系統識別號 | U0002-2206201619151400 |
---|---|
DOI | 10.6846/TKU.2016.00698 |
論文名稱(中文) | 分析美國最低工資法的就業效應 :計量經濟模型之應用 |
論文名稱(英文) | The Effect of Minimum Wages on US Unemployment Rates: An Econometric Analysis |
第三語言論文名稱 | |
校院名稱 | 淡江大學 |
系所名稱(中文) | 臺灣與亞太研究全英語碩士學位學程 |
系所名稱(英文) | Master's Program in Taiwan and Asia-Pacific Studies, College of International Studies (English-Taught Program) |
外國學位學校名稱 | |
外國學位學院名稱 | |
外國學位研究所名稱 | |
學年度 | 104 |
學期 | 2 |
出版年 | 105 |
研究生(中文) | 宋宜璇 |
研究生(英文) | Yi-Hsuan Sung |
學號 | 603240036 |
學位類別 | 碩士 |
語言別 | 英文 |
第二語言別 | 英文 |
口試日期 | 2016-06-14 |
論文頁數 | 60頁 |
口試委員 |
指導教授
-
柯大衛
委員 - 陳思寬 委員 - 萬哲鈺 |
關鍵字(中) |
青年失業率 最低工資 美國 共整合 |
關鍵字(英) |
Minimum Wage Unemployment The Untied States Federal Econometric Analysis |
第三語言關鍵字 | |
學科別分類 | |
中文摘要 |
美國最低工資自1940年代至今被視為最爭議性議題之一。近年來許多團體相信提高最低工資有助於青年就業率之提升,同時於2015年超過六百位美國經濟學家達成共識,並且相信最低工資的提升不會對失業率造成影響。但從經濟基礎的供需曲線下研究後,我們可以了解到提高最低工資,的確會有一定數量的影響。因此,此環節值得我們作更深入的研究。 在本篇論文中,研究者以文獻為基礎,討論美國經濟學發展過程中對於提高最低工資看法之演變。從1940年代大部分學者對於提高最低工資皆持負面看法,直到1993年 David Card 和Alan Krueger以素食餐廳為研究基礎,提出此議題並不會使得低技術勞工失業,反而因著有較高的薪資,勞動者更加願意投入市場,使得失業率降低,並且可改善人民生活水準。 而在本文中,研究者在實證分析中以計量經濟模型為基礎,使用共整合模型分析青年失業率與美國聯邦最低工資之長期關係,並使用誤差修正模型討論其短期之回歸關係。經過本論文探究之後,首先,我們發現提高最低工資的確會增加青年失業率,其次,現今美國許多州政府提議將最低工資自一小時7.2美元提升為一小時15美元,假設此為聯邦最低工資,則美國將增加大約四十萬青年失業口。 |
英文摘要 |
The effect of minimum wage on the US youth unemployment rate has been a controversial issue since 1940s. The reason we chose this topic because of it has attracted considerable attention recently in the world. Many groups see the minimum wage as a ready tool for improving living and equalizing the distribution of income. From the literal review we may understand the trend towards acceptance of a minimum wage has been diversity. David Card and Alan Krueger claimed that if government increases the minimum wage, the unemployment displacement effect is very small. But from other articles, some of economists cannot agree with them. From this point view, we decided to look into the effect of minimum wage on the Untied States. In the empirical analysis chapter, first of all, we used cointegration regression to analyses the long run relations between the federal minimum wage and youth unemployment rate. Secondly, we tried to use error correction mechanisms to understand the short run relations of these two major issues. In the empirical analysis and finding, we find a significant long run and short run relation between youth unemployment rate and federal minimum wage. However, raising the minimum wage has been a controversial issue for more then half century, and we may understand that if the Untied States government increases the minimum wage to $15 per hour (many states already did in 2015), then it may cost up to 400,000 young unemployment workers in the society. |
第三語言摘要 | |
論文目次 |
Table of Contents Figures and Tables .................................................................................II Chapter 1. Introduction .........................................................................1 1.1 Research Topic ....................................................................2 1.2 Research Motivation ...........................................................4 1.3 Research Methodology .....................................................10 1.4 Research Limitations and Constraints ...........................11 1.5 Expected Results from the Research ...............................12 Chapter 2. Literature Review .............................................................14 Chapter 3. Theoretical Aspects of the Minimum Wage ...................21 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................22 3.2 A Labor Share Model of The Minimum Wage ..............23 3.3 The Typical Partial Equilibrium Model of The Minimum Wage.................................................................27 3.4 Summary of Theoretical Considerations........................34 Chapter 4. Empirical Analysis and Findings .....................................36 4.1 Basic Empirical Model .....................................................36 4.2 Data Sources and Limitations .........................................41 4.3 Cointegration Regression Analysis .................................44 4.4 Error Correction Mechanisms Analysis ........................48 4.5 Quantile Regression Analysis ..........................................51 4.6 Summary to Empirical Chapter .....................................53 Chapter 5. Overall Conclusions ..........................................................55 Bibliography ...........................................................................................58 Figures and Tables Table 1.1....................................................................................................8 Figure 2.1................................................................................................16 Table 2.1..................................................................................................19 Figure 3.1.................................................................................................29 Figure 3.2.................................................................................................30 Figure 3.3.................................................................................................33 Figure 4.1.................................................................................................37 Table 4.1..................................................................................................38 Table 4.2..................................................................................................42 Table 4.3..................................................................................................43 Table 4.4..................................................................................................43 Table 4.5..................................................................................................45 Table 4.6..................................................................................................49 Figure 4.2.................................................................................................52 Figure 4.3.................................................................................................53 |
參考文獻 |
Allegretto, Sylvia, Arindrajit Dube, and Michael Reich. (2011). Do Minimum Wages Really Reduce Teen Employment? Accounting for Heterogeneity and Selectivity in State Panel Data, Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper No.166-08. Brozen, Yale. (1962). Minimum Wage Rates and Household Workers. Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 5 (October): 103-109. Card, David. (1992a). Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum Wage. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, vol. 46 (October): 22-37. Card, David. (1992b). Do Minimum Wages Reduce Employment? A Case Study of California, 1987-89. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, vol. 46 (October): 38-54. Card, David, and Krueger Alan B. (1993). Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The National Bureau of Economic Research. Working paper no.4509 (October) DeSilver, Drew. “5 Facts about the Minimum Wage.”, Pew Research Center, July 23, 2015. Douty, H.M. (1960). Some Effects of the $1.00 Minimum Wage in the United States. Economica, vol. 27 (May): 137-147. Dube, Arindrajit, T. William Lester, and Michael Reich. “Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 92, no. 4 (2010): 945–64. Gallasch, H.F., Jr. (1975). Minimum Wages and the Farm Labor Market. Southern Economic Journal, vol. 41 (January): 480-491. Greenhouse, Steven, and Jana Kasperkevic. “Fight for $15 Swells into Largest Protest by Low-Wage Workers in US History.” The Guardian, April 15, 2015, sec. US news. Hirsch, Barry, Kaufman, Bruce E. and Zelenska, Tetyana. (2011). Minimum Wage Channels of Adjustment. Industrial Relations 2015, vol.54, no.2: 188-239 (revised version). Krueger, Alan B. “Teaching the Minimum Wage in Econ 101 in Light of the New Economics of the Minimum Wage.” Journal of Economic Education 32 (2001): 243–58. Kaun, David E. (1965). Minimum Wages, Factor Substitution and the Marginal Producer. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 79 (August): 478-486. Neumark, David, and William Wascher. (2006). “Minimum Wages and Employment: A Review of Evidence from the New Minimum Wage Research,”. Retrieved from National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 12663. Peterson, John M. (1957). Employment Effects of Minimum Wages, 1938-50. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 65 (October): 412-430. Peterson, John M., and Stewart, Charles T., Jr. (1969). Employment Effects of Minimum Wage Rates. Washington: American Enterprise Institute. Rottenberg, Simon. (1981). The Economics of Legal Minimum Wages. Washington American Enterprise Institute. Sabia, Joseph, Richard Bukhauser, and Benjamin Hansen. (2012). Are the Effects of Minimum Wage Increases Always Small? New Evidence from a Case Study of New Samuelson, Paul, and William Nordhaus. Economics. 19th edition. Boston: McGraw-Hill Education, 2009. Silos, Pierre L. and Mark E. Wohar, (2005), Estimating Taylor-type Rules: An Unbalanced Regression, Econometric Analysis of Economic and Financial Time Series/Part B, Advances in Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20, pp. 239-276. Stigler, George J. (1946). The Economics of Minimum Wage Legislation. American Economic Review, vol. 36 (June): 358-365. Weich, Finis. (1974). Minimum Wage Legislation in the United States*. Economic Inquiry 12, no.3 (Spring 1974): 285-318. |
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