本研究探討美國經濟大蕭條以來的幾次重大金融危機經驗。歷史上曾發生四次重大的金融危機，分別是1929年代的大蕭條、1980美國儲貸危機、1992年北歐金融危機以及1990年至2003年的日本金融危機。歸納其原因，包含匯率不穩、銀行倒閉、外債過高等等。本研究認為從2000年以來的全球低利率環境下金融機構之過度槓桿,金融法規鬆綁與管理階層對風險之判斷錯誤是造成目前金融危機之主要原因。
　　2007年暴發次級房貸危機之星星之火，經一年後演變成雷曼兄弟破產之金融海嘯，投資人無法得知海嘯何時結束，且因過去高信評之組合式產品所引起之巨大損失，為避免於金融海嘯之信用暴險，金融機構投資人紛紛買入無信用風險之美國國債。然而此項信用保守操作策略卻隱含利率反轉下之市場風險與低資產報酬率，不同於過去之依賴模型，本研究提供其它資產投資策略，來說服高階主管與董事會。利用修正式德菲法，我們找出10種對於選擇國外投資標的之關鍵因素，因應金融危機下之市場風險之投資組合，並利用理想點法，挑選出因應金融危機下信用風險之投資組合。本研究顯示專業金融機構可將修正式德菲法與理想點法之群體決策應用於投資面。

This article offers a review of past financial crises since the Great Depression. There are four important financial crises in history, including the Great Depression of 1929, the Savings and Loan Crisis of 1980s, the Scandinavian Banking Crisis of 1992 and Japan’s Banking Crisis during 1990 - 2003. The causes behind these crises include currency instability, bankruptcy of banks, excessive foreign debts, etc. This article attributes the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions at global low interest environment since 2000; banking deregulation and false assurance of risk taken by the management are the cause of the financial tsunami. 
    The financial crisis continued from sub-prime crisis 2007 and, through contagion effects, has spread globally and became financial tsunami after the failure of Lehman Brothers. No one knows when the financial crisis will end. With the huge loss incurred from the failure of high credit rating structured products, the institutional investors at banking industry chased credit risk free US treasuries to avoid credit risk exposure at financial tsunami. However, this credit conserve strategy exposed the market risk when interest rate reversal and low return on assets at the portfolio. This study provides some portfolio strategies other than models based ones to convince the management and the board.
    Using the Modified Delphi Method, we identified 10 attributes that are important in choosing overseas investment objectives. For stock portfolio, the study selects an appropriate combination of equalities using the Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution method (TOPSIS) to deal with credit risk during the credit crunch in this financial tsunami. This study shows that financial institutions could use Modified Delphi Method and TOPSIS in-group decision in the investment sector.

Contents
Contents 	………………………………………………………………………….	I
List of Tables	…………………………………………………………………………….	III
List of Figures	…………………………………………………………………………….	IV
Chapter 1 	Introduction……………………………………………………………………....	1
1.1	Research Background and Motivation…………………………………………	1
1.2	Research Questions ……………………………………………………………	4
1.3	Research Purposes ……………………………………………………………..	8
Chapter 2	Literature Review……………………………………………………………….	11
2.1	Past Main Crises and Government Intervention Mechanisms…..……………	11
2.2	US Sub-prime Crises of 2007.………………..………………………….........	21
2.3	Important Findings from the Past Financial Crises……………………….......	24
2.4	A View  of Japan Experience…...……………………………………………..	27
2.5	Reflections from the Current Crisis……………………………………….......	32
2.6	The Investment Strategy Formation…………………………………………..	35
Chapter 3	Data and Methodology………………………………………………………….	39
3.1	Investigate Procedure……………….………………………………...............	39
3.2	Data Selection ……………………………………...........................................	41
3.3	Analysis Method………………………….......................................................	42
Chapter 4	Findings and Discussion…………………………….…………………………..	54
4.1	The Stock Portfolio Selection by Treasury Department of a Commercial……	
	Bank…………………………...........................................................................	54
4.2	The Results for the TOPSIS Analysis ...............................................................	55
4.3	The Results for the Modified Delphi Method……………………..………….	59
4.4	The Findings Regarding the TBTF Item……………………………………..	61
4.5	Discussion……………………………………………………………………..	65
Chapter 5	Conclusion and Suggestion…………………………..…………………………	72
5.1	The Failure of Lehman Brothers: Turning an US Sub-prime Crisis into 	
	Financial Tsunami……………………………………………………………….	72
5.2	Credit Crunches within Crises…………..............................................................	73
5.3	More Nations or Organizations are Affected at the Financial Tsunami...............	74
5.4	Quantitative Models………….............................................................................	74
5.5	Qualitative Approach…………............................................................................	76
References	…………..……………………………………………………………………	81
A.	Journals or Books.................................................................................................	81
B.	Institutional Reports………….............................................................................	86
C.	Network Source……............................................................................................	86

List of Tables
Table 2.1	Institutions Set Up by Government to Intervene in Previous Financial Crises…	26
Table 4.1	Statistics Summary of Each Portfolio.………......................................................	55
Table 4.2	The Combination Yields, Standard Deviation, Average Cash Dividend, ROE, 	
	Current Ratio and Debt to Net Worth Ratio of Each Portfolio.……………….	56
Table 4.3	Criteria Weights…………..………………………….…….................................	57
Table 4.4	Normalized Matrix. …….....................................................................................	57
Table 4.5	Separation Measure and Ranking of Each Alternative.…………………………	58
Table 4.6	The Results for 11 Attributes at Three Round Questionnaires…………….........	60
Table 4.7	Revenue of Bear Stearns from 2005 to 2007………….………………..............	65
Table 4.8	Revenue of Lehman Brothers from 2005 to 2007………………………………	65

List of Figures
Figure 2.1	S and P 500 during 1930 – 1940………………………...……………………..	13
Figure 2.2	S and P 500 banking Index during 1986– 1994………….………...…..……...	15
Figure 2.3	Swedish banking Index during 1990 – 1995…………………………………..	17
Figure 2.4	Four Phases of the Credit Crisis……………………...……………..…………	24
Figure 2.5	Japanese Stock Index: Nikkei 225 ………...................................................…..	28
Figure 4.1	Lehman Brothers Total Issuing Bond Globally………………….……………	63
Figure 4.2	Bear Stearns Total Issuing Bond Globally…......……………………………...	63
Figure 4.3	Lehman Brothers Debt Issuing at Netherlands………..……..……………...…	64
Figure 4.4	Lehman Brothers Debt Issuing at England..…………………………………..	64
Figure 4.5	Lehman Brothers Debt Issuing at German…………………………….………	64

A.	Journals or books

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Ackermann, J. (2008). The sub-prime crisis and its consequences. Journal of Financial Stability, 4(4), 329-337. 
Adler, M. & Ziglio, E. (Eds.). (1996). Gazing into the oracle: The Delphi method and its application to social policy and public health. London: Jessica Kingsley.
Adrian, P. & Diana, P. (2009). Requiem for market discipline and the specter of TBTF in Japanese banking. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. 49, 1429-1459.
Barberis, N., Shleifer, A. & Vishny, T. (1998). A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 307-343.
Beech, I.B. (2001). The Delphi Approach: Recent Applications in Health Care. Nurse Researcher, 8(4), 38-47.
Black, F. & Schiles, M. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. Journal of Political Economic, 81(3), 637-654
Bowles, J.N. (1999). The Delphi Technique. Nursing Standard, 13(3), 32-36.
Brewer, E., Genay, H. & Hunter, W.C. (2003). Does the Japanese stock market price bank-risk? Evidence from financial firm failures. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 35, 4.
Bruche, M. & Carlos, G A. (2010). Recovery rates, default probabilities, and the credit cycle. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34, 754-764.
Caprio, G., Asil, D.K. & Kane, E.D. (2010). The 2007 Meltdown in Structured Securitization: Searching for Lessons not Scapegoats. World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, 25(1), 125-155
Carlos, C., Vincenzo G. & Miguel, S. (2010). Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals? IMF Working, paper 10-120.
Cheng, C.H. & Lin, Y. (2002). Evaluating the best main battle tank using fuzzy decision theory with linguistic criteria evaluation. European Journal of Operational Research, 142(1), 174-186.
Claessens, S., Kose, M.A. & Terrones, M.E. (2008). Financial Stress and Economic Activity. BDDK Bankac, l , kve, Finansal Piyasalar Cilt:2, Say: 2, 2008.
Claessens, S. (2009). Lessons from the recent financial crisis for reforming national and international financial system. A Keynote paper Presented at the Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, Seoul, Korea.
Clayton, M.J. (1997). Delphi: A technique to harness expert opinion for critical decision- making tasks in education. Education Psychology, 17(4), 373-386.
Covel, M.W. (2005). Trend Following. Taipei: Person Education Taiwan Ltd.
Dalkey, N. (1969). An experimental study of group opinion. Futures, 3, 408-426.
Dalkey, N. & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi Method to the use of experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467.
Dam, K.W. (2010). The Sub prime Crisis and Financial Regulation: International and Comparative Perspectives. Chicago J. Inter. Law, 10(2), 50-57. 
Daniel, K. & Amos, T. (1979). Prospect Theory: Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292
Danielsson, J. (2008). Blame the models. VoxEU.org, 8 May. 
Davidson, P. (2008). Is the Current Financial Distress Caused by the Subprime Mortgage Crisis a Minsky Moment? Or is it the Result of Attempting to Securitize Illiquid Noncommercial Mortgage Loans? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 30(4), 671-676.
Delbecq, A.L., Van de Ven, A.H. & Gustafason, D.H. (1975). Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes. Illinois: Scott, Foreman and Company.
Demirguc, K.A. & Serven, L. (2009). Are all the sacred cows dead? Implications of the financial crisis for macro and financial policies. Policy Research Working Paper, 4807. The World Bank.
Dombrowski, K., Marcus, A. & Aiyer, A. (2010). Editorial: Is the dollar “Too Big to Fail”? Dialect Anthropol, 34, 159-165.
Duffield, C. (1988). The Delphi Technique. The Australian J. Advan. Nursing, l2(2), 41-45.
Favre, Laurent &Galeano, J.  (2002). Mean-Modified Value-at-Risk Optimization with Hedge Funds. Journal of Alternative Investments, 5, 21-25.  
Flannery, M.J. (2001). That faces of market discipline. Journal of Financial Services Research, 20(2/3), 107-119.
Gazioglu, S. (2008). Stock market returns in an emerging financial market: Turkish case study. Applied Economics, 40, 1363-72.
Goodman, C. (1987). The Delphi technique: A critique. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 12, 729-734.
Hakenes, H. & Schnabel, I. (2007). Bank size and risk-taking under Basel II. Journal of Bank and Finance, 35(6), 1436-1449.
Helmer, O.H. (1966). The Delphi Method for Systematizing Judgments about the Future. Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of California, L. A.
Helwege, J. (2009). Financial firm bankruptcy and systemic risk. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money. 20, 1-12.
Hendrik, H. & Isabel, S. (2011). Capital regulation, bank competition, and financial stability. Economics Letters. 113(3), 256-258.
Hildebrand, P.M. (2008). Is Basel II Enough? The Benefits of a Leverage Ratio. Speech by Mr. Philipp M Hildebrand, Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Financial Markets Group Lecture, London School of Economics, London, 15 December 2008.
Hildebrand, P.M. (2008).The sub-prime crisis: A central banker's perspective. Journal of Financial Stability, 4(4), 313-320.
Hsieh, L.F., Chin, J.B. & Wu, M.C. (2006). Performance evaluation for university electronic libraries in Taiwan. Electronic Library, 24(2), 212-224.
Hull, J., Predescu, M. & White, A. (2004). The Relationship between Credit Default Swap Spreads, Bond Yields, and Credit Rating Announcements. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28(11), 2789-2811. 
Iwan, J.A. (2010). Predicting a recovery date from the economic crisis of 2008. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 44(3), 122-129.
Keeney, S., Hasson, F. & McKenna, H.P. (2001). A critical review of the Delphi technique as a research methodology for nursing. International Journal of Nursing Studies, 38, 195-200.
Klein, L.R. & Coutino, A. (1996). The Mexican financial crisis of December 1994 and lessons to be learned. Open Economies Review, 7, 501-10.
Klug A., Landon-Lane S.J. & White, N.E. (2005). How could everyone have been so wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads. Explorations in Economic History, 42, 27-55.
Krugman, P. (2009). The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008. NY: W W Norton & Co Inc.
Mai, C.C. (1981). Optimal location and the theory of the firm under demand uncertainty. Regional Science and Urban Economics. 11(4), 549-557.
Moshirian, F. (2009). The current global financial crisis and the evolution of the international financial institutions. A Paper presented at the 22nd Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, Sydney, Australia.
Murry, J.W. &  Hammons, J.O. (1995). Delphi: A Versatile Methodology for Conducting Qualitative Research. The Review of Higher Education. 18(4), 423-436.
Norden, L. & Weber, M.  (2004). Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements.  Journal of Banking and Finance, 28(11), 2813-2843.
Pareto, V. (1964). Les crises economiques, Cours d'Economie Politique, Book II, Ch. IV,Vol II, Librairie Droz, Geneva, 1896-1897.
Praet P. & Nguyen, G. (2008). Overview of recent policy initiatives in response to the crisis.  Journal of Financial  Stability, 4(4), 368-375.
Reid, N. (1988). The Delphi technique: its contribution to the evaluation of professional practice. In R. Ellis (Ed.), Professional competence and quality assurance the caring professions (pp. 230-262). NY: Chapman & Hall.
Saaty, T.L. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process. NY: McGraw-Hill.
Springer, G.L. & Molina, J.L. (1995) The Mexican financial crisis: genesis, impact, and implication.  Journal of InterAmerican Studies and World Affairs, 37, 57-81.
Stijn, C, Ayhan K.M. & Marco, E.T. (2010). The global financial crisis: How similar? How different? How costly? Journal of Asian Economics, 21(3), 247-264.
Webler, T., Levine, D., Rakel, H. & Renn, O. (1991). A novel approach to reducing uncertainty: The group Delphi. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 39, 26-31.
Zhu, H. (2006). An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market. Journal of Financial Services Research, 29(3), 211 -235.




B. Institutional reports

Fish, L.S. & Busby, D. M. (1996). The Delphi method. In D. H. Prenkl & S. M. Moon (Eds.), Research methods in family therapy (pp. 469-482). NY: Guilford Press.
Morgan Stanley Research. US Portfolio Strategy (2009). The Crowd: Examining the Consensus Calls. February 1, 2009.
Morgan, J.P. (2008). Great financial crisis views of history, GL-2008-37.
Nomura International (2009). The Credit Crisis Explained. Quantitative Strategies-Fixed Income Research. Hong Kong.

C.  Network Source

Amiyaost, K.P. (2010). Originate-to-distribute model and the subprime mortgage crisis. Social Science Research Network. Retrived from: |http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1167786
Bernanke, B.S. (2010).Why Lehman Brothers is not non-inverted. James post, September 3 2010, available at: http://jamesz.pixnet.net/blog/post/27128226
Carpe, D. (2008). The Rise and Fall of the Subprime Mortgage Market.  Retrived from: http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/07/rise-and-fall-of-subprime-mortgage.html.
G-20 Calls for Action on Growth, Overhaul of Financial Rules (2007). Bloomberg company. Retrieved from: http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html? Intro=intro3 (February 27, 2009).
Gordon, R. (2008). Did Liberals Cause the Sub-Prime Crisis? The American Prospect, April 7, 2008. http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=did_liberals_cause_the_subprime_crisis
Linstone, H.A. & Turoff, M. (2002). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Retrieved from: http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html.
Vedantam, S. (2008). Subprime Mortgages and Race: A Bit of Good News May Be Illusory. Washington Post (06/30/08) P. A2. Retrieved from:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/29/AR2008062901784.html