本文旨在透過地緣政治與新制度經濟學的途徑研究，探討1999至2006年普欽總統任內，俄國如何看待及處理裏海沿岸四國伊朗、哈薩克、土庫曼、亞塞拜然及區域外大國的問題，在與各國爭奪裏海能源的大戰中，如何延續後霸權的角色。各國搶奪裏海資源是地緣政治的表現，為了避免位置被其他國家所取代，讓國家失去競爭力的危機，普欽上任後積極展開與各國一起開發裏海能源的動作。
各國聯合開發裏海資源的行為以競爭與合作的型態呈現。新制度經濟學主張國際間有許多的經濟規範與組織，就是新秩序的維持與新制度的出現，在制度裡，各國以結盟的方式，建立起溝通平台，可減少資訊的不對稱性；各國元首定期開會交換意見，避免欺騙行為；在組織架構下，透過談判、協商的機制解決所有的爭端；簽訂協議來約束各國的開發行為，有助於降低交易成本，並在框架內實現國家的利益。 
俄國所擁有的裏海資源少，俄屬裏海地區所生產的石油及天然氣為全俄的1%，貢獻不多，但是卻擁有裏海區域大部分的出口管道，所以俄國裏海的政策重點在於靈活運用管道策略及利用能源公司來替國家賺錢。
經濟上，與西方國家合作除了可以與加強與世界經濟整合，還可以學到西方國家的技術。管道的過境費可以為俄國帶來穩定的稅收，不斷的開發新管道可以促進沿線地區的發展，達到擴大內需的效果。政治上，參與國際組織，與其他國家的能源合作，在國際舞台上爭取發言權，擴大影響力，對內加強特殊產業的控制，來保證國家的安全與穩定。

The subject of this thesis is to analyze the interrelation and interaction of geopolitics through new institutional economics from 1999-2006 with regards to Russia's exposure to the four states neighboring the Caspian Sea, namely Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan as well as to other great powers acting in this region. 
The striving for natural resources in the Caspian Sea is evident if observing each of the neighboring countries’ behavior. Each of them tries to get the biggest piece of the Caspian energy cake, and concurrently, in terms of influence, avoid to be replaced by the other neighboring countries. It is a struggle that has also caused loose of competitive power. When Putin assumed office, Moscow positively engaged with his Caspian neighbors for a cooperative management of the Caspian Sea energy.
The joint exploitation of the Caspian natural resources reveals the condition that competition and cooperation happens when states peruse each own interests. New institutional economics emphasizes that trade will create new rules and institutions to maintain the new order. Institutions could reduce the informational asymmetry by setting up communication platforms for each participant; avoids fraud or disadvantageous treatment by organizing regular meetings to exchange views and ideas. Conflicts are treated under organizational framework via negotiations, problem-solving consultations, and the resource-exploitation behavior will under the surveillance of joint agreements which signed by all participated states. This cooperative way helps them to reduce costs of trade transactions and to realize each country’s interest fairly within this framework.  
Russia's development of its Caspian Sea natural resources is humble, as oil and natural gas production in that region merely stake 1% of the country’s total energy production. The contribution of the Caspian Sea energy production is very low. However, Moscow possesses the regions biggest export pipeline, and hence its policy’s focal point lies in the flexible application of a pipeline strategy and to use foreign companies to invest and earn money in this region. 
From the economic point of view, the cooperation with western countries not only strengthens Russia’s integration into the world economy but also enables the biggest country in the world to learn from western technologies. Additionally, the pipeline transit charges are a reliable and stable tax income. During continuous exploitation processes, new pipelines can promote the regional development of the Caspian Sea, achieving an expansion of the domestic demand. 
On the political level, participation in international organizations and the energy cooperation with other countries increases Russia’s influence on the international stage, strengthens its control of particular domestic industries and guarantees the security and stability of the country.

目錄
第一章 緒論………………………...…………………………………...........1
第一節 研究動機與目的……………………………………………………………...........1
第二節 研究方法……………………………………………………………………...........3
第三節 研究範圍與限制…………………………………………………………….........12
第四節 論文架構與章節安排……………………………………………………….........13
第二章 裏海地區能源的利益與衝突………………………..….…….........14
第一節 裏海地緣政治環境………………………………………………………….........14
第二節 裏海能源的供給與需求…………………………………………………….........22
第三節 裏海周邊各國與美國的石油角逐………………………………………….........37
第四節 裏海國際法律爭端情形…………………………………………………….........50
第五節 小結………………………………………………………………………….........57
第三章 裏海地區能源競合對俄羅斯及能源進口大國的衝擊....…............61
第一節 能源管道的建立…………………………………………………………….........61
第二節 國際間的競爭與合作：周邊國家的競爭與合作，美國的角色與影響…………………………………………………………………....………………...........72
第三節 俄國與各國的競爭情況........................…………………………………….........82
第四節 小結………………………………………………………………………...........109
第四章 俄羅斯在裏海地區的能源經營策略……………………………..112
第一節 俄國裏海政策……………………………………………………………...........112
第二節 俄羅斯能源公司在裏海的投資…………………………………………...........119
第三節 裏海的能源對俄羅斯的經濟貢獻或影響………………………………...........132
第四節 小結.......................................................................................................................143
第五章 結論…………………………………...………...............................146
附件................................................................................................................150
附件一...............................................................................................................................150
附件二...............................................................................................................................151
附件三...............................................................................................................................152
附件四...............................................................................................................................154
參考文獻.......................................................................................................155


圖目錄
圖1.1、裏海地區.....…………………....……………………………………………............2
圖1.2、裏海五國.....................................................................................................................2
圖1.3、各國在裏海地區的角逐狀況.....................................................................................5
圖1.4、俄國轉型為資本主義...............................................................................................11
圖2.1、裏海….....................………………………………………………….…….............16
圖2.2、南高加索..................................................................…………………….…...…….20
圖2.3、亞洲地區...................................................................................................................21
圖2.4、1994至2008年油價走勢圖…………………………………………………..........24
圖2.5、裏海地區的石油及天然氣資源,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,………..................................................26
圖2.6、2006年總主要能源供應的組成比例………….....………………..........................27
圖2.7、哈薩克位於北裏海的油田………………………………………….......................29
圖2.8、亞塞拜然的阿澤裏、奇拉格、古涅什里油田......................................................... 30
圖2.9、2006年裏海天然氣儲量………………………………………………..…….........32
圖2.10、1992~2005年的裏海天然氣生產和出口…………………………………...........32
圖2.11、裏海原油生產預測…………………………………….........................................35
圖2.12、裏海原油出口潛力預測……………………………….........................................35
圖2.13、裏海天然氣生產預測………………………………….........................................36
圖2.14、裏海天然氣出口潛力預測…………………………….........................................36
圖3.1、裏海管道財團管道…………………………....................................………...........62
圖3.2、裏海地區的石油管道………………............………….………………................63
圖3.3、巴庫-提比利斯-塞伊漢油管………........................................................................64
圖3.4、中亞輸油管道…………………………………………….......................................65
圖3.5、哈薩克-中國管道………………………………………………….........................66
圖3.6、哈薩克雙胞胎石油和天然氣管道………...............................................................66
圖3.7、CPC和 BTC管道………………............................................................................74
圖3.8、裏海財團管道終端………………..............……………………………….............75
圖3.9、BTC管道的終端…………………......................…………………………............79
圖3.10、古姆組織的成員國………………………….........................................................86
圖3.11、上海合作組織成員國…………………………..............………............................89
圖3.12、歐亞經濟共同體成員國……………………………………….……...................91
圖3.13、哈薩克油田分佈圖…………………………………………….…………............94
圖3.14、亞塞拜然油田分佈圖……..............………………………..….…………...........94
圖3.15、保加利亞至希臘的石油管道…………………………………….......................101
圖3.16、藍流………………………………………………………………………….......102
圖3.17、石油運輸公司主要管道網路…………………………………......……….........104
圖4.1、CPC財團股東的架構…………………….............................................................131
圖4.2、俄國濱裏海的三個地區…………………………………………………….........133
圖4.3、俄國南部主要行政中心…………………………………………………….........134

表目錄
表2.1、2004年統計石油儲備量……………………………………………………...........28
表2.2、裏海的石油及天然氣-2005年底前的儲量………………………………….........29
表2.3、2004年統計石油生產量……………………………………………………...........31
表2.4、裏海地區的天然氣生產………………………………….......................................33
表2.5、未來裏海石油的生產……………………………….…………………….….........34
表3.1、現有的石油管道………………………………………………………...................64
表3.2、計畫中的主要石油輸出管道…………………………………...............................67
表3.3、計畫中的石油管道支線………………………………………...............................69
表3.4、現有及計畫中的天然氣出口管道…………………………...................................71
表3.5、CPC與BTC管道的異同……………………….......................................................78
表3.6、哈薩克主要石油及天然氣田發展計劃情形………………………………...........96
表3.7、亞塞拜然主要石油及天然氣田發展計劃情形……………………………...........97
表3.8、俄國石油出口管道……………………................................................…..….......100
表3.9、合作與典則(Cooperation and Regimes)………..…………………………….......108
表4.1、裏海國家的外國直接投資量…………………………………………….…........123
表4.2、根據2003的外國資產俄羅斯前十大外國投資者………………………............124
表4.3、俄羅斯在裏海國家的投資金額…………………………………………….........125
表4.4、國際金融機構的功能………………………………………….............................130
表4.5、三個地區能源產業在GRP比例及投資額比率………………………….............135
表4.6、2001年~2006年天然氣凝析油產量…………………………………...............138
表4.7、2001年~2006天然氣凝析油預估產值…………………………………...........139
表4.8、2001年~2006年天然氣及電力產量……………………………………..............140
表4.9、2001年~2006天然電力的預估產值……………………………………..............140
表4.10、石油出口值與國內生產毛額的關係...................................................................141
表4.11、燃料動力產品出口值與國內生產毛額的關係....................................................142
表4.12、南部地區的就業比率，依照經濟活動分類.........................................................143

參考文獻
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英文期刊：
1.	Alam, S., (2004, January 02). Pipeline Politics in the Caspian Sea Basin, Pipeline Politics in the Caspian Sea Basin. Strategic Analysis, 26(1), 5-26.
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4.	Bahgat, G., (2007). HHProspects for energy cooperation in the Caspian SeaHH. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 40(2), 157-168.
5.	Blum, D., (2000). Russia's New Caspian Policy. PONARS Policy, 162, 1-5.
6.	Büyükakınc, E., (2000). Patterns of integration in Central Asia both. EuroMeSCo Papers, 5, 111-131.
7.	Chow, E., (2004). For a thoughtful review of Russian pipelines and the role of Russian energy output in the world market. Journal of international affairs, 5(1), 27-30.
8.	Cohen, A., (2002). Iran’s Claims over Caspian Sea Resources Threaten Energy Security, The Heritage Foundation, 1582, 1-9.
9.	Dellecker, A., (2008). Caspian Pipeline Consortium, Bellwether of Russia’s Investment Climate?, Russia/NIS Center, 31, 2008, 1-23.
10.	Efegil, E., (2001). An Essay on the Russian Foreign Policy toward the Central Asia, EuroMeSCo Papers, 26(1), 1-61.
11.	Fedorov, Y., (2000, Autumn). The Putin Factor in the Caspian, Private View, 54-60.
12.	Fishelson, J., (2007). From the Silk Road to Chevron: The Geopolitics of Oil Pipelines in Central Asia, The Journal of Russian and Asian Studies, 7(1), 22-53.
13.	Fall, S. B., (2006). Conflicy in the South Caucasus, The Royal Society for Asian Affairs, 37(11), 2006, 198-209.
14.	Kepbanov, Y., (1998). The New Legal Status of The Caspian Sea Is the Basis of Regional Co-operation and Stability, Journal of international affairs, 2(4), 1-5.
15.	Mehrdad, H., (2003). Russia’s Regional Role: Conflict or Cooperation: The Coming of Conflict to the Caspian Sea, Problems of Post-Communism, 50(3), 32–41. 
16.	Molchanov, M. &Yevdokimov Y., (2004). Regime Building as a Prime Mover of Technological Progress: The Energy Sector in the Central Asia-Caspian Region, Perspectives on Global Development and Technology, 3(4), 414-434.
17.	Morales, J., (2003). Who Rules Russia Today? An Analysis of Vladimir Putin And His Political Project (I), Research Unit on International Security and Cooperation, 4, 1-11.
18.	Nanay, J., (2003). U.S. Energy Security Issues: Russia and the Caspian, War for Oil in the Former Soviet Union?, Russia Weekly, 30, 1-9.
19.	Ruseckas, L., (2005). State of the Field Report: Energy and Politics in Central Asia and the Caucasus, Access Asia Review, 1(2), 40-56.
20.	Raiszade, A., (2005). The great game of Caspian energy: ambitions and realities, Ambitions and Realities, Journal of Southern Europe and the Balkans, 7(1), 1-18.
21.	Saivetz, C., (2000). Caspian Geopolitics: The View from Moscow, The Brown Journal of World Affairs. The Brown Journal of World Affairs, 7(2), 53-61.
22.	Sarfaraz, L., (2002). Economic Reforms and Foreign Direct Investment in Iran, Mpra Paper, 1480, 2002, 1-14.
23.	Timothy, T., (2000). Russia’s National Interests and the Caspian Sea, CRS reports, 4(4), 2000, 75-96.
24.	Timothy, T. & Shull, J., (1999). Russian National Interests and the Caspian Sea, Journal of international Affairs, 4(4), 1-13.
研討會論文
1.	Bolukbasi, S., (1995, August). The Problems Surrounding: The Export of The Caspian Sea Energy Resources, Paper presented at the summit meeting of the Turkic states, Bishkek.
2.	Matthews, M., (2000). International Lending Agencies and Regional Environmental Cooperation in the Black and Caspian Sea, Annual Meeting of the International Association for the Study of Common Property (pp. 1-35). Indiana: Indiana University.
3.	Pisarev, A., (2006). New Stage of Russian Foreign Policy? Shijie Singe You Liang Anguanxi (pp. 13-27). Taipei: Shiying chubanshe.
4.	Pisarev, A., (2006). New Priorities of Russian Foreign policy: Asia-Pacific Direction, Russia and the Asia-Pacific Region (pp. 1-18). Taipei: Tamkang University.
官方文獻
1.	COWI-CENEf-ICCS/NTUA-Mott MacDonald-SWECO Consortium (2007). Astrakhan Fuel and Energy Balance, Energy Efficiency at Regional Level in Arkhangelsk, Astrakhan and Kaliningrad Regions, Brussels: European Commission.
2.	European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2006). Transition report 2005 Business in transition. London: Author.
3.	European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2007). Transition report 2006 Business in transition. London: Author.
4.	Energy Charter Secretariat (2007). From Wellhead to Market Oil Pipeline Tariffs and Tariff Methodologies in Selected Energy Charter Member Countries, Geneva: Author.
5.	Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation (2003). The Summary of the Energy Strategy of Russia for the Of Up To 2020. Moscow: Author.
6.	The International Monetary Fund (2003). FDI and the Investment Climate in the CIS Countries. Washington: Author.
7.	The North of Atlantic Treaty Organization (1999). Trancaucasus and the Caspian Region with Particular Focus on Energy Issues, Belgium: Author.
8.	United States Trade Representative (2005). 2005 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Washington: Author.
其他英文資料
1.	Caucasus: Caspian oil pipeline shifts allegiances (2006). Oxford Analytica.
2.	Chufrin, G., (2004, October). Russia’s Caspian Energy Policy and its Impact on the U.S.-Russian Relationship. Baker Energy Forum, 1-22.
3.	Gaffney, C. & Associates (2003). Study of the Oil and Gas Sectors in the Caspian with Special Emphasis on Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Glasgow: Trade Partners UK.
4.	Lieven, A., (2006). Energy and Russia’s Foreign Policy. Unpublished manuscript.
5.	Olcott, M., (2004). Vladimir Putin and Russia’s Oil Policy, Baker Energy Forum, 1-35.
6.	The Henry L. Stimson Center (2006). Energy and Russia’s Foreign Policy, Security for a New Century: Study Group Report. Washington: Author.
7.	Vahtra, P., (2005, December). Russia Investment in the CIS-Scope, Motivations and Leverage, Pan-European Institute( pp. 1-20). Retrieved May 5, 2009 from the World Wide Web: HHUUhttp://www.compiler.fi/idankaupan/tutkimukset/TKKK23e.htmlUU
8.	Welch, C., (2002, December). Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline: Overview and Fact Sheet (pp. 1-20). Retrieved December 10, 2006 from the World Wide Web: UUhttp://www.foe.co.uk/index.html
英文論文
1.	Shiver, S., (2006). U.S. Foreign Policy In The Post-Soviet Caspian States. Unpublished master’s thesis, Florida State University College of Social Sciences, Florida. 

俄文書目
1.	Барганджия, Б. А., Гохберг, Л. М., Гельвановский, М. И., Горячева, И. П., и Житков, В. Б., (2007). Ргионы России, Основные характеристики субъектов Российской Федерации 2007, Статистический сборник. (2007年俄國地區統計年鑑) HHМоскваHH: Росстат.
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108.	South Caspian, HHUUhttp://www.casp.cam.ac.uk/reports_research/s_caspain_research.htmlUUHH, 2009/2/23.
109.	The Deadly Pipeline War: U.S. Afghan Policy Driven By Oil Interests, HHUUhttp://jurist.law.pitt.edu/forum/forumnew41.phpUUHH, 2008/7/25.
110.	SCO, HHUUhttp://www.sectsco.org/html/00014.htmlUUHH, 2008/12/15.
111.	HHTaliban: Militant Islam, Oil, and Fundamentalism in Central AsiaHH, HHUUhttp://www.worldpress.org/specials/pp/front.htmUUHH, 2008/7/25.
112.	The Deadly Pipeline War: U.S. Afghan Policy Driven By oil Interests, HHUUhttp://jurist.law.pitt.edu/forum/forumnew41.phpUUHH, 2008/7/25.
113.	HHTaliban: Militant Islam, Oil, and Fundamentalism in Central AsiaHH, HHUUhttp://www.worldpress.org/specials/pp/front.htmUUHH, 2008/7/25.
114.	The Prospects of the Caspian Sea Region in the 21st Century, HHUUhttp://www.euronet.nl/users/sota/TN9732.htmUUHH, 2008/10/6.
115.	Too Soon to Talk of Attack against Iran, HHUUhttp://www.cfr.org/publication/10428/UUHH, 2009/2/17.
116.	The Blue Stream Gas Pipeline, HHUUhttp://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article8895.shtmlUUHH, 2009/01/08.
117.	Transneft Offers to Clear Caspian Pipeline’s Debt by Eurobonds, UUhttp://www.kommersant.com/p782249/Transneft_Caspian_Pipeline_Debt/UU, 2009/1/7.
118.	Transneft Left Out of the Consortium, HHUUhttp://www.kommersant.com/p779833/Caspian_Pipeline_Consortium/UUHH, 2009/1/7. 
119.	Transition to capitalism, HHUUhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/guides/457000/457038/html/default.stmUUHH, 2009/2/12.
120.	The Caspian Oil Company, UUhttp://www.yukos.com/ep/The_Caspian_Oil_Company.aspUU, 2007/7/16.
121.	Transneft Sees Chechen Bypass Line Complete in Mid-2000, HHUUhttp://www.gasandoil.com/GOC/news/ntr01069.htmUUHH, 2009/2/26.
122.	Turkmenistan, HHUUhttps://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tx.htmlUUHH, 2008/10/19.
123.	The Aims of EurAsEC, UUhttp://www.worldtradelaw.net/fta/agreements/eaecfta.pdfUU, 2008/12/18.
124.	The GUUAM Summit: Toward A New Yalta Order For The CIS?, HHUUhttp://www.guuam.org/media/CACA_30jun01.htmUUHH, 2008/12/15.
125.	The GUUAM Group: History And Principles, HHUUhttp://www.guuam.org/general/browse.htmlUUHH, 2008/12/12.
126.	The Geographical Directions of Foreign Policy- the CIS Space, HHUUhttp://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/e78a48070f128a7b43256999005bcbb3/89a30b3a6b65b4f2c32572d700292f74?OpenDocumentUUHH, 2008/8/25.
127.	U.S. Energy Security Issues: Russia and the Caspian, HHUUhttp://foreign.senate.gov/testimony/2003/NanayTestimony030430.pdfUUHH, 2008/12/28.
128.	U.S. Economic and Strategic Interests in the Caspian Sea Region: Policies and Implications, HHUUhttp://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/usazerb/321.htmUUHH, 2008/9/9.
129.	U.S.-Caspian Energy Policy: Promoting Sovereignty and Prosperity, HHUUhttp://clinton5.nara.gov/WH/EOP/NSC/html/nsc-14.htmlUUHH, 2008/9/9.
130.	US Policy In Oil-Rich Caspian Basin, HHUUhttp://www.issi.org.pk/journal/2001_files/no_4/article/5a.htmUUHH, 2009/2/19.
131.	U.S.-Central Asian Cooperation, UUhttp://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2001/11299.htmUU, 2008/7/25.
132.	U.S. Rejects Military Involvement in Caspian Dispute, HHUUhttp://azecon.aznet.org/azecon/news/Caspian%20&%20Energy/2002/mar11-17.htmUUHH, 2008/12/14.
133.	Wolf Outlines U.S. Caucasus/Caspian Energy Policy at Conference, HHUUhttp://www.usembassy.it/file2000_05/alia/a0052215.htmUUHH, 2008/9/9.
134.	What does GUUAM Mean for Caspian Energy?, HHUUhttp://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntc10451.htmUUHH, 2008/12/14.
135.	Yalta Guuam Charter, HHUUhttp://www.guuam.org/doc/browse.htmlUUHH, 2008/12/12.
俄文網站
1.	Валовой региональный продукт по субъектам российской федерации в 1998-2007гг, Федеральная служба государственной статистики, UUhttp://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/b01_19/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d000/vrp98-07.htmUU, 2009/3/15.
2.	Основная номенклатура экспорта январь-июнь 2007 г., HHФТС РоссииHH, HHUUhttp://yutu.customs.ru/ru/statistics/export/popup.php?from642=3&id642=3299&i642=30UUHH, 2009/3/15.
3.	О компании, Транснефть, HHUUhttp://www.transneft.ru/company/UUHH, 2009/5/31.
4.	Товарная структура экспорта и импорта в 2006 г, Федеральная служба государственной статистики, HHUUhttp://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/B07_14p/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d03/25-02.htmUUHH, 2009/6/2.
5.	Федеральная служба государственной статистики, HHUUwww.gks.ruUUHH, 2009/2/16.
6.	Россия в мировой энергетике, HHUUhttp://www.ruseconomy.ru/nomer13_200310/ec02.htmlUUHH, 2008/8/4.
7.	Распределение численности занятого населения по видам экономической Деятельности, HHUUhttp://www.stavstat.ru/region_v_cifrah/trud/DocLib/raspr_po_vidam.htmUUHH, 2009/03/19.
8.	Pаботников организаций области, HHUUhttp://www.oblstat.astranet.ru/astrobl/trud/03.htmUUHH, 2009-03-19.
9.	Среднесписочная численность работников в 2005 году по видам экономической деятельности по республике дагестан (человек), HHUUhttp://academa.ru/faktoryi-i-perspektivyi-povyisheniya-effektivnosti-promyishlennogo-proizvodstva-v-respublike-dagestan.htmlUUHH, 2009/3/20.
10.	Южный федеральный округ россии, HHUUhttp://www.wgeo.ru/russia/okr_ugn.shtmlUUHH, 2006/11/21.