進階長程演進網路(Long Term Evolution-Advanced, LTE-A)是由3GPP 所制定的高速無線網路的標準，以提供高速率及低延遲的無線網路為目標。當使用者設備逐漸遠離原服務基地台的訊號範圍時，會導致所接收的訊號強度減弱，甚至中斷連線。此時就必須執行換手(handover)的程序，當執行換手時，可能會因為過早換手、過晚換手與換手至錯誤基地台造成換手失敗，導致封包遺失或通訊斷訊的問題。
本論文提出一個預測的換手機制，使用者設備提供相關資訊，對其環境做出相對應的判斷，換手至最合適的目標基地台。藉由使用者設備提供的資訊預測設備的位置資訊與速率為基礎，並且調整相關參數觸發時間值，將參數調整符合最適合的數值，有效率地選擇目標基地台，降低換手失敗率與乒乓換手的發生，進而提升通訊的品質。同時也進行了整合的模擬實驗，結合使用者設備移動速率預測機制以及觸發時間調適機制。實驗結果顯示，與標準的換手流程相比使用者設備速率預測可明顯降低換手失敗率與乒乓換手率。

3GPP Long Term Evolution- Advanced (LTE-A) defines a wireless network standard for high packet transmission rate and low packet latency provisions. When an user equipment(UE) moves away from signal range of serving cell may cause the received signal strength weakened, even if disconnected. To solve this problem, it is necessary to execute handover procedure. When executed handover procedure, it is may fail because to early handover, to late handover or handover to wrong cell and then occur packet loss or communication interruption problems.
    In this thesis, we propose predicted handover mechanism. User equipments provide history information for eNBs to estimate the user equipment’s location and velocity. Based on history information, our proposed mechanism can achieve to handover the appropriate target cell. Through selecting the target cell efficiently, we can reduce the rate of handover failure and Ping-Pong handover. Finally, improving the UE’s QoS. And conducted a simulation integration, combined with the user equipment velocity prediction mechanism and trigger time adjustment mechanism. Experimental results show that compared with the standard user equipment handover process can significantly reduce the rate of handover failure and Ping-Pong handover.

目錄
第一章 緒論	1
1-1 研究背景	3
1-2 研究動機及目的	7
1-3 論文架構	9
第二章 相關技術與研究	10
2-1 LTE-A換手基本流程介紹	10
2-2 LTE-A換手產生的問題	13
2-3 觸發時間	18
2-4 使用者設備歷史訊息	20
2-5 自我組織網路	25
第三章 應用LTE-A移動速率之換手預測機制	30
3-1 歷史訊息資訊	32
3-2 移動速率之換手預測	41
3-3 歷史資訊更新	45
第四章 模擬與分析	47
4-1 模擬環境	48
4-2 模擬結果分析與比較	50
第五章 結論與未來研究方向	53
5-1 結論	53
5-2 未來研究方向	54
參考文獻	55
附錄 - 英文論文	65  

圖目錄
圖1、IEEE與3GPP無線網路進化路線	4
圖2、自我組織網路的主要目標	6
圖3、LTE-A基本換手流程	10
圖4、過早換手	13
圖5、過晚換手	14
圖6、換手至錯誤基地台	15
圖7、乒乓換手	16
圖8、TTT示意圖	19
圖9、log file記錄資訊	22
圖10、Mobility Prediction via Markov Chains步驟	24
圖11、SON主要功能	26
圖12、SON結構	27
圖13、移動強固性示意圖	29
圖14、UE偵測示意圖	30
圖15、機制運作流程圖	31
圖16、提出之使用者設備歷史記錄資訊	33
圖17、連接次數示意圖	34
圖18、連接時間示意圖	36
圖19、離開時間示意圖	37
圖20、使用者設備速率	39
圖21、提出之換手機制流程圖	44
圖22、歷史資訊更新流程圖	46
圖23、模擬環境	49
圖24、換手精準度比較圖	50
圖25、換手失敗比較圖	51
圖26、乒乓換手比較圖	52

表目錄
表1、LTE-Advance的演進	4
表2、觸發時間值的16項定義值	19
表3、使用者設備歷史資訊規格	20
表4、上一次拜訪基地台記錄規格	21
表5、SON標準規定	25
表6、SON結構優缺點	27
表7、實驗參數	49

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