本文使用台灣地區1982年至2005年期間的樣本資料，實證探索匯率波動性（含匯率標準差與匯率制度）與金融發展程度二項因素對經濟成長（含經濟成長率與總要素生產力年增率）的影響。結果如下：匯率波動性對經濟成長有不顯著的負向影響；金融發展程度對經濟成長具有顯著的正向影響；而二者合併對經濟成長的影響為不顯著的正向。由此推論，金融發展程度尚不足以彌補匯率波動對經濟成長造成的負面影響。換言之，就目前金融發展程度而言，台灣地區尚不具備採行浮動匯率制度的條件。

This article empirically examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations and financial developments on the economical growth in Taiwan using annual data covering the period from 1982 to 2005. Our estimation have shown that exchange rate fluctuations have negative effects and that financial development have positive effects on the economic growth. The effect of interaction of the above two variables are positive, indicating that the adverse effect of exchange rate fluctuation can be eliminate by the development of the financial sector. However, the current level of financial development is still not sufficient to accomplish the task.

目次
目次....................................................I
表目錄.................................................II
圖目錄.................................................II
第一章 緒論.............................................1
第一節  研究背景與動機..................................1
第二節　研究目的........................................7
第三節　論文架構........................................8
第二章 文獻探討.........................................9
第一節  經濟成長........................................9
第二節　經濟成長與總體經濟因素.........................17
第三節　經濟成長與匯率波動性...........................21
第四節　經濟成長與金融發展程度.........................24
第三章 實證模型........................................27
第一節  實證方程式	.....................................27
第二節　資料來源.......................................33
第四章  實證結果分析...................................35
第一節  經濟成長率、匯率波動性與金融發展程度...........35
第二節  總要素生產力年增率、匯率波動性與金融發展程度...40
第三節　經濟成長、匯率波動性、金融發展程度與門檻效果...44
第五章 結論............................................51
參考文獻...............................................54


表目錄
表3-1 變數定義、計算方式與資料來源.....................33
表3-2 各變數敍述統計量分析.............................34
表4-1 實證估計結果.....................................36
表4-2 實證估計結果.....................................41
表4-3 實證估計結果.....................................46
表4-4 實證估計結果.....................................47

圖目錄
圖1-1 台灣地區經濟成長率................................4
圖1-2 新台幣兌美元匯率波動率............................5
圖1-3 金融發展程度指標..................................5
圖4-1 經濟成長率：金融發展程度與門檻...................50
圖4-2 總要素生產力年增率：金融發展程度與門檻...........50

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