在台灣空污法修正案通過後，社會上開始有正反兩面的聲音出現，有人認為台灣空污的主因，可歸咎於民生用汽機車，但也有不少民眾認為工廠、電廠的污染物比起汽機車更可見許多。再者，本研究將採用綜合各污染物的空氣污染指標作為本研究之環境壓力指標，以及從過去文獻發現討論台灣空污議題都未考量空間外溢效果進行估計。因此，本研究以台灣本島19個縣市1998年至2016年共19年空氣品質不良日數比率、汽機車密度以及平均每人每年可支配所得，並使用空間計量方法，探討我國汽機車排放是否會明顯惡化空氣品質，亦驗證從過去經濟發展犧牲環境，到現在累積了財富有無回饋到環境保護上，並比較有無考量空間外溢效果的估計結果。
    本研究結果發現，移動污染源、火力發電廠、沙塵暴以及豬隻都會顯著加劇空污問題，而工廠可能因為工廠防污設備改良等原因，使其對空污為負向影響。除此之外，本研究還驗證了台灣的經濟成長與環境壓力指標是呈現倒U型曲線關係，平均每人每年可支配所得水準達到25.7萬時，之後隨著經濟繼續成長，空氣污染逐漸獲得改善。空間因子會使空氣品質顯著惡化，即鄰近縣市的污染物會飄向該縣市使該地空污情況更加嚴重。若未考量空間外溢效果會造成污染低估的問題，這可能會使政府民眾意識不到空污的嚴重性。

After the government approved the amendment of the Air Pollution Law in Taiwan, there have been positive and negative opinions in the society. Some people think that the main cause of air pollution in Taiwan can be attributed to the use of the vehicles for people’s livelihood, but there are also many people who think that the proportion of factories and power plants pollution is higher than the vehicles. Furthermore, this study will use an air pollution indicator of various pollutants as the environmental stress index of this study, and estimate the effect of spatial spillovers because the discussion of the air pollution issues in Taiwan seldom considered the effect of spatial spillovers in the past literature.
    Therefore, this study is based on a panel data of the ratio of low air quality days, the density of vehicle and per capita annual disposable income which in 19 cities of Taiwan from 1998 to 2016. The purpose of the research is to explore whether vehicle emission makes air pollution worse significantly and to examine the relationship between economic growth and air quality index by using a spatial econometric approach.
    The results of this study show that vehicle emission, thermal power plant, sandstorm and pig will make air pollution worse significantly. And the results also confirm the hypothesis of inverted U-shape Environmental Kuznets Curve. After per capita annual disposable income reaches NT$25700, the air pollution will improve gradually. In addition, we also find that the positive effect of spatial variable on the air pollution, that is, the pollution of the nearby cities will make the air quality of the local city worse. However, the people will not be aware of the seriousness of the air pollution if the effect of spatial spillover is not considered.

第一章  緒論	1
第一節  研究動機與目的	1
第二節  研究架構	3
第二章  文獻回顧	5
第一節  空氣污染與環境Kuznets曲線相關文獻回顧	5
第二節  空間計量相關文獻回顧	8
第三章  資料來源與分析	10
第一節  資料來源	10
第二節  變數定義	10
第三節  變數敘述統計與分析	13
第四章  研究方法與模型探討	16
第一節  追蹤資料分析法	17
第二節  空間計量分析法	18
第五章  實證結果與分析	21
第一節  追蹤資料迴歸結果	21
第二節  空間自相關分析檢定結果	24
第三節  空間計量迴歸結果	26
第六章  結論	29
參考文獻	31

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