本論文之目的是透過運用國際貿易引力模型中對於包括東協區域範圍內貿易的一般決定因素的分類和統計分析。如果使用得當，貿易引力模型將可以使貿易的預測更加準確，並以此來區分貿易頻繁或貧乏的地區。
   
本文的分析是聚焦於每個東協成員國的國內生產總值以及衡量在這些國家之間的交易成本，並評估這些因素對東協的影響。影響兩國貿易中最重要的因素被認為是貿易的成本。這些成本可以被認為是相對固定的費用和高度可變成本。它們可以被進一步分類為自然發生和人造的。
   
降低貿易成本的收益遠大於穩定收入增長的收益。東協及世界銀行就此觀點與本文有相同的理解。然而，許多這些成本是隱藏或潛伏或隱性的，不能被容易地確認或識別。因此，東盟國家必須負起確定並降低這些貿易障礙的責任。

The following Thesis Dissertation objective consisted of the categorization and statistical analysis of the general determinants of intraregional ASEAN trade through the use of the gravity model of international trade. Used properly, the gravity model of trade can predict trade rather accurately and can illuminate where trade is deficient and where it is successful.
 
Our analysis was done by focusing on each of the member states’ GDP and a general measure of the trading cost between them, moreover assessing their effect on trade in ASEAN. The most important factor affecting bilateral trade is thought to be the cost of doing the trade. These costs can be thought of as relatively fixed costs and highly variable costs. They can be further categorized as natural and man-made.
 
The gains from reducing trade costs far outweigh the gains from stabilizing income growth. ASEAN and the World Bank appear to understand this point and seem to agree with us on this matter. However, many of these costs are hidden or are latent or implicit and cannot be readily defined or identified. It is therefore incumbent on the countries of ASEAN to work closely and honestly in identifying these impediments and work hard to reduce them.

Table of Contents	III
List of Tables	V
List of Figures	VI
Chapter I 	Introduction	1
1.1  Topic  of Research and Related Issues	1
1.2  Research Motivation and General Overview	5
Section 1.3   Research Methodology	7
1.4  Research Constraints and Limitations	11
Chapter II　Literature Review	13
2.1 A Short history of gravity trade models	13
2.2  ASEAN Analyses Using the Gravity Model	14
Chapter III 　Theoretical Aspects of the Gravity Model of Trade	16
3.1  Introduction to the Model	17
3.2  The Microeconomic Mechanics of the Gravity Model	21
3.3  Generalizing Cost in the Gravity Model and Extension of the Model	25
3.4  Conclusion	27
Chapter IV　Empirical Model and Analysis	28
4.1 Introduction to the Model and Data Sources	29
4.2  Costs of Trade Barriers	31
4.3  Empirical Results, Basic Diagnostics, and Discussion	34
4.4  Individual Gravity Estimations Across the Region	39
4.5  Conclusions to the Chapter	40
Chapter V　Conclusions and Recommendations	42
References……………	45

 
List of Tables
TABLE 1 POOLED OLS REGRESSION	48
TABLE 2 FIXED EFFECTS PANEL REGRESSION	49
TABLE 3 RANDOM EFFECTS PANEL REGRESSION	50
TABLE 4 FIXED EFFECTS DYNAMIC PANEL REGRESSION	51











 
List of Figures
FIGURE 1 BILATERAL TRADE IMPEDIMENT COSTS	52
FIGURE 2 AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE IN BILATERAL TRADE IMPEDIMENT COSTS (1997-2013)	53
FIGURE 3 ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ON GDP IN GRAVITY EQUATION- UN REPORTER COUNTRY	54
FIGURE 4 ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ON GDP IN GRAVITY EQUATION – UN PARTNER COUNTRY	55
FIGURE 5 ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ON COST IN GRAVITY EQUATION	.56

Gretl Script Program for Estimating All Bilateral Gravity Equations……………………………………………………………………………..57

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