Equity Liquidity in the Subprime Crisis Period: Evidence from the ETF Market. Journal of Banking & Finance 36: 2660-267.
Chiu, J., Chung, H., and K.Y. Ho, K.Y. 2014. Fear Sentiment, Liquidity, and Trading Behavior: Evidence from the Index ETF Market. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 17(3): 1-25.
Chordia, T., Sarkar, A., and Subrahmanyam, A. 2005. An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity. Review of Financial Studies 18: 85–129.
Chung, S.L., Hung, C.H., and Yeh, C.Y. 2012. When Does Investor Sentiment Predict Stock Returns?. Journal of Empirical Finance 19: 217–240.
Copeland, T.E., and Galai, D. 1983. Information Effects on the Bid–Ask Spread. Journal of Finance 38: 1457–1470
Cox, J.C., and Rubinstein, M. 1985. Options Markets, Prentice Hall.
Darolles, S., Fol, G.L., and Mero, G. 2015. Measuring the Liquidity Part of Volume. Journal of Banking & Finance 50: 92-105.
Edelen, R.M., Marcus, A.J. and Tehranian, H. 2010. Relative Sentiment and Stock Returns. Financial Analysts Journal 66(4): 20–32.
Engle, R.F. 1982. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of UK Inflation. Econometrica 50: 987-1008.
Fujiwara, K. 2006. Does the Japanese Closed-End Fund Puzzle Exist? An Empirical Study of the Efficiency of the Financial Market in Japan. International Journal of Business 11(1): 35-47.
Gastineau, G.L. 1977. An Index of Listed Option Premiums. Financial Analysts Journal 33(3): 70–75
Gerhold, S., Guasoni, P., Muhle-Karbe, J., and Schachermayer, W. 2014. Transaction Costs, Trading Volume, and the Liquidity Premium. Finance and Stochastics 18(1): 1-37.
Glabadanidis, P. 2014. The Market Timing Power of Moving Averages: Evidence from US REITs and REIT Indexes. International Review of Finance 14(2): 161–202.
Gutierrez, J. A., Martinez, V., and Tse, Y. 2009. Where Does Return and Volatility Come from? The Case of Asian ETFs. International Review of Economics and Finance 18: 671-679.
He, Y., Wang, J., and Wei, K.C.J. 2014. A Comprehensive Study of Liquidity Before and After SEOs and SEO under Pricing. Journal of Financial Markets 20, 61-78.
Herbst, A.F., Wu, J.S. and Ho, C.P. 2014. Quantitative Easing in An Open Economy-Not a Liquidity but a Reserve Trap. Global Finance Journal 25(1): 1-16.
Ho, C., and Hung, C. 2009. Investor Sentiment as Conditioning Information in Asset Pricing. Journal of Banking and Finance 33: 892–903.
Huang, C.M., and Chang, H.Y. 2009. The Effects of Basis Information of Stock Market on Spot Market Returns: The Application of Heavy-Tailed Model. Taiwan Banking & Finance Quarterly 10(1): 81-106. (in Chinese ) 
Hung, J.C., Lee, M.C., and Liu, H.C. 2008. Estimation of Value-at-Risk for Energy Commodities via Fat-Tailed GARCH Models. Energy Economics 30(3): 1173-1191.
Ivanov, S.I. 2013. The Influence of ETFs on the Price Discovery of Gold, Silver and Oil. Journal of Economics and Finance 37(3): 453-462.
Ivanov, S.I., Frank J.J., and Zaima, J.K. 2013. Analysis of DJIA, S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 ETFs and their Influence on Price Discovery. Global Finance Journal 24: 171–187.
Jiang, G., and Tian, Y. 2005. Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content. Review of Financial Studies 18: 1305–1342.
Karolyi, G.A., Lee, K.H., and Van Dijk, M.A. 2012. Understanding Commonality in Liquidity Around the World. Journal of Financial Economics 105: 82–112.
Kryzanowski, L., Lazrak, S., and Rakita, I. 2010. Behavior of Liquidity and Returns Around Canadian Seasoned Equity Offerings. Journal of Banking and Finance 34: 2954–2967.
Kurov, A. 2008. Investor Sentiment, Trading Behavior and Informational Efficiency in Index Futures Markets. Financial Review 43: 107–127.
Lee, H.C., Tseng, Y.C., and Yang, C.J. 2014. Commonality in Liquidity, Liquidity Distribution, and Financial Crisis: Evidence from Country ETFs. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 29: 35-58.
Lemmon, M. and Portniaguina, E. 2006. Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence. Review of Financial Studies 19: 1499–1529.
Li, M.S., Klein, D. and Zhao, X. 2012. Empirical Analysis of ETF Intraday Trading. Financial Services Review 21: 149-176.
Li, X., and Zhang, B. 2008. Stock Market Behavior and Investor Sentiment: Evidence from China. Frontiers of Business Research in China 2(2): 277–282.
Nielsen, M.O., and Shimotsu, K. 2007. Determining the Cointegration Rank in Nonstationary Fractional System by the Exact Local Whittle Approach. Journal of Econometrics 141: 574–596.
Pastor, L., and Stambaugh, R.F. 2003. Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Political Economy 111: 642–685.
Phillips, P.C.B. and Perron, P. 1988. Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Regression. Biometrika 75: 335-346.
Rossi, E. and Santucci de Magistris, P. 2013. Long Memory and Tail Dependence in Trading Volume and Volatility. Journal of Empirical Finance 22: 94–112.
Said, S. and Dickey, D. 1984. Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order. Biometrika 71(3): 599-607.
Lybek, M.T. and Sarr, M.A. 2002. Measuring Liquidity in Financial Markets. International Monetary Fund 2-232: 1-64.
Schmeling, M. 2009. Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Some International Evidence. Journal of Empirical Finance 16: 394–408.
Stoll, H.R. 2000. Friction. Journal of Finance 55: 1479–1514.
Wang, J. 2013. Liquidity Commonality Among Asian Equity Markets. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 21: 1209–1231.
Watanabe, M., 2008. Price Volatility and Investor Behavior in an Overlapping Generations Model with Information Asymmetry. The Journal of Finance 63(1): 229-272.
Whaley, R.E. 2000. The Investor Fear Gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management 26(3): 12-17.
Yu, J., and Yuan, Y. 2011. Investor Sentiment and the Mean-Variance Relation. Journal of Financial Economics 100: 367–381.
論文全文使用權限
校內
校內紙本論文立即公開
同意電子論文全文授權校園內公開
校內電子論文立即公開
校外
同意授權
校外電子論文立即公開

如有問題,歡迎洽詢!
圖書館數位資訊組 (02)2621-5656 轉 2487 或 來信