身為境內擁有諸多穆斯林國家的印尼，因宗教信仰衍生而來的飲食與生活習慣，本就造成其牛肉市場具有迫切需求，再加以經濟水準的提升，導致國民所得增加與飲食西化，皆助長了牛肉需求量。澳大利亞，曾於2009年對印度活肉牛出口額達到頂峰。但2010年後，印尼政府卻展開活牛進口限制政策，導致活牛出口國受到嚴重打擊。近來澳大利亞牛肉出口量日漸減少，為因應印尼貿易政策反覆之影響，其積極爭取拓展中國牛肉為其牛肉相關產品之輸出國。本論文透過內容分析與資料探勘，旨在透過澳大利亞活肉牛出口過程以及印尼減少澳洲活肉牛進口，直到印尼與澳大利亞再度恢復雙邊貿易，甚至是中國大陸成為澳大利亞牛肉進口第一大國之過程進行探討，希望了解並釐清貿易發展特徵與變化。結果顯示，成長中的經濟體，如，印尼與中國，雖因眾多國民宗教信仰關係，對牛肉本就具有大量需求，再加上經濟成長，人民生活水準改善，更促使對牛肉之需求大幅提升，而最快滿足其內需的方式，就是從澳大利亞直接進口牛肉，但是對國家發展來說，印尼與中國的牛隻飼養產業皆尚未發展健全，因此也需要仰賴澳大利亞的活肉牛進口，不僅可以提升牛肉市長發展，同時亦可協助發展本國相關產業。一旦印、中二國境內的牛隻養殖相關展業發展日益完善後，其可能就會於政策方面著手降低牛隻進口，從而影響澳大利亞肉牛輸出，並形成貿易遷移或趨勢變化。

A number of Muslim in Indonesia, derived from religious beliefs derived from the diet and living habits, the beef market has caused its urgent needs, coupled with the economic level of upgrading, resulting in increased national income and Westernization of the diet, Beef demand. Australia, in 2009, exports of live cattle to India reached its peak. However, after 2010, the Indonesian government has launched a live cattle import restrictions, resulting in a serious blow to live cattle exporting countries. The recent decline in Australian live cattle exports, in response to the repeated impact of Indonesia's trade policy, its positive efforts to expand China's beef-related products for the export of its beef. Through the content analysis and data exploration, the purpose of this paper is to explore the process of exporting live cattle in Australia and reducing the import of live cattle in Indonesia until the resumption of bilateral trade between Indonesia and Australia and even the process of mainland China becoming Australia's largest importer of beef. I hope to understand and clarify the trade development characteristics and changes. Results show that the growing economies, such as Indonesia and China, despite a large number of national religious beliefs, the beef has a lot of demand, coupled with economic growth, improved living standards, but also prompted a substantial increase in demand for beef , And the fastest way to meet their domestic needs is to import beef directly from Australia, but for national development, Indonesia and China's cattle breeding industry are not yet developed and sound, it also needs to rely on Australian live beef imports, not only can enhance Beef development of the mayor, but also to help develop their own related industries. Once the development of cattle-related exhibitions in China and India has improved, it may be possible to reduce the import of cattle by policy, thus affecting the export of live cattle in Australia and creating trade migration or change

摘 要	i
Abstract	ii
目錄	iv
圖目錄	vi
表目錄	vii
第一章  緒論	1
  第一節  研究動機與研究目的	1
  第二節  研究架構與研究方法	4
  第三節  文獻探討	7
第二章  印尼牛肉的產量跟需求	15
  第一節  印尼肉牛產業發展及需求	15
  第二節  印尼主要的肉牛品種和分佈	16
  第三節  印尼肉牛飼養模式	17
第三章  印尼進口活肉牛之概況	22
  第一節  印尼進口活肉牛之現況分析	22
  第二節  澳洲對印尼活肉牛產業之重要性	24
  第三節  屠宰場宰殺活牛事件	25
  第四節  印尼政府的進口限制	27
第四章  澳洲出口活肉牛之概況	29
  第一節  澳洲活肉牛之現況分析	29
  第二節  澳洲出口用活肉牛的供應情況	30
  第三節  澳洲活肉牛出口動向	31
第五章  澳洲出口牛肉之轉向	36
  第一節  中澳自由貿易協定概況	36
  第二節  中國牛肉需求概況	42
  第三節  中國牛肉貿易情況分析	45
  第四節  印尼、中國牛肉需求與澳洲肉牛貿易發展趨勢	52
第六章  結論與討論	55
參考文獻	65
圖3-1 1995~2050年印尼人口都市化	23
圖3-2 2011~2015年印尼肉牛數量和進口量	23
圖4-1 2012-2015年澳大利亞活牛出口至印尼百分比統計(包括乳牛)	33
圖4-2 2015-2016年澳大利亞活牛出口百分比統計(包括乳牛)	34
圖4-3 2015-2016年澳大利亞活牛出口百分比統計(包括乳牛)	35
圖5-1 1995~2014中國牛期末數量年度趨勢	43
圖5-2 2007~2015年中國牛肉進出口量年度趨勢	44
圖5-3 2014~2015年中國牛肉價格月度變化情形	45
圖5-4 2015年中國牛肉進口量與同比增加速率月度趨勢	47
圖5-5 2015年中國牛肉出口量與同比增加速率月度趨勢	47
圖5-6 2015年中國牛肉進口價格月度變化情況	48
圖5-7 2007~2015年中國冷凍牛肉進口與同比增加速率年度趨勢	50
圖5-8 2014~2015年中國冷凍牛肉進口量月度趨勢	50
圖5-9 2014~2015年中國冷凍牛肉進口單價月度趨勢	51
圖5-10 2015年中國冷凍牛肉進口來源國家分布	52
表5-1 中澳自由貿易協定內涵摘要	38
表5-2 韓國、日本與澳大利亞自由貿易協定對澳經濟影響內容摘要	40
表6-1  2008-2014年澳大利亞牛肉產業統計摘要	56
表6-2  2013-2015年澳大利亞活牛隻出口市場數量	57

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