淡江大學覺生紀念圖書館 (TKU Library)
進階搜尋


下載電子全文限經由淡江IP使用) 
系統識別號 U0002-2201201010091600
中文論文名稱 美國政府在一九五八年台海危機之決策過程
英文論文名稱 The U.S. Government Decision-Making Process of 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 美洲研究所博士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of The Americas
學年度 98
學期 1
出版年 99
研究生中文姓名 孫紹正
研究生英文姓名 Shao-Cheng Sun
學號 892220038
學位類別 博士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2010-01-11
論文頁數 224頁
口試委員 指導教授-陳一新
委員-陳明
委員-鄭端耀
委員-李明
委員-鄧中堅
中文關鍵字 理性行為者模式  組織行為模式  政府政治模式 
英文關鍵字 Rational Actor Model  Organizational Behavior Model  Governmental Politics Model 
學科別分類
中文摘要 1958年台海危機的著作雖眾,但是有學理依據,並以官方解密檔案驗證假設之純學術研究仍為少數。因此,本文研究目的乃從決策理論中抽理出假設,並藉案例進行驗證。鑒於美國對台灣安全扮演關鍵角色,是故,瞭解美方因應台海危機時之利益考量、組織立場及官僚之間的競奪關係實屬必要。至於探討焦點在於:(一) 艾森豪之危機處理目標、選項評估及政策抉擇。(二) 國務院與國防部因應危機之立場及爭辯。(三) 位居行動管道者如何運用議價技巧,及與總統互動關係,以爭取提案獲得接受。
首先,以理性行為者模式分析,艾森豪處理台海危機之考量,雖從爭取國家利益為出發點,意在選出符合利益高、代價低之選項。然由「口頭承諾防禦外島」的案例得知,艾森豪因考量發表此承諾代價過高,而不願做出表述。但後來《新港聲明》表示,美軍是否介入金門防衛將由總統定調,且在核心幕僚簇擁下,總統最終改變心意。顯示艾森豪評估選項並非一成不變,而是受到當時國內外情勢相對調整。
其次,從組織行為模式切入,以國務院與國防部在處理台海危機之提案較勁觀之,可看出國務院較獲總統器重,因此,國防部必須調整立場。例如:國防部原先所提近距離護航及使用有限核武建議,均未獲艾森豪接受,此乃因身為政策之最終定案者,在權衡選項所付風險過高而予以否決。國防部亦調整原先計畫,以符合總統心意。顯示組織期望提案獲得接受,將會配合主政者喜好,期使方案在修正後獲得採納。
再者,就政府政治模式層面探討,國務卿杜勒斯因擅長營造與總統關係及縮限決策範圍,使他者難以插手。國防部長麥艾樂與國家安全事務特別助理葛雷因新官上任,幾無提出別出心裁建議。中情局局長艾倫•杜勒斯則將該局定位為僅提供情報而不制定政策,故在決策圈之影響力有限。參謀首長聯席會議主席崔寧雖在危機初期態度強硬,但得知總統希以較低代價回歸現狀,態度逐漸向總統靠攏。顯示杜勒斯精於與總統保持頻繁互動關係,故在決策過程中掌握優勢;而其餘決策者因部分對台海事務生疏,或立場違背總統偏好,因此退居二線。
最後,本文研究結果與發現為:(一) 艾森豪偏好代價較低之選項;(二) 組織之專責單位多能在議題主導位居上風;(三) 位居「行動管道」參與者若能結合總統意志,在決策過程中將掌握優勢;(四) 美軍防衛外島將依總統判斷台海情勢而定;(五) 艾森豪不會因外島問題而動用核武;(六) 艾森豪透過核心幕僚完成其個人意志;(七) 美中台處理外島危機之原則均在尋求國家利益。
綜合上述觀點,艾森豪政府處理台海危機之考量,主要從選項代價、組織立場及參與者競奪等面向切入。多數學者雖認為美國已竭盡心力協防外島,但研究發現則有別於此。事實上,艾森豪自始至終皆無意願防衛外島,故當軍方提出強硬立場均遭駁回,並委由核心幕僚消弭危機。因此本文主旨為:艾森豪總統利用細緻政治手腕,引導國務院及國防部提出總統偏好的政策選項,同時藉國務卿杜勒斯遂行其個人意志,以避免台海危機持續升溫,並確保美國國家利益。
英文摘要 Although there is a large number of publications of 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis, only very few theoretical studies adopted theory-confirming case studies in order to verify hypotheses about official declassified archives. This dissertation attempts to do so. Taking into consideration that the US security commitments to Taiwan played a crucial role in the survival of Taiwan, the aim of this study is to explore President Eisenhower’s interests and the organizational stances of his administration, as well as the participants’ competition regarding the decision-making processes during the aforementioned crisis, being the main objective the finding of the patterns and essence of the actual concerns of US leaders in such processes. This dissertation attempts to verify three main hypotheses derived from decision-making theory, and focuses on the decision-making process of the Eisenhower administration. In order to do so, this study tries to answer the following questions: (1) what were the objectives, alternatives, and choices that Eisenhower –in his leading role as US head of state– had during the crisis? (2) what were the stances and debates between the US State Department and the Department of Defense in dealing with the crisis? (3) How did participants of the action channels utilize their bargaining skills and interacted with Eisenhower to compete their proposals?
First, adopting the point of view of the Rational Actor Model, this study tried to demonstrate that Eisenhower –based on the US national interests– chose those proposals that, made by the leading bureaucrats of his administration, represented with higher interests and lower costs. In the beginning, Eisenhower considered that publicly stating the US intention of defending Quemoy was too costly and was, therefore, unwilling to make the Newport Statement. But the US military intervention was to eventually be decided by President Eisenhower alone, which he finally agreed to do. It shows that Eisenhower’s evaluation of proposals was flexible and influenced by both the domestic and international environment.
Second, from the Organizational Behavior Model, Eisenhower apparently preferred the State Department’s proposals. Thus, the Department of Defense started to adjust its previously strong-arm methods. For instance, the Department of Defense proposed “close-in escort for Taiwan’s vessels” and “the use of nuclear weapons” proposals, which were both rejected by Eisenhower. He assessed that these proposals were too risky and costly. Soon after that, the Department of Defense altered its plans to meet Eisenhower’s expectations. It indicates that an organization may alter its proposals based on the President’s acceptance in order to meet his mindset.
Third, from the Government Politics Model, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles was master-minded in nurturing relations with the President. He also narrowed the number of participants involved in the decision-making processes. Thus, others were unable to affect the outcome. Secretary of Defense Neil H. McElroy and Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Gordon Gray were newly appointed. It was difficult for them to offer creative and feasible suggestions. The Central Intelligence Agency Director Allen Dulles emphasized that his organization could only provide intelligence, but not get involved in policy making. Consequently, his influence in the action channel was limited. Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff Nathan F. Twining’s attitude toward the crisis was tough in the beginning. After Twining learned that Eisenhower had determined to use the least cost in maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, his attitude started to lean toward the President’s side. It showed that John Dulles was good at highlighting his importance within the action channel. He then gained an upper hand in the decision-making process. In comparing with other participants, some of them were not familiar with the cross-strait issues and still others’ opinions diverged from the President’s stance. Therefore, their role in the decision-making process became less effective.
Finally, the findings of the research are as follows: (1) Eisenhower preferred low-cost proposals; (2) If the crisis fell into the responsibility of a particular organization, proposals from this organization would be more favourably considered by the President; (3) If participants’ proposals wanted to be accepted, they needed to include the President’s ideas; (4) The decision of defending the offshore islands would be made by the President; (5) Eisenhower was not going to use nuclear weapons to defend Quemoy;(6) Eisenhower achieved his objectives through the leading bureaucrats; and (7) US/China/Taiwan were seeking their national interests in dealing with the offshore islands crisis.
To conclude, this study proves that the Eisenhower administration handled the crisis mainly through its assessment of the cost of proposals, the capability of organizations, and competitions among participants. Despite most scholars believe that Eisenhower had willingly made efforts to defend Quemoy, this study has found that, actually, it was just the opposite case. In fact, Eisenhower had no desire to defend Quemoy. When the Department of Defense suggested military counter-measures in the defense of offshore islands, such measures were turned down by Eisenhower. He also assigned his leading bureaucrats to diminish the crisis at the US expense, but Eisenhower remained the key person behind the scene. Thus, the main theme of this dissertation is that as Eisenhower used his influence on agencies such as the State Department and the Department of Defense on the one hand and the Secretary of State Dulles on the other to maximize the national interests of the United States, he successfully prevented further escalation of the Quemoy crisis.
論文目次 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究目的與預期貢獻 4
第二節 研究方法、範圍與限制 6
第三節 文獻探討 14
第四節 章節安排 31
第五節 小結 33
第二章 理論架構與命題假設 35
第一節 理性行為模式 36
第二節 組織行為模式 42
第三節 政府政治模式 48
第四節 小結 58
第三章 理性行為模式下艾森豪在台海危機之決策過程 59
第一節 中共發動金門砲擊之目的與策略 61
第二節 艾森豪因應危機之目標設定 74
第三節 艾森豪之選項評估與理性抉擇 77
第四節 小結 91
第四章 組織行為模式下國務院與國防部之決策爭辯 94
第一節 國務院之立場與政策建議 96
第二節 國防部之立場與執行 115
第三節 國務院與國防部在核武使用上之爭議 130
第四節 小結 137
第五章 政府政治模式下艾森豪國安團隊之議價與妥協 139
第一節 杜勒斯縱橫決策之關鍵 140
第二節 主要決策參與者於議價過程中的妥協 155
第三節 艾森豪之幕後操控 166
第四節 小結 176
第六章 結論 179
參考文獻 中文部分
官方檔案
中共中央文獻研究室,建國以來重要文獻選編,第一冊 (北京:中央文獻出版社,1992年)。
中央文獻研究室,建國以來毛澤東文稿,第七冊 (北京:中央文獻出版社,1992年)。
中共中央文獻編輯委員會,毛澤東選集,第二卷 (湖北:人民出版社,1991年)。
中共中央文獻編輯委員會,毛澤東選集,第四卷 (湖北:人民出版社,1991)。
毛澤東,毛澤東外交文選 (北京:中共中央文獻出版社、世界知識出版社,1994年)。
毛澤東,毛澤東軍事文選 (北京:軍事科學出版社,1993年)。
周恩來,周恩來外交文選 (北京:中央文獻出版社,1990年)。
周恩來,周恩來軍事文選 (北京:人民出版社,1997年)。
當代中國叢書編輯委員會,當代中國軍隊的軍事工作 (北京:中國社會科學出版社,1989年)。
逢先知,毛澤東傳 (1949-1976) 上冊 (北京:中央文獻出版社,2003年)。
唐淑芬主編,八二三戰役文獻專輯 (台北:台灣省文獻委員會,1994年)。
秦孝儀主編,革命文獻第77輯 (台北:中央文物供應社,1978年)。
韓懷智、譚旌樵主編,當代中國軍隊的軍事工作(北京:中國社會科學出版社,1989年)。
國史館,中華民國褒揚令集續編七 (台北:國史館,2002)
國史館,蔣中正總統檔案 (台北:國史館)。
國防部史政編譯局,八二三台海戰役 (台北:國防部史政編譯局,1998年)。
國防部史政編譯局,烽火歲月:823戰役參戰官兵口述歷史 (台北:史政編譯局,2009年)。
國防部史政編譯局,八二三金門砲戰砲擊經過檔案 (台北:國防部史政編譯局)。
國防部史政編譯局,蔣中正總統在作戰計畫的指示檔案 (台北:國防部史政編譯局)。
國防部史政編譯局,金門砲戰的檢討檔案 (台北:國防部史政編譯局)。

專書
王炳南,中美會談九年回顧 (北京:世界知識出版社,1985年)。
何思因主編,美國 (台北:國立政治大學國際關係研究中心,1992年)。
李元平,台海大戰 (下篇):台灣觀點 (台北:風雲時代,1992年)。
李元平,俞大維傳 (台北:台灣日報,1992年)。
沈衛平,8.23砲擊金門 (北京:華藝出版社,2006年)。
林正義,一九五八年台海危機期間美國對華政策 (台北:台灣商務印書館,1985年)。
陳一新,危機潛伏:布希政府第一任期從平衡到失衡的兩岸政策 (台北:博揚文化,2007年)。
陳一新,斷交後的中美關係 (台北:五南出版社,1995年)。
吳冷西,憶毛主席-我親身經歷的若干重大歷史事件片斷 (北京:新華出版社,1995年)。
徐焰,台海大戰 (上編):中共觀點 (台北:風雲時代,1992年)。
高文閣,台灣與大陸風雲四十年 (吉林:吉林文史出版社1991年)。
資中筠、何迪編,美國對台政策機密檔案1949-1989 (台北:海峽評論,1992年)。
陶文釗,中美關係史1949-1972 (上海:上海人民出版社,2004年)。
鄭宏泰、黃紹倫,香港將軍何世禮 (香港:香港書店,2008)。
葉飛,葉飛回憶錄 (北京:解放軍出版社,1986年)。
謝永湉譯,一九五八年台灣海峽危機 (台北:國防部史政編譯局,1985年)。
顧維鈞,顧維鈞回憶錄:第七分冊 (北京:中華書局,1988年)。

期刊論文
李立,「第二次台海危機親歷記─原福州軍區副司令員石一宸將軍回憶金門砲擊事件」。兩岸關係 (北京:海峽兩岸關係協會,第8期,2002年),1-4。
李春玲,「華沙會談與中美對第二次台灣海峽危機的處理」。史學月刊(河南:河南大學,第7期,2005年),99-109。
沈志華,「1958年砲擊金門前中國是否告知蘇聯」。中共黨史研究 (北京:中共中央黨史研究室,第3期,2004年),35-40。
栗國成,「一九五八年『台海危機』期間台、美、中之反應與互動」。國家發展研究 (台北:台灣大學國家發展研究所,第4卷,第1期,2004年),151-206。
朱鑫、王甬,「三次『台海危機』始末」。黨史文苑 (南昌:江西省委黨史研究室,第3期,1997年),44-47。
張淑雅,「台海危機前美國對外島的政策 (1953-1954)」。中央研究院近代史研究所集刊 (台北:中央研究院近代史研究所,第23期下冊,1994年),293-330。
江渝,「第二次台海危機前因後果析」。四川教育學院學報 (成都:四川教育學院,第13卷,第2期,1997年2月),44-49。
周元,「1958年中國共產黨砲擊金門的決策藝術」。福建黨史月刊 (福州市:福建黨史月刊編輯部,S1期,2004年),95-98。
廖心文,「1958年毛澤東決策炮擊金門的歷史考察」。黨的文獻 (北京:黨的文獻出版社,第1期,1994年),31-36。
廖心文,「1958年砲擊金門決策內幕」。瞭望 (北京:中央文獻研究室,第5期,1994年),34-37。
楊成武,「砲擊金門始末二」。人民論壇月刊 (北京:人民日報社,第22期,1994年1月號),54-57。

學位論文
賴亞欣,美國發表《中國白皮書》(台北:淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文,2009年)。
簡嘉宏,美中 (共) 關係正常化之決策過程 (1969-1979) (台北:淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文,2001年)。
陳仲志,美國國家安全會議於對華外交決策過程之角色:以艾森豪、甘迺迪及尼克森政府為例 (台北:淡江大學美國研究所博士論文,2008年)。

網路資源
中華人民共和國外交部,「中美大使級會談」,2009年10月25日,http://big5.fmprc.gov.cn/gate/big5/www.mfa.gov.cn/chn/pds/ziliao/wjs/2159/t9006.htm.
廖文心,「1958年毛澤東決策砲擊金門」,中國網,2009年8月22日, http://www.china.com.cn/aboutchina/txt/2009-08/22/content_18381522_2.htm

英文部分
官方檔案
Bernard C. Nalty, The Air Force Role in Five Crises 1958-1965: Lebanon, Taiwan, Chongo, Cuba, Dominican Republic (USAF Historical Division Liaison Office, June 1968).
Jacob Van Straaveren, Air Operation in the Taiwan Crisis of 1958 (USAF Historical Division Liaison Office, 1962).
Morton H. Halperin, The 1958 Taiwan Straits Crisis: A Documented History (RAND, 1975).
Paul E. Zinner ed., Documents on American Foreign Relations: 1958 (New York: Harper and Brothers for the Council on Foreign Relations, 1959).
Paul Kesaris, ed., Documents of the National Security Councul. Fifth Supplement (Frederick, MD: university Publications of America, 1989).
United States Government Printing Office, Foreign Relations of United States, 1952-1954, Vol. 14. (Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1985).
United States Government Printing Office, Foreign Relations of United States, 1955-1957, Vol. 2. (Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1986).
United States Government Printing Office, Foreign Relations of United States, 1955-1957, Vol. 3. (Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1986).
United States Government Printing Office, Foreign Relations of United States, 1958-1960, Vol. 19. (Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1996).
United States Government Printing Office, Foreign Relations of United States, 1961-1963, Vol. 22. (Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1996).
United States Government Printing Office, Foreign Relations of United States, 1969-1976, Vol. 17. (Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office, 2006).
United States Department of State, Confidential US State Department Central Files, China and People Republic of China, Internal Affairs, 1955-1959.
United States Department of State, Confidential US State Department Central Files, The Far East, 1955-1959.

專書
Adams, Sherman. First-Hand Report (New York: Harper & Brother, 1962).
Allison, Graham T. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little, Brown, 1971).
Allison, Graham T. and Zellikow, Philip. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: Addison Wesley Longman, 1999).
Burles, Mark and Shulsky, Abram N. Patterns in China’s Use of Force: Evidence from History and Doctrinal Writings(Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2000).
Burr, William. The Kissinger Transcripts: The Top Secret Talks with Beijing and Moscow (New York: The New Press, 1999).
Busha, Charles and Harter, Stephen P. Research Methods in Librarianship: Techniques and Interpretations (New York: Academic Press, 1980).
Cline, Ray S. The CIA Reality vs. Myth (Washington, D. C.: Acropplis Book ltd., 1982).
Copper, John F. A Quiet Revolution: Political Development in the Republic of China (Washington, DC:The Ethics & Public Policy Center, 1988).
Cheng, P. P. A Study of John Foster Dulles’ Diplomatic Strategy in the Far East, PhD dissertation (Carbondale: Southern Illinois University, 1964).
Crabb, Cecil V. Jr. and Mulcahy, Kevin V. Presidents and Foreign Policy Making: From FDR to Regan (Baton Rouge, Louisiana State University Press, 1966).
Dimock, Marshall. A Philosophy of Administration (New York: Harper & Row, 1958).
Dougherty, James E. and Pfaltzgraff, Robert L. Jr. ed., Contending Theories of International Relations: A Comprehensive Survey (New York: Harper Collins Publishers, 1990).
Dulles, Allen. The Craft of Intelligence (New York: Harper & Row Publishers, 1963).
Dulles, Foster Rhea. American Policy toward Communist China, 1949-1969 (New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1972).
Eisenhower, Dwight D. The White House Years: Mandate for Change, 1953-1956 (Garden City, New York: Doubleday and Co., Inc., 1963).
Eisenhower, Dwight D. Waging Peace 1956-1961 (Garden City, New York: Doubleday, 1965).
Esterline, John H. and Robert Black, B. Inside Foreign Policy (Palo Alto Ca., Mayfield Publishing Company, 1975).
George, Alexander. Presidential Decision-making in Foreign Policy: the Effective Use of Information and Advice (Boulder, Colo: Westview Press, 1980).
Greenstein, Fred I. The Hidden-Hand Presidency: Eisenhower as Leader (New York: Basic Books, 1982).
Halperin, Morton H. Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy (Washington D. C.: The Brookings Institution, 1974).
Halperin, Morton H. The 1958 Taiwan Straits Crisis: A Documented History (RAND, 1975).
Hart, Paul., Stern, Eric., and Sundelius, Bengt, eds. Beyond Groupthink: Political Group Dynamics and Foreign Policy-making (Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 1997).
Hershberg, James G. ed. The Cold War in Asia (Wanshington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars: 1995/1996).
Hickey, Dennis Van Vranken. United States-Taiwan Sevurity ties: From Cold War to Beyond Containment (London: National Information Standard Organization, 1994).
Hilsman, Roger. The Politics of Policy Making in Defense and Foreign Affairs (New York: Columbia University, 1971).
Hilsman, Roger. The Politics of Policy Making in Defense and Foreign Affairs: Conceptual models and Bureaucratic Politics (New Jersey: Prentice Hall, Inc., 1992).
Hilsman, Roger. To Move a Nation: the Poltics of Foreign Policy in the Administration of John F. Kennedy (New York: Doubledday, 1967).
Hughes, John E. The Ordeal of Power (New York: Macmi llan Pub Co, 1963).
Huntington, Samuel P. Solider and State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1957).
Immerman, Richard H. ed. John Foster Dulles and the Diplomacy of Cold War (New York: Princeton University Press, 1990).
Kalicki, Jan H. The Pattern of Sino-American Crises: Political-Military Interaction in the 1950s (Cambridge University Press, 1957).
Kissinger, Henry. The White House Years (Boston: Little Brown, 1979).
Kraft, Victoria Marie. The US Constitution and Foreign Policy: Terminating the Taiwan Treaty (New York: Green Press, 1991).
Marks, Frederick W. Power and Peace-The Diplomacy of John Foster Dulles (Westport: Praeger Publishers, 1995).
Neustadt, Richard E. Presidential Power: The Politics of Leadership (New York: Wiley, 1960).
Neustadt, Richard. Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents: The Politics of Leadership from Roosevelt to Regan, fifth edition (New York: Fress Press, 1990).
Nixon, Richard N. RN: The Memoirs of Richard Nixon (New York: Warner Books, 1979).
Pfaltzgraff, Robert L. Jr. and Davis, Jacquelyn K. ed. National Security Decisions: The Participants Speaks (Massachusetts: Lexington, 1990).
Prados, John. Keepers of the Keys: A History of the National Security Council from Truman to Bush (New York: William Morrow and Company, Inc., 1991).
Pruessen, Ronald W. John Foster Dulles: The Road to Power (New York: Macmillan Publishing Co., Inc., 1980).
Rosati, Jerel A. The Potics of United States Foreign Policy (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1992).
Ross, Robert S. and Jiang, Changbin eds. Re-examining the Cold War: U.S.-China Diplomacy, 1954-1973 (Harvard University Asia Center, 2001).
Smith, Gaddis. Dean Acheson (New York: Publishers, Inc., 1972).
Simon, Herbert A. Administration Behavior (New York: Macmillan, 1958).
Simon, Herbert A. Models of Man: Social and Rational—Mathematical Essay on Rational Human Behavior in a Social Setting (New York: Wiley, 1957).
Snyder, Glenn H. and Diesing, Paul. Conflict among Nations (Princeton, N. J: Princeton University Press, 1977).
Snyder, Richard C., Bruck, H. W., and Sapin, Burton eds. Foreign Policy Decision-Making (New York: The Free Press, 1963).
Swaine, Michael D. and Tellis, Ashley J. Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000).
Waltz, Kenneth N. Theory of International Politics (Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979).
Weber, Max. Economy and Society: An Outcome of Interpretative Analogy (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1963).
Weiner, Tim. Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA (New York: Doubleday, 2007).
Yin, Robert K. Case Study Research: Design and Methods, Third Edition (California: Sage Publications, 2002).

期刊論文
Allison, Graham T. “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” American Political Science Review, Vol. 63, No. 3 (September, 1969), 689-718.
Brands, H. W. Jr. “Testing Massive Retaliation: Credibility and Crisis Management in the Taiwan Strait,” International Security, Vol. 12 (Spring 1988), 124-125.
Chan, Steve. “Chinese Conflict Calculus and Behavior: Assessment from a Perspective of Conflict Management,” World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 3 (April, 1978), 391-410.
Crow, Jeffrey J. “The Paradox and the Dilemma: Gordon Gray and the J. Robert Oppenheimer Security Clearance Hearing,” North Carolina Historical Review (April 2008), 163-190.
George, Alexander L. “The Case for Multiple Advocacy in Making Foreign Policy,” The American Political Science Review, Vol. 66, No. 3 (September, 1972), 751-785.
Gordon, Leonard H. D. “United States Opposition to Use of Force in the Taiwan Strait, 1954-1962,” The Journal of American History, Vol. 72, No. 3. (December, 1985), 637-660.
Greenstein, Fred I. and Immerman, Richard H. “Effective National Security Advising: Recovering the Eisenhower Legacy,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 115, No. 3. (Autumn, 2000), 335-345.
Gurtov, Melvin “The Taiwan Strait Crisis Revisited: Politics and Foreign Policy in Chinese Motives,” Modern China, Vol. 2, No. 1 (January, 1976), 49-103.
Hermann, Margaret G. “Who Leads Matters: The Effects of Powerful Individuals,” International Studies Review, Vol. 3, No. 2, (Summer, 2001), 83-131.
Holsti, Ole. “The Operational Code Approach to the Study of Political Leaders: John Foster Dulles’ Philosophical and Instrumental Beliefs,” Canadian Journal of Political Science, Vol. 3, No. 1. (March, 1970), 123-157.
Immerman, Richard H. “Eisenhower and Dulles: Who Made the Decisions?” Political Psychology, Vol. 1, No. 2 (Autumn, 1979), 21-38.
Kester, John G. “The Future of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,” AEI Foreign Policy and Defense Review (1980), 3-5.
Lijphart, Arend “Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method,” American Political Science Review, Vol. 65, No. 3 (September, 1971), 682-693.
McClelland, Charles A. “Action Structures and Communication in Two International Crises: Quemoy and Berlin,” Background, Vol. 7, No. 4 (February, 1964), 201-215.
McClelland, Charles A. “Decisional Opportunity and Political Controversy: The Quemoy Case,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 6, No. 3 (September, 1962), 201-213.
McMahon, Robert J. “Eisenhower and Third World Nationalism: A Critique of the Revisionists,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 101, No. 3. (1986), 453-473.
Nixon, Richard “Asia After Vietnam,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 46, No. 1 (October, 1967), 111-125.
Ostrom, Charles W. Jr., and Job, Brian L. “The President and the Political Use of Force,” The American Political Science Review, Vol. 80, No. 2. (June, 1986), 541-566.
Perlmutter, Amos “The Presidential Political Center and Foreign Policy: A Critique of the Revisionist and Bureaucratic-Political Orientations,” World Politics, Vol. 27, No. 1. (October, 1974), 87-106.
Peterson, Paul E. “The President’s Dominance in Foreign Policy Making,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 109, No. 2. (Summer, 1994), 215-234.
Rushkoff, Bennett C. “Eisenhower, Dulles and the Quemoy-Matsu Crisis, 1954-1955,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 96, No. 3 (Autumn, 1981), 465-480.
Sigal, Leon V. “The Rational Policy Model and the Formosa Straits Crises,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 14, No. 2 (June, 1970), 121-156.
Simon, Herbert A. Administration Behavior (New York: Macmillan, 1958); “A Behavior Model of Rational Choice,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. LXIX (February, 1955), 99-118.
Singer, J. Davis “Inter-Nation Influence: A Formal Model,” American Political Science Review, Vol. LXII (June, 1963), 420-430.
Whiting, Allen S. “New Light on Mao: Quemoy 1958: Mao’s Miscalculations,” The China Quarterly, No. 62 (June, 1975), 263-270.
Whiting, Allen S. “China’s Use of Force, 1950-96, and Taiwan,” International Security, Vol. 26, No. 2 (Autumn, 2001), 103-131.
Wilson, Charles and Radford, Arthur, “the New Look,” Air Force Magazine, Vol. 65, No. 8 (August, 2003), 80-82.

網路資源
Beam, Jacob D. Papers, 1920-1980: Finding Aid, Princeton University Library Mudd Manuscript, Library http://diglib.princeton.edu/ead/getEad?eadid=MC186&kw=.
Central Intelligence Agency, A Look Back: Allen Dulles Becomes DCI, https://www.cia.gov/news-information/featured-story-archive/allen-dulles-becomes-dci.html.
Eisenhower, Dwight. “State of the Union, 1958,” http://www.vlib.us/amdocs/texts/dde1958.htm.
Hataley, Todd. “Bureaucratic Politics and the Department of National Defense” (Conference of Defense Associations Institute: Third Annual Graduate Student Symposium, Queen’s University, November 2000) http://www.cda-cdai.ca/symposia/2000/hataley.htm.
Secretaries of Defense Charles E. Wilson, http://www.defenselink.mil/specials/secdef_histories.
Secretaries of Defense Neil H. McElroy, http://www.defenselink.mil/specials/secdef_histories.
Smith, Gerard C. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerard_C._Smith. Director of Policy Planning, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Director_of_Policy_Planning.
The Administration: O.K., S.A. Time, Jan. 9, 1956, http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,866694-1,00.html
The official website of the US Air Force, General Nathan F. Twining http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?storyID=123008435
論文使用權限
  • 同意紙本無償授權給館內讀者為學術之目的重製使用,於2010-01-27公開。
  • 同意授權瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2010-01-27起公開。


  • 若您有任何疑問,請與我們聯絡!
    圖書館: 請來電 (02)2621-5656 轉 2281 或 來信