淡江大學覺生紀念圖書館 (TKU Library)
進階搜尋


下載電子全文限經由淡江IP使用) 
系統識別號 U0002-2106201121334700
中文論文名稱 養育支出補貼與人口及經濟成長
英文論文名稱 The effects of child-bearing subsidy on population and economic growth
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 經濟學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Economics
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生中文姓名 蘇嘉柔
研究生英文姓名 Chia-Jou Su
學號 698570057
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2011-05-25
論文頁數 36頁
口試委員 指導教授-莊希豐
委員-胡春田
委員-陳亞為
中文關鍵字 內生生育率  內生成長  補貼政策  養育支出 
英文關鍵字 Endogenous fertility  endogenous growth  subsidy policy  cost of child rearing 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學經濟學
中文摘要 本文主要在探討政府的養育支出補貼政策對生育率及經濟成長的影響。為了分析此一問題,本文生產架構沿用仿照Yip and Zhang (1996) 的設定,同時考量勞動及資本外部性,也假設養育小孩的時間成本與小孩數量呈線性關係。而除考量養育的時間成本外,本文亦考量養育的實質成本,其中養育小孩的實質成本是沿用Blackburn and Cipriani (1998)的設定。

本文發現養育小孩的實質成本及時間機會成本提高皆會使人口成長率下降,但兩者對經濟成長的影響皆不確定;而當政府實施的補貼比例提高時,可雖刺激人口成長率,但其對經濟成長的影響並不確定。
英文摘要 The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of child-bearing subsidy on population and economic growth. The set up of the model is based on Yip and Zhang’s (1996), which considers the externality of both capital and work effort. Yip and Zhang (1996) also assume that the time cost of child bearing is a linear function of population growth. Besides the time cost, this paper also considers the real cost of child bearing. The set-up of the real cost of child bearing is followed by Blackburn and Cipriani (1998).

We find that the increase of time cost and real bearing cost will decrease the fertility rate, but might not raise the output growth rate. The birth allowance has a positive effect on fertility rate, but has an ambiguous effect on economic growth.
論文目次 目 錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 4
第三節 研究架構 5
第二章 文獻回顧 6
第一節 人口成長 6
第二節 養育成本 9
第三節 補貼政策 11
第三章 理論模型 13
第一節 導論 13
第二節 模型基本架構 13
第四章 平衡成長路徑上的政策效果分析 19
第一節 平衡成長路徑 19
第二節 政策效果分析 25
第五章 結論 32
參考文獻 34

圖 目 錄
圖 1台灣歷年平均生育率 1
圖 2 人口成長率的比較 7
參考文獻 陳智華和謝智源 (2009),社會地位追求行為、經濟成長與人口現象,經濟論文37卷第2期,253-281。

陳映安 (2009),政府政策、內生生育率與經濟成長,台灣大學社會科學院經濟學系,博士論文。

行政院內政部 (2010) 內政統計通報,行政院內政部統計處。

Apps, P. and R. Rees (2004), Feritily, Taxation and Family Policy, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 106 (4), 745-763.

Barro, R. J. and G. S. Becker (1989), Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth, Econometrica, 57, 418-501.

Barro, R. J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (2004), Economic Growth, New York: McGraw-Hill.

Becker, G. S. and H. G. Lewis (1973), On the Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children, Journal of Political Economy, 81, S279-288.

Becker, G. S. (1988), Family Economics and Macro Behavior, American Economic Review, 78, 1-13.

Becker, G. S. and R. J. Barro (1988), A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103, 1-25.

Becker, G. S., K. M. Murphy, and R. Tamura (1990), Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth, Journal of Political Economy, 98, S12-S37.

Benhabib, J. and R. Farmer (1994), Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns, Journal of Economic Theory, 63, 19-41.

Blackburn, K. and G. P. Cipriani (1998), Endogenous Fertility, Mortality and Economic Growth. Journal of Population Economics , 19, 517-534.

Central Intelligence Agency (2010), The World Factbook. CIA.

Deaton, A. and J. Muellbauer (1986), On Measuring Child Cost: With Applications to Poor Countries, Journal of Political Economy, 94, 720-744.

Ehrlich, I. and F. Lui (1991), The Problem of Population Growth: A Review of the Literature from Malthus to Contemporary Models of Endogenous Population and Endogenous Growth, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21, 205-242.

Galor, O. and D. N. Weil (1996), The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth, American Economic Review, 86, 374-387.

Huang, J. T. , A. P. Kao and W. C. Hung (2006),The Influence of College Tuition and Fees on the Fertility Rate in Taiwan, Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 27(4), 626-642.

Malthus, T. P. (1798), An Essay on the Principle of Population and a Summary View of the Principle of Population, Baltimore, Maryland: Penguin.

Milligan, K. (2005), Subsidizing the Stork: new Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility, Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, 539-555.

Palivos, T. and C. K. Yip (1993), Optimal Population Size and Endogenous Growth, Economics Letters, 41, 107-110.

Palivos, T. (1995), Endogenous Fertility, Multiple Growth Paths, and Economic Convergence, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19, 1489-1510.

Palivos, T. and C. K. Yip (1995), Government Expenditure Financing in an Endogenous Growth Model: a Comparison.
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27, 1159-1178.

Population Division of Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007), World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, New York: United Nations.

Population Division of Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, New York: United Nations.

Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94, 1002-1037.

Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94.

Terasa, H. (1979). Time Costs of Child Rearing in the Rural Philippines, Population and Development Review, 5, 643-662.

Wang, P. , C. Yip and C. Scotese (1994), Fertility Choice and Economic Growth. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 76, 255-266.

Whittington, L. A. , J. Alm and H. E. Peters (1990), Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Implicit Pronatalist Policy in the United States, American Economic Review, 80, 545-556.

Yip, C. K. and J. Zhang (1996). Population Growth and Economic Growth: A Reconsideration. Economics Letters, 52, 319-324.

Yip, C. K. and J. Zhang (1997). A Simple Endogenous Growth Model with Endogenous Fertility: Indeterminacy and Uniqueness, Journal of Population Economics, 10, 97-110.

Zhang, J. , J. Quan and P. van Meebergen (1994), The Effect of Tax-Transfer Policies on Fertility in Canada, 1921-88, Journal of Human Resources, 29, 181-201.

Zhang, J. (1997), Fertility, Growth, and Public Investments in Children, Canadian Journal of Economics, 30, 835-843.

Zhang, J. and R. Casagrandde (1998), Fertility, Growth, and Flat-rate Taxation for Education Subsidies, Economics Letters, 60, 209-216.
論文使用權限
  • 同意紙本無償授權給館內讀者為學術之目的重製使用,於2011-06-23公開。
  • 同意授權瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2011-06-23起公開。


  • 若您有任何疑問,請與我們聯絡!
    圖書館: 請來電 (02)2621-5656 轉 2281 或 來信