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系統識別號 U0002-2007201516460800
中文論文名稱 評估東盟區域內經濟關係:貿易引力模型中的應用
英文論文名稱 Assessing ASEAN Intraregional Economic Relations: An Application of the Gravity Model of Trade
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
學年度 103
學期 2
出版年 104
研究生中文姓名 何怡芳
研究生英文姓名 Ivonne Hernandez
電子信箱 ivonnemhb@gmail.com
學號 602330317
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2015-06-11
論文頁數 58頁
口試委員 指導教授-柯大衛
委員-曾怡碩
委員-翁明賢
中文關鍵字 東南亞國協  引力模型  區域內貿易  彈性  面板數據  固定效應回歸 
英文關鍵字 ASEAN  Gravity Model  Intraregional Trade  Elasticity  Panel Data  Fixed Effect Regression 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學政治學
學科別社會科學區域研究
中文摘要 本論文之目的是透過運用國際貿易引力模型中對於包括東協區域範圍內貿易的一般決定因素的分類和統計分析。如果使用得當,貿易引力模型將可以使貿易的預測更加準確,並以此來區分貿易頻繁或貧乏的地區。

本文的分析是聚焦於每個東協成員國的國內生產總值以及衡量在這些國家之間的交易成本,並評估這些因素對東協的影響。影響兩國貿易中最重要的因素被認為是貿易的成本。這些成本可以被認為是相對固定的費用和高度可變成本。它們可以被進一步分類為自然發生和人造的。

降低貿易成本的收益遠大於穩定收入增長的收益。東協及世界銀行就此觀點與本文有相同的理解。然而,許多這些成本是隱藏或潛伏或隱性的,不能被容易地確認或識別。因此,東盟國家必須負起確定並降低這些貿易障礙的責任。
英文摘要 The following Thesis Dissertation objective consisted of the categorization and statistical analysis of the general determinants of intraregional ASEAN trade through the use of the gravity model of international trade. Used properly, the gravity model of trade can predict trade rather accurately and can illuminate where trade is deficient and where it is successful.

Our analysis was done by focusing on each of the member states’ GDP and a general measure of the trading cost between them, moreover assessing their effect on trade in ASEAN. The most important factor affecting bilateral trade is thought to be the cost of doing the trade. These costs can be thought of as relatively fixed costs and highly variable costs. They can be further categorized as natural and man-made.

The gains from reducing trade costs far outweigh the gains from stabilizing income growth. ASEAN and the World Bank appear to understand this point and seem to agree with us on this matter. However, many of these costs are hidden or are latent or implicit and cannot be readily defined or identified. It is therefore incumbent on the countries of ASEAN to work closely and honestly in identifying these impediments and work hard to reduce them.
論文目次 Table of Contents III
List of Tables V
List of Figures VI
Chapter I Introduction 1
1.1 Topic of Research and Related Issues 1
1.2 Research Motivation and General Overview 5
Section 1.3 Research Methodology 7
1.4 Research Constraints and Limitations 11
Chapter II Literature Review 13
2.1 A Short history of gravity trade models 13
2.2 ASEAN Analyses Using the Gravity Model 14
Chapter III  Theoretical Aspects of the Gravity Model of Trade 16
3.1 Introduction to the Model 17
3.2 The Microeconomic Mechanics of the Gravity Model 21
3.3 Generalizing Cost in the Gravity Model and Extension of the Model 25
3.4 Conclusion 27
Chapter IV Empirical Model and Analysis 28
4.1 Introduction to the Model and Data Sources 29
4.2 Costs of Trade Barriers 31
4.3 Empirical Results, Basic Diagnostics, and Discussion 34
4.4 Individual Gravity Estimations Across the Region 39
4.5 Conclusions to the Chapter 40
Chapter V Conclusions and Recommendations 42
References…………… 45


List of Tables
TABLE 1 POOLED OLS REGRESSION 48
TABLE 2 FIXED EFFECTS PANEL REGRESSION 49
TABLE 3 RANDOM EFFECTS PANEL REGRESSION 50
TABLE 4 FIXED EFFECTS DYNAMIC PANEL REGRESSION 51












List of Figures
FIGURE 1 BILATERAL TRADE IMPEDIMENT COSTS 52
FIGURE 2 AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE IN BILATERAL TRADE IMPEDIMENT COSTS (1997-2013) 53
FIGURE 3 ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ON GDP IN GRAVITY EQUATION- UN REPORTER COUNTRY 54
FIGURE 4 ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ON GDP IN GRAVITY EQUATION – UN PARTNER COUNTRY 55
FIGURE 5 ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ON COST IN GRAVITY EQUATION .56

Gretl Script Program for Estimating All Bilateral Gravity Equations……………………………………………………………………………..57
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