影響出口品的國際競爭力和進口品在本國的競爭力的主要因素為匯率的波動。由台幣升值常伴隨經濟成長之趨緩，可見匯率的波動可能是台灣總體經濟波動的主要因素。我國多數產業以出口貿易為主，因此，匯率的波動可能間接影響勞工勞動狀態的穩定度。由於個別產業往來的主要貿易對手國不同，總體匯率指數無法精確反映各產業與主要貿易夥伴間的相對競爭力。為正確衡量個別產業於進、出口時所面臨的匯率衝擊，本文參照Goldberg(2004)年所建構的產業實質有效匯率計算方式，以各產業對我國前24大主要貿易對手國的貿易額為權數，計算1989-2003年間我國27個產業的貿易、出口以及進口產業實質有效匯率。
計算出的27個產業的貿易加權實質有效匯率的走勢十分不同。此外，本文的實證結果顯示，台幣升值會使男性和女性勞工移轉為失業與持續就業的相對風險增加。而且女性的勞動狀態比男性的勞動狀態更容易受到匯率的影響。
本文建議央行編製以個別產業的主要貿易夥伴的貿易比例為權數的產業實質有效匯率，以利於更精確地評估匯率政策對不同產業的影響，而央行於制定匯率政策時也必須考量到勞動市場的反應。
關鍵詞：產業實質有效匯率、工作狀態、multinomial logit模型

Real exchange rate fluctuations affect the competitiveness of domestic products in the world market. Since both the share of exports and the share of imports in Taiwanese GDP are higher than 60%, this paper aims to assess whether exchange rate fluctuations influence workers’ job stability. Since industries differ in their major trading partners, aggregate trade-weighted exchange rate cannot correctly reflect the currency valuation changes affecting specific industries. Using the shares of partners in the imports or exports of the industry as weights, this paper constructs three industry-specific exchange rates, i.e., the import-weighted, export-weighted, and trade-weighted exchange rates for 27 Taiwanese 2-digit industries over the period 1989-2003.
Our results dhow that the year-to-year changes in the industry-specific real exchange rate differ substantially across industries. Moreover, the results from multinomial logit model estimation show that real appreciation is associated with an increase in the probability of becoming unemployed relative to the probability of remain employed.

目錄
表目錄 ......................................................................................................................П
圖目錄 .....................................................................................................................Ш
第一章 緒論................................................................................................................1
第二章 文獻回顧.......................................................................................................5
第三章 資料來源與樣本分析.................................................................................10
3.1 資料來源.........................................................................................................10
3.2 樣本資料統計分析.........................................................................................11
3.3 各產業勞工在勞動狀態間移轉之概況.........................................................18
第四章 變數介紹與模型設定.................................................................................23
4.1 變數選擇與衡量.............................................................................................23
4.2 勞動狀態間移轉之MULTINOMIAL LOGIT實證模型.........................................28
第五章 實證結果分析.............................................................................................37
5.1 男性在勞動狀態間移轉之MULTINOMIAL LOGIT模型估計結果.....................37
5.2 女性在勞動狀態間移轉之MULTINOMIAL LOGIT模型估計結果.....................42
第六章 結論與未來研究方向.................................................................................47
附錄 .....................................................................................................................50
參考文獻.....................................................................................................................59
表目錄
表1 2003年產業主要出口貿易國....................................................................................................3
表2 2003年產業主要進口貿易國....................................................................................................3
表3 2003年產業匯率成長率............................................................................................................4
表4 男性各變數的樣本統計量.......................................................................................................13
表5 女性各變數的樣本統計量.......................................................................................................14
表6 各產業貿易產業實質有效匯率的樣本統計量........................................................................15
表7 各產業出口產業實質有效匯率的樣本統計量........................................................................16
表8 各產業進口產業實質有效匯率的樣本統計量........................................................................17
表9 全體樣本各產業勞動狀態轉換機率之平均值........................................................................20
表10 男性各產業勞動狀態轉換機率之平均值...............................................................................21
表11 女性各產業勞動狀態轉換機率之平均值................................................................................22
表12 變數定義與說明.......................................................................................................................32
表13 國貿局貨品歸類至各產業.......................................................................................................34
表14 1989年至1994年職業分類表................................................................................................35
表15 1995年至2003年職業分類表................................................................................................36
表16 男性勞動狀態轉換的決定因素－MULTINOMIAL LOGIT迴歸結果(相對風險)................41
表17 女性勞動狀態轉換的決定因素－MULTINOMIAL LOGIT迴歸結果(相對風險)................46
附表1 台灣與貿易對手國的雙邊實質匯率.....................................................................................50
附表2 國貿局貨品編號與貨品中文說明對照.................................................................................53
附表3 男性勞動狀態轉換的決定因素－MULTINOMIAL LOGIT迴歸結果（係數估計值）.....57
附表4 女性勞動狀態轉換的決定因素－MULTINOMIAL LOGIT迴歸結果（係數估計值）.....58
圖目錄
圖1 台幣兌美元匯率波動趨勢.................................................................................1
圖2 國內生產毛額成長率.........................................................................................2

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