本文主要在探討政府的養育支出補貼政策對生育率及經濟成長的影響。為了分析此一問題，本文生產架構沿用仿照Yip and Zhang (1996) 的設定，同時考量勞動及資本外部性，也假設養育小孩的時間成本與小孩數量呈線性關係。而除考量養育的時間成本外，本文亦考量養育的實質成本，其中養育小孩的實質成本是沿用Blackburn and Cipriani (1998)的設定。

    本文發現養育小孩的實質成本及時間機會成本提高皆會使人口成長率下降，但兩者對經濟成長的影響皆不確定；而當政府實施的補貼比例提高時，可雖刺激人口成長率，但其對經濟成長的影響並不確定。

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of child-bearing subsidy on population and economic growth. The set up of the model is based on Yip and Zhang’s (1996), which considers the externality of both capital and work effort. Yip and Zhang (1996) also assume that the time cost of child bearing is a linear function of population growth. Besides the time cost, this paper also considers the real cost of child bearing. The set-up of the real cost of child bearing is followed by Blackburn and Cipriani (1998).

    We find that the increase of time cost and real bearing cost will decrease the fertility rate, but might not raise the output growth rate. The birth allowance has a positive effect on fertility rate, but has an ambiguous effect on economic growth.

目    錄
第一章  緒論	1
第一節  研究背景與動機	1
第二節  研究目的	4
第三節  研究架構	5
第二章  文獻回顧	6
第一節  人口成長	6
第二節  養育成本	9
第三節  補貼政策	11
第三章  理論模型	13
第一節  導論	13
第二節  模型基本架構	13
第四章  平衡成長路徑上的政策效果分析	19
第一節  平衡成長路徑	19
第二節  政策效果分析	25
第五章  結論	32
參考文獻	34

圖  目  錄  
圖 1台灣歷年平均生育率	1
圖 2 人口成長率的比較	7

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