淡江大學覺生紀念圖書館 (TKU Library)
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系統識別號 U0002-2101201419500200
中文論文名稱 影響美國總統表現滿意度指標之關鍵變數 —運用緃橫迴歸方程式分析
英文論文名稱 The Determinants of US Presidential Job Approval —A Panel Data Regression Approach
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 美洲研究所博士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of The Americas
學年度 102
學期 1
出版年 103
研究生中文姓名 劉文傑
研究生英文姓名 Wen-Chieh Liu
學號 898250013
學位類別 博士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2014-01-14
論文頁數 296頁
口試委員 指導教授-柯大衛
委員-胡均立
委員-萬哲鈺
委員-陳思寬
委員-郭迺峰
中文關鍵字 總統滿意度  緃橫迴歸方程式  虛擬變數  社會心理學  民意調查 
英文關鍵字 Presidential Job Approval  Presidential Approval Rating  Panel Data Regression  Dummy Variable  Social Psychology  Survey Method 
學科別分類
中文摘要 總統滿意度是評估工作表現的指標,它是民主政治中獨有的特色,不論在選舉期間或平常任期,已成為反應美國總統政治實力的最佳指標,特別是在選舉期間,若能充份運用影響滿意度的關鍵變數,將有利掌握政治權力的根源。這個領域自1970年代由慕勒教授創始後快速發展,研究主軸亦不斷演進。
本論文研究資料始自1948年1月至2012年10月,共約64年,前後包括杜魯門至歐巴馬等12位總統。各總統任期內每月滿意度數據經相連結後,即成為迴歸方程式之因變數,其他經理論探討後可能具有影響滿意度之各類變數,則視為方程式自變數。這些自變數可區分為4大類,第1類是處理時間序列特性的周期變數與遲滯變數;第2類是各類經濟變數;第3類是消費者信心指數;最後1類則是為掌握個別獨特效應而設計之虛擬變數。藉由建立客觀一致的篩選標準,將發生在總統任內的重要事件,彙整成為重要事件的資料庫,並依屬性歸入政治、軍事、社會等3大類,據以編成虛擬變數,帶入迴歸方程式分析,如此一來即可考量原無法以計量觀點分析的因素,有效擴大分析層面。
本研究以每位總統在位期間的月份取代實際的日期,並視為各總統彼此間關連之因素, 12位總統均視為具有2任96個月的任期,如此始得以運用緃橫迴歸方程式概念,做為計量分析各類自變數與因變數間的技巧。納入方程式內分析的自變數,都有具體的實證結論;另本研究其他的特色,包括將社會心理學領域中探討受訪者心智作用過程的相關理論,充份運用於篩選自變數及解讀實證結果的重要考量;另亦深入瞭解蓋洛普民意調查公司執行民意調查的程序,俾利驗証足可獲得可信度與準確度的民意調查理論。
本論文共分為六章。第1章緒論闡述研究背景、動機、目的、研究問題及限制;第二章文獻探討完整收錄研究領域之最新發展趨勢,並將具體研究主題分類描述;第三章收錄社會心理學之研究主軸及民意調查程序的相關理論;第四章彙整本研究所使用之各類相關理論;第五章彙整經過統計分析之實證結果,並對實證結果加以解讀。第六章則比較本研究之成果與其他研究結論相同與相異之處,並提出未來可能的研究方向。
英文摘要 Presidential job approval(presidential approval rating), a survey indicator, falls into the category of performance evaluation for incumbent presidents. This indicator is considered as one of the signature features for democratic politics in modern times. In fact, it has been widely used during both elections and ordinary times as an indicator of actual presidential popularity in America. It is well recognized that the presidential candidate who can make the best use of the determinants of presidential approval ratings during the elections will have the edge to grasp the source of political power. The studies in this field, founded by Professor John Muller in the 1970s, have rapidly developed ever since. The main themes of this research are continuously evolving with the time.
The timeline for these studies originated on January 1 1948 and ended in October 2012, making a total study length of 64 years. If we put the said timeline into context, the studies covered 12 presidents in all, starting with President Truman and ending with President Obama. The presidential approval ratings of each of the 12 presidents were concatenated into a single time series, and treated as the dependent variable of panel data regression. As far as the independent variables are concerned, all the potential factors are divided into four different categories, including the factors dealing with the features of time series, a wide range of economic variables, consumer confidence indexes, and various dummy variables. The way we create dummy variables is to select critical events that attracted the US public's attention in the 12 presidents, and separate them into three categories. These categories are political affairs, military events, and social affairs based on nature of event. By doing this, the study successfully broadens the perspectives by treating non-quantitative factors as independent variables of panel data regression. Moreover, we create a chronological database for important events.
In this dissertation, we replace the actual date with the month in office of each of the 12 presidents, and restructure one-dimensional time series into a three-dimensional format. Furthermore, we investigate the theories of Social Psychology to consider the mind workings of each individual who takes the survey. Meanwhile, we consider issues from Gallup's perspective, and seek confirmation between theory and actual procedures.
This dissertation is divided into six chapters. Chapter one introduces the study background, research motivation, research questions, and limitations. Chapter two provides the results of a comprehensive literature review. Chapter three includes the main theories in the fields of social psychology and survey method. Chapter four consists of a wide range of statistics theories that were applied in this study. Chapter five is composed of the results of the statistics empirical results, and the last chapter includes conclusions made by comparing the achievements of this study to other research results and potential topics for future work.
論文目次 目 錄

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 動機與目地 4
一、研究背景 4
二、研究動機 7
三、研究目的 8
第二節 研究問題與成果 10
一、研究問題 10
二、研究限制 14
三、研究成果 19
第二章 文獻探討 25
第一節 總統滿意度研究趨勢之演變 25
第二節 選取單一總統為研究標的 33
第三節 選取重要事件時間點為研究標的 38
第四節 檢驗特定變數為研究標的 43
第三章 社會心理學與民意調查理論 51
第一節 社會心理學 53
第二節 民意調查理論 88
第三節 民意調查案例 111
第四章 相關理論議題與分析變數 119
第一節相關理論議題 119
一、解讀組合式總統滿意度時間序列 119
二、運用單根測試理論之討論 125
第二節 影響總統滿意度之可能因素 131
一、處理時間序列具有特色之變數 133
二、經濟類變數 141
三、消費者信心指數 155
四、虛擬變數 161
第五章 實證結果與分析 175
第一節 實證模型與理論 175
一、實證模型 175
二、運用緃橫迴歸方程式 179
第二節時間序列之相關議題 190
一、時間序列資料的相關資訊 190
二、時間序列資料的先期處理 194
第三節 實證結果 197
一、迴歸分析之檢驗標準 198
二、實證結果解讀 204
第四節 與其他研究成果相同及差異性 224
第六章 結論 233
附錄 241
附表 257
參考文獻 287

圖目錄
圖 1杜魯門總統至歐巴馬總統任內滿意度走勢 ........... 120
圖 2模擬單一總統之滿意度數據(Concatenated time series) ..... 123
圖 3呈現外擴發散之油價變數,具單根特徵(1976.1.~2012.10.) ... 127
圖 4 KPSS單根測試總統滿意度序列的結果 ................ 130
圖 5各任總統滿意度時間序列走勢之共同特徵 ............. 133
圖 6小布希總統任內之總統滿意度走勢 ................... 134
圖 7週期時間序列變數示意圖 ........................... 136
圖 8週期時間序列平方變數圖 ........................... 136
圖 9每月失業率 (1948.01.~2012.10.) ................... 142
圖 10每月通貨膨脹變化率 (1948.01.~2012.10.) .......... 144
圖 11每月痛苦指數(Misery Index) (1948.01.~2012.10).....146
圖 12標準普爾指數(S&P 500)每月變化率 (1948.01.~2012.10.) ... 148
圖 13每月債務對國民生產毛額比 (1948.01.~2012.10.) ..... 151
圖 14每月債務對國民生產毛額比變化率 (1948.01.~2012.10.) .. 152
圖 15密西根大學消費者信心指數(1978.01.~2012.10.) ... 156
圖 16經濟諮商會消費者信心指數 (1978.01.~2012.10.) .. 158
圖 17小型企業樂觀指數(1986.01.~2014.01.,NFIB網站) .. 159
圖 18虛擬變數架構圖及對應英文代碼 ............... 163
圖 19國外政治負面效應變數(1948.01.~2012.10) ..... 164
圖 20國外政治正面效應變數(1948.01.~2012.10.) .... 165
圖 21國內政治負面效應變數(1948.01.~2012.10.) .... 166
圖 22國內政治正面效應變數(1948.01.~2012.10.) .... 167
圖 23短期軍事正面效應變數 (1948.01.~2012.10.) ... 169
圖 24短期軍事負面效應變數(1948.01.~2012.10.) .... 170
圖 25軍事長期負面效應變數 (1948.01.~2012.10.) ... 172
圖 26社會事務正面效應變數 (1948.01.~2012.10.) ... 172
圖 27社會事務負面效應變數 (1948.01.~2012.10.) ... 173
圖 28選取統計迴歸模式之演進過程 ................. 180


表格目錄
表格 1 本文涵蓋12位總統就職與卸任日期 ......... 186
表格 2 運用於緃橫迴歸方程式之自變數組合(第1~10) ... 187
表格 3運用於緃橫迴歸方程式之自變數組合(第11~18) .. 188
表格 4運用於緃橫迴歸方程式之自變數組合(第19~26) .. 189
表格 5一般失業率與通貨膨脹率指標效應實證結果 ... 208
表格 6 一般失業率與長期失業率效應實證結果 ..... 211
表格 7 標準普爾股標指數實證結果 ............... 215
表格 8 債務對國內生產毛額比實證結果 ........... 217
表格 9 消費者信心指數實證結果 ................. 218
表格 10 政治類虛擬變數實證結果.................. 221
表格 11 軍事類虛擬變數實證結果 .................. 221
表格 12 社會事務類虛擬變數實證結果 .............. 222
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