本研究使用加拿大、德國、西班牙、法國、英國、愛爾蘭、義大利、日本以及南韓在1985年至2015年的季資料，利用混合迴歸、隨機效果、固定效果、組間估計與分量迴歸等五個估計方法，來探討以下兩個問題：1.美國聯準會推動的貨幣政策是否會對國外房屋價格產生影響。2.美國聯準會對國外房屋價格產生的影響是間接的還是直接的。
研究中使用五個不同的估計方法，針對修改過後的利率期限結構分析，用注重「複合利率」，不是僅僅根據長期或短期利率來考慮美國聯準會政策對國外房屋價格成長之直接和間接影響，我們發現美國聯準會可以同時擁有直接與間接影響國家房屋市場的影響力。直接的方式，像是透過利率和資本流動並配合可能的貨幣供應變動產生影響；而間接影響則是會通過人民對經濟前景變化的信心程度，以及國外貨幣政策的潛在變化的預期性，尤其是當房屋已金融化時，美國聯準會的貨幣政策對其各國家的資產市場產生深遠的影響影響更為明顯。研究結果證明美國利率期限結構對外國房價有直接的影響，且直接效果大過於間接影響效果。

The purpose of this research is to identify (i) whether there is an effect on International housing prices from the Fed monetary policy. (ii) The effect on International housing price from Fed monetary policy is direct or indirect. We use quarterly data from Dallas fed bank which includes Canada, Germany, Spain, French, UK, Ireland, Italy, Japan and South Korea from 1985 to 2015.By applying 5 different estimation methods with adjusted term structure that focusing on the complex interest rate instead of neither long term interest rate nor short term interest rate on the effect on International housing price from Fed monetary policies. We found out that Fed monetary policy can influence international housing price both direct and indirect. The direct way is caused by the change of interest rate and capital flow with the money supply. The indirect way is caused by the confident that people have to economic prospered changes and the potential expectation in the foreign monetary policies. The monetary policy will cause further effect especially when housing is financialized.

第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究背景……………………………………………………………………………………………………1
第二節 研究動機與研究目的……………………………………………………………………………3
第三節 研究方法……………………………………………………………………………………………………5
第四節 研究限制……………………………………………………………………………………………………6
第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………………………………………………………7
第一節 房屋價格影響因素…………………………………………………………………………………7
第二節 貨幣政策對房屋價格的影響………………………………………………………………10
第三章 央行政策與國際房屋價格之理論………………………………………………………13
第一節 導論…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….13
第二節 房屋價格與三難困境………………………………………………………………………………16
第三節 住宅與利率的期限結構…………………………………………………………………………21
第四節 短期住宅需求與其他決定因素……………………………………………………………23
第五節 理論議題總結……………………………………………………………………………………………25
第四章 實證分析………………………………………………………………………………………………………27
第一節 數據來源與處理方法………………………………………………………………………………29
第二節 實證分析………………………………………………………………………………………………………31
第五章 結論……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….43
參考文獻	…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….47

圖次
圖3.1…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….16
圖3.2…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….18
圖3.3…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….19
圖3.4…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….20
表4.1…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….33
表4.2…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….35
表4.3…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….37
表4.4…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….39
圖4.1…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….41
圖4.2…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….41
圖4.3…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….42
圖4.4…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….42

鄭保國（2009）。美國霸權探析。台北：秀威資訊。

期刊：
李美杏、陳威廷與彭建文（2014）。亞洲城市房屋價格基值與泡沫。都市與計劃，41(2)，169-198。
洪淑娟、雷立芬(2010)。中古屋、預售屋/新成屋房價與總體經濟變數互動關係之研究。臺灣銀行季刊， 61(1)，155-167。
吳中書、陳建福(2010)。臺灣信用管道之探討。台灣經濟預測與政策，41(1)，121-153。
吳森田(1994)。所得、貨幣與房價–近二十年台北地區的觀察。住宅學報，2，49-64。

學位論文：
黎佳貞(2012)。從貨幣政策看房屋價格之變動趨勢─以臺北市為例。國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文，未出版，台北市。
林清和與陳光華（1980）。台北區房屋市場購買及訂價行為之研究。國立交通大學管理科學所碩士論文，未出版，新竹市。
洪新宜(2004)。房屋價格、借貸限制與貨幣政策。國立台灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文，未出版，台北市。


 
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