目前台灣以焚化爐焚燒來處理垃圾的比率愈來愈高，但是焚化爐煙道所排出的戴奧辛卻變成為環境的一大問題。目前判斷戴奧辛煙道排放來源的主要方法之一是利用指紋分析比對，但這種方法過於主觀而且只要所分析的化合物種類太多圖譜便會複雜，所以必須利用統計方法分析，才能有正確客觀的科學依據。
    本文將先針對目前13座分散在台灣的焚化爐煙道的戴奧辛採樣樣本化合物含量比率進行指紋分析，再利用Dirichlet分布來進行統計檢定。將採樣樣本當成大樣本進行概似比檢定比較焚化爐間化合物的差異，並佐以Boostrap法進行驗證。結果顯示檢定的結果與指紋分析的結果吻合，但還是建議以增加樣本數才會讓結果更為精確。

In Taiwan, municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) is the dominant municipal waste treatment method, which is known to be source of dioxin release in the environment. The dioxin compounds consist of 17 2,3,7,8-PCDD/Fs different chemicals with the histogram of relative percentages form a fingerprint. By analyzing the fingerprint of a dioxin sample one may identify possible pollutant sources of collected dioxin samples. Up to date there has been lacking a formal statistical method for fingerprint analysis. The aims of this thesis is to develop a solid statistical method to compare fingerprints of dioxin samples collected at different sites to identify whether they have the same pattern. The dataset consists dioxin samples collected from 13 incinerator stacks across Taiwan with sample sizes ranging from 3 to 20. The Dirichlet distribution was applied to characterize the fingerprint of samples collected from the same stack. Statistical hypothesis testing is then to test whether the vector of parameters of the corresponding Dirichlet distributions from two different stack samples are the same or not using likelihood ratio test statistic. Asymptotic result as well as bootstrap method were applied and compared for the fingerprint comparisons. The results showed that the proposed method conformed to the preliminary analysis using Pearson correlation coefficients.

第一章    緒論................................1
1.1 前言......................................1
1.2 研究目的..................................4
第二章    敘述性統計分析......................6
2.1   指紋分析................................6
      2.2.1 指紋圖分析比對....................9
      2.2.2 分組後指紋圖分析比對.............16
第三章    統計方法分析.......................26
      3.1  統計模型建立...........................................26
      3.2  統計檢定............................................29
      3.2.1 大樣本檢定............................................31
3.2.2  Bootstrap 法檢定............................................33
第四章    結論................................36
參考文獻......................................37
附錄1. 十三座焚化爐煙道採集戴奧辛樣本資料.....38
附錄2. 十三座焚化爐煙道採集戴奧辛樣本百分比...51
附錄3. 分組後十三座焚化爐煙道採集樣本百分比...64
附錄4. .MLE程式...................................71
 
                        圖目錄
圖1. 溪洲焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖...................................................10
圖2. 內湖焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖...................................................10
圖3. 新竹焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖...................................................11
圖4. 台中焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖...................................................11
圖5. 八里焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖...................................................11
圖6. 仁武焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................. 12
圖7. 南區焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖...................................................12
圖8. 中區焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖...................................................13
圖9. 新店焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖...................................................13
圖10. 木柵焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................13
圖11. 北投焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................14
圖12. 樹林焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................14
圖13. 桃南焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................14
圖14. 仁武焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................19
圖15. 南區焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................19
圖16. 台中焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................20
圖17. 八里焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................20
圖18. 溪洲焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................21
圖19. 內湖焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................21
圖20. 南區焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................22
圖21. 中區焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................23
圖22. 桃南焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................23
圖23. 新竹焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................24
圖24. 北投焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................24
圖25. 新店焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................25
圖26. 樹林焚化爐PCCD/Fs指紋圖.................................................25

                        表目錄
表1. 各座焚化爐平均濃度百分比...................................................8
表2. 各座焚化爐間平均濃度百分比的相關係數...........................15
表3. 各座焚化爐分組後平均濃度百分比.......................................17
表5. 各座焚化爐MLE值.................................................................28
表6. 45種焚化爐組合的概似比檢定統計量-2log LR.....................32
表7. 45種焚化爐組合的p-value.......................................................35

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[2]Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (2006). Dioxin and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon chemical signatures (fingerprints) in sediments. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service, Atlanta.
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http://research.microsoft.com/~minka/papers/dirichlet/minka-dirtree.pdf
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[8] Bradley, E. and Robert, J.T. An Instroduction to the Bootstrap, Chapman & Hall.