近年中國在經濟和軍事上逐漸成為能與美國抗衡的區域強權，其國際影響力也與日俱增; 為淡化西方國家對於「中國威脅論」的疑慮，中國從2004年底開始積極推動在世界各地建立孔子學院，盼藉此宣揚中國文化，扭轉中國共產黨迫害人權、壓抑言論自由等國際負面形象。在中國前國家主席胡錦濤提倡「國家軟實力」的口號下，孔子學院創辦11年來，中國教育部下屬的國家漢語國際推廣領導小組辦公室 (簡稱"漢辦") 已在全球126國合作開辦475所孔子學院，其中美國是設立孔子學院最多的國家，共60多所。然而孔子學院近一、二年開始遭到美國各界的質疑。2014年6月美國教授協會發表聲明，指孔子學院破壞學術自由，呼籲近100所大學取消或重新審核與孔子學院之間的關係;美國眾議院外交事務委員也於2014年12月4日舉行聽證會，認為中國對美國大學的影響威脅到了學術自由。中國則否認孔子學院是中國政府意識形態輸出的工具。

因此，本論文期望透過對軟實力、 公共外交、國際形象等概念及理論的說明，文獻分析法、觀察指標法及實例的研究途徑來探討中國對外行為的政策變化及其如何運用孔子學院爲強化軟實力的一環來改善其國家形象。最後，經由因果層次分析從表面到深層來檢視孔子學院在美國校園引起的討論，美國學界對孔子學院的反應及其效應，剖析中國積極推廣孔子和儒家思想作為中國文化的象徵的策略內涵及中美本質性的差異，進而使整個論文能更具有完整性與客觀性。

Riding on a wave of bolstering economy and military strength, China over the past decade has been pushing its idea of rejuvenation on global stage, and that with the establishment of Confucius Institutes, these cultural organizations provided an opportunity for China to promote the country and project its image abroad as a benevolent rising power. Of late however, Confucius Institute program has come under fire from members of the host country's academia circle, alleging it of heavy-handedly meddling in the host university's administrative arrangement. The concerns are particularly glaring on American campuses.

Studies of the Confucius Institute have been overwhelmingly focused on its general description and its global expansion in the context of China's soft power pursuit, with litter academic analysis elaborate on the phenomenon of the Confucius Institute on U.S. campuses. This paper therefore aims to improve the current extended literature by providing a theoretical and empirical analysis of the Confucius Institute programs in the Northern American campuses. By applying theories and concepts from the fields of international relations, diplomacy, education and branding marketing, as well as examining official documents, journals, news reports and public opinion polls, this inter-disciplinary study seeks to examine the rationales, diplomatic objectives, and national interests behind China's establishment of Confucius Institutes in the U.S. and their subsequent impacts. The paper also analyzes these issues through Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), a common method in Futures Studies, that seeks to dig into the essence and core element of the issues at hand and generate profound interpretation on various dimensions.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1: Introduction 1
1.1  Research motivation 3
1.2  Research methods 4
Chapter 2: Literature review 6
2.1  China's rise to hegemony 6
2.2  China's shift to soft power 8
2.3  Making of China's Confucius Institute strategy 13
Chapter 3: Effects and responses 17
3.1  Role and operation of the Confucius Institute 17
3.2  Skeptics: Concern of possible "Trojan Horse" effects 18
3.3  Proponents: View it as benevolent public diplomacy 24
Chapter 4: Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) 27
4.1  The first level: Litany 29
4.2  The second level: Systemic causes 32
4.3  The third level: Discourse/worldview 40
4.4  The fourth level: Myth/metaphor analysis 56
Chapter 5: Conclusion 63
References 66

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