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系統識別號 U0002-2006201404104900
中文論文名稱 美國倡建國際貨幣基金之決策過程
英文論文名稱 The U.S.’s Decision-Making Process of Initiating International Monetary Fund
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 美洲研究所博士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of The Americas
學年度 102
學期 2
出版年 103
研究生中文姓名 胡隴凱
研究生英文姓名 Lung-Kai Hu
學號 894220036
學位類別 博士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2014-05-24
論文頁數 233頁
口試委員 指導教授-陳一新
委員-李明
委員-何思因
委員-劉德海
委員-蔡瑋
中文關鍵字 理性模式  組織模式  政府政治模式  總統決策模式  國際貨幣基金 
英文關鍵字 Rational Actor Model  Organizational Behavior Model  Governmental Politics Model  Presidential Decision-making Model  IMF 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本論文透過美國倡議成立國際貨幣基金組織的探討,來了解美國戰後金融外交政策的思維與決策脈絡、探究美國國際金融政策的主導部門如何轉換、分析羅斯福總統的領導與決策風格。本研究以艾里遜(Graham T. Allison)之決策理論,設立模式假設,以美國倡導成立國際貨幣基金的決策過程為案例,來驗證理論假設。同時,本論文亦檢視艾里遜決策理論,在解釋本案例上是否有不足之處,並且輔之以其他決策模式,以求對本案例可以有完整透徹之了解。
本論文依照、補充艾里遜決策理論所提出了四項假設:H1 愈符合國家利益與目標並具可行性的備選方案,愈能夠勝出而成為國家政策。H2當組織目標明確,且具專業之組織文化,及作業程序事權統一時,該組織提出的政策較容易出線,成為國家最後的政策。H3當一位決策參與者愈能掌握議價優勢,並與總統有密切關係時,其政策主張愈能夠獲得青睞而勝出。H4:總統若鼓勵各種不同意見表達,建立多元溝通管道,他自身即成為政策形成的關鍵決策人物。
在理性行為模式方面,本研究發現:一、羅斯福政府的戰後國際金融政策目標為:避免戰後貨幣與債信系統的崩潰,重蹈第一次世界大戰的覆轍,以確保美國在世界的貿易,並恢復美國與世界戰後的信心與經濟發展。二、依據其目標,羅斯福政府有下列備選方案:美國國務院所提出的自由貿易方案、英國凱因斯所提出的國際清算組織計畫、美國財政部所提出的國際貨幣組織計畫。三、美國依據下面幾項理由選擇了國際貨幣組織計畫:美國對自己實力的了解與展現,得以推動對自身有利的計畫;英國方案不符合美國利益,凱因斯主要考量的是英國利益與金融地位;國際貨幣組織計畫多邊組織的實際性,英國可接受,並符合美國利益。
在組織行為模式方面,本研究發現:一、在組織目標上,國務院主張自由開放的政策缺乏國際現實性,財政部的政策目標明確實際,考慮到國際外交現實。二、 在組織文化上,國務院缺乏金融專業,態度保守,而財政部不但具有專業,同時具備積極的新政態度。三、在作業程序上,國務院事權重疊不一、授權不足;財政部內部事權統一,資訊管道暢通、充足。因而,財政部政策最後出線,成為國家最後的政策。
在政府政治模式方面,本研究發現:一、在參與者的立場上,羅斯福總統在戰時採取國際合作,以維持美國國內就業與海外市場;國務卿赫爾維持自由貿易想法,反對任何的貿易限制與管制;財政部長摩根索與其助手懷特,在許多方面都有羅斯福操控的影子,保護美國自1934年就已獲得的大量黃金儲量的價格與力量;外部反對勢力,主要來自部分國會共和黨議員,主張孤立主義,以及部分的銀行團體,主張政府減少介入國際金融市場。二、決定參與者影響政策結果的因素為:羅斯福喜歡競爭的行政模式,將大決定權保留在總統的手上;赫爾徒有理想,卻無法掌握羅斯福領導風格;摩根索掌握行動管道與議價優勢,可以提出實際有效政策;政府大力宣傳政策、說服民眾,使得反對的外部勢力受到壓抑。
由於羅斯福屬於近代最有影響力的總統之一,而艾里遜的政府政治模式過於輕忽總統在外交決策中的關鍵決定地位,因此在本論文中使用總統決策理論,以補艾里遜理論的不足。在總統決策模式方面,本研究發現:一、在人格特質方面,羅斯福總統屬於積極-肯定型總統,具有強烈的政治功效意識,從其想要聽到的方案中做出選擇。二、在國際金融政策觀點上,羅斯福總統以維護美國國內的經濟發展為首要考量-戰前拒絕國際金融合作,希望美元發展不受限制,以有利於美國經濟從大蕭條中復甦;戰時、戰後主張國際合作,以維持美國經濟發展。三、在領導風格方面,羅斯福總統喜歡競爭的行政模式,他讓國務院與財政部、各相關決策官僚相互競爭,而他成為最後的仲裁者,決定最符合其理念與利益的政策。
在理論驗證上,於本案例中後兩項假設(H2、H3)得到了完全的應證,與艾里遜的理論主張相符,確認、加強了理論通則。在第一項假設(H1)上,美國政府選擇國際貨幣組織計畫方案,雖符合美國國家戰後金融政策目標與利益,但因美國仍需考慮英美之間特殊的關係與國際現勢,而未徹底摧毀大英帝國優惠制度,其選擇未盡符合美國最大利益,驗證結果與假設不盡相符。本論文補充艾里遜決策理論,以總統決策理論提出的假設(H4),在驗證上與本案例雖相符合,但此結果也證明了艾里遜的決策理論在解釋本案例上確有不足之處,需以總統決策模式相輔之,方能完整解釋「美國倡建國際貨幣基金之決策過程」此案例。
綜合上述,本論文的主旨可歸納為:對於戰後國際金融外交政策,羅斯福總統放任政府組織部門與決策官僚相互競合,呈現各項主張與備選方案,並與英國方案競爭,最後做出最符合其理念與美國國內經濟發展利益,同時顧及國際現勢的戰後國際金融外交決策。
英文摘要 The purpose of this dissertation is trying to understand Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) Administration’s postwar international financial policy to initiate International Monetary Fund. This dissertation, with official declassified archives, attempts to give a whole and deep analysis to the case “The U.S.’s Decision-Making Process of Initiating International Monetary Fund” with Graham T. Allison’s Decision-Making Theory and Models. Meanwhile, this dissertation also examined the deficiencies of Allison’s theory on interpreting general cases of the foreign policy decisions, and supplemented it with Presidential Decision-Making Theory to have a complete and thorough understanding of this case.

According to Under Allison’s Decision-Making Theory and Models, this dissertation presented three assumptions: (A) In the Model of Rational Actor, this study set up the hypothesis H1-While the alternative which matches the national interest and objects best and has the feasibility, it will more likely be accepted as the national policy. (B) In the Model of Organizational Behavior, this study set up the hypothesis H2-When an organization with clear and practical stances, with professional and open culture, and with good Stand Operation Processes (SOPs), its policy will more likely be accepted. (C) In the Model of Government Politics, this study sets up the hypothesis H3-While a participant can handle the bargaining advantages best and has close relationship with the President, his policy will more likely be accepted. Moreover, this study adopted the presidential decision-making theory to supplement the insufficiency of Allison’s theory in this case and proposed a fourth hypothesis H4-If the President encourages the open expressions of different views and establishes the diverse communication channels with the President, the President himself will become the key figure in policy formation.

In aspects of rational actor model, the study found that: First, the Roosevelt administration's postwar international monetary policy objectives are: (1) to avoid the collapse of postwar monetary and credit system repeating the mistakes of World War I; (2) to ensure the U.S. trade amount in the world; (3) to restore the confidence and economic development of the U.S. and the world after the World War II (WWII). Second, in accordance with its objectives, the Roosevelt administration had the following alternatives: (1) the free-trade programs proposed by U.S. State Department, (2) the international clearing organization plan proposed by John Maynard Keynes from United Kingdom, (3) the IMF (International Monetary Fund) plan proposed by U.S. Treasury. Third, the United States chose the IMF plan, according to the following several reasons: (1) United States had understood and showed their national strength to promote their own favorable plan. (2) The UK scheme was not in U.S. interests. The Keynes's main concerns were the interests and the financial position of United Kingdom. (3) The IMF plan had the practicality of multilateral organizations, which was acceptable for Britain and in line with U.S. interests.

In aspects of organizational behavior model, this study found that: First, in the organizational objectives, the free-trade policies advocated by State Department did not consider the international reality, while Treasury actually had clear policy objectives which took into account the realities of international diplomacy. Second, in the organizational culture, the State Department, with conservative attitude, lacked the financial professionals; the Treasury was not only professional with financial issues, but also had a positive attitude towards the New Deal. Third, in the operating procedures, State Department varied the overlapping responsibilities, and the officials were lack of full authorization; the Treasury organization had a unified authorization, and its information channels were open and sufficient. Thus, the IMF policy of Treasury was finally adopted as a national policy.

In aspects of governmental politics model, this study found: First, in the position of the participants, in the WWII President Roosevelt adopted international cooperation in order to maintain the employment in the United States and the overseas markets; Secretary of State Cordell Hull maintained his idea of free trade and opposed any trade restrictions and controls; Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau, Jr. and his assistant Harry Dexter White had Roosevelt's shadow in many aspects to protect the U.S. dollars and strength which had acquired a lot of gold reserves since 1934. The external opposition forces mainly came from some Republican members of Congress advocating isolationism, as well as part of the bank groups who advocated the reducing of government intervention in international financial markets. Second, the determinants of decision-making outcomes for participants are: (1) Roosevelt liked the competitive administrative style, remaining the final decision in the hands of the president; (2) Hull only had ideas, but could not handle Roosevelt’s leadership style; (3) Morgenthau could master the action channels and the bargaining advantages, and made the practical and effective policies. (3)The Government vigorously promoted its policies to convince people, having the external forces suppressed.

Since Roosevelt was one of the most influential modern presidents and Allison's bureaucratic politics model overlooked the key status of presidential decisions in foreign policy making, this study adopted presidential decision-making theory to supplement the insufficiency of Allison’s theory. In the presidential decision-making model, this study found that: (1) In terms of personality, President Roosevelt belongs to a positive-active type president, with a strong sense of political efficacy, to make his choice from the programs he wanted. (2) In the perspective of international financial policy, President Roosevelt took the maintaining of U.S. domestic economic development as his primary consideration. Before World War II, he refused the international financial cooperation, and hoped the development of unrestricted dollars to favor the U.S. economic recovery from the Great Depression; however, in wartime and postwar, he advocated the international cooperation to sustain the U.S. economy. (3) In terms of leadership style, President Roosevelt liked the competitive administrative style that allows the competitions among the relevant decision-making bureaucracy, and he became the final arbiter to choose the policy that best met his ideas and interests.

On the theoretical verification of this case, the last two hypotheses on Allison’s models (H2, H3) had got a full verification, confirming and strengthening the Allison’s theory of General. However, on the verification of hypothesis H1, The study found that the U.S. government’s selection of the IMF plan not entirely met the best interests of the United States, even although it was in line with the U.S.’s postwar monetary policy objectives and national interests. U.S. still considered the special relationship between U.S. and Britain, and the world international situations, and not completely destroyed the Britain’s Imperial Preference. This is not totally consistent with the hypothesis H1. Moreover, hypothesis H4 on the presidential decision-making theory had got a full verification. However, this result also proved that Allison’s theory does have the insufficiency in this case, and the need to complement the presidential decision-making model in order to have a complete explanation of this case.

The main theme of this dissertation could be concluded as: FDR encouraged the competitions and the conflicts among the participants and the organizations to provide the alternatives of U.S. postwar international financial policy to compete with the Britain’s proposal, utilized the U.S. national interest, and also gave the consideration to the postwar international situation.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究目的與預期貢獻 5
第二節 文獻探討 8
第三節 研究方法 23
第四節 研究範圍與限制 25
第五節 章節安排 27
第六節 小結 30
第二章 理論架構與命題假設 33
第一節 理性行為模式 35
第二節 組織行為模式 39
第三節 政府政治模式 44
第四節 艾里遜理論之補強-總統決策模式 53
第五節 小結 60
第三章 理性行為模式下羅斯福政府戰後國際金融政策之定位 63
第一節 羅斯福政府的戰後國際金融政策目標 64
第二節 羅斯福政府的備選方案與效益評估 77
第三節 羅斯福政府最後方案的選擇 94
第四節 小結 106
第四章 組織行為模式下國務院與財政部之決策爭辯 109
第一節 組織政策目標 111
第二節 組織文化 119
第三節 作業程序 128
第四節 小結 133
第五章 政府政治模式下羅斯福決策官僚之議價與妥協 137
第一節 參與決策的主要官僚 137
第二節 決策參與者的偏好與立場 142
第三節 決定參與者影響政策結果的因素 152
第四節 小結 170
第六章 總統決策模式下羅斯福總統之決策風格 175
第一節 羅斯福總統的人格特質 175
第二節 羅斯福國際金融政策觀點 179
第三節 羅斯福總統的領導風格 188
第四節 小結 194
第七章 結論 197
參考文獻 208
中文部分 208
(一)專書 208
英文部分 208
(一)官方文件資料庫 208
(二)官方出版品 208
(三)傳記、文書 211
(三)專書 213
(四)學位論文 216
(五)期刊論文 217
(六)專書論文 219
(七)研討會論文 220
(八)報章雜誌 220
附錄1 六大國貨幣對美元匯率數據(1919-1945) 222
附錄2 美國商品進出口數據(1919-1945) 223
附錄3 美國國民收入與貿易數據(1929-1943) 224
附錄4 美國黃金進出口值 (1919-1945) 225
附錄5 黃金價格(1919-1945) 226
附錄6 1945年美國《布列敦森林協議法案》原文 227
圖目錄
圖 1 「兩戰之間」七大國貨幣貶值情形 67
圖 2 六大國貨幣對美元匯率情形(1919-1945) 67
圖 3 「兩戰之間」脫離金本位的主要國家 69
圖 4 歐洲各國簽訂清算協議的數量(1932年與1938年) 71
圖 5 「兩戰之間」世界貿易與外匯貶值情形 72
圖 6 各國1928至1934年佔世界貿易比重的變化 73
圖 7 美國商品進出口值(1919-1945) 74
圖 8 美國國民收入與貿易情形(1929-1943) 76
圖 9 美國黃金進出口值 (1919-1945) 183
圖 10 黃金價格(1919-1945) 183
表目錄
表 1美國倡建國際貨幣基金之假設與檢驗 62
表 2 理性行為模式之假設與驗證 108
表 3 組織行為模式之假設與驗證 134
表 4 政府政治模式之假設與驗證 172
表 5 總統決策模式之假設與驗證 195
表 6 本論文之假設與驗證結果 206
參考文獻 參考文獻
中文部分
(一)專書
陳一新。《斷交後的中美關係》。台北:五南,1995。

英文部分
(一)官方文件資料庫
IMF Archives:
http://www.imf.org/external/adlib_IS4/search.aspx

Federal Reserve Archive (FRASER): http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/advsearch.php

The National Archives, UK (The official archive of the UK government): http://discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/SearchUI/Home/OnlineCollections

(二)官方出版品
Horsefield, John Keith. The International Monetary Fund, 1945-1965: Twenty Years of International Monetary Cooperation, Vol. III. Washington, D.C.: International monetary fund, 1969.
Notter, H. A. Postwar Foreign Policy Preparation, 1939-1945. Washington, D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1949.
Roosevelt, Franklin D. and Samuel Irving Rosenman. The Constitution Prevails, 1937. Vol. 06 of The Public Papers and Addresses of Franklin D. Roosevelt. New York: Macmillan, 1941.
Roosevelt, Franklin D. and Samuel Irving Rosenman. The Tide Turns, 1943. Vol. 12 of The Public Papers and Addresses of Franklin D. Roosevelt. New York: Harper & Bros., 1950.
Roosevelt, Franklin D. and Samuel Irving Rosenman. The Year of Crisis. Vol. 02 of The Public Papers and Addresses of Franklin D. Roosevelt. New York: Random House, 1938.
Roosevelt, Franklin D. and Samuel Irving Rosenman. Victory and the Threshold of Peace. 1944-45 Vol. of The Public Papers and Addresses of Franklin D. Roosevelt. New York: Harper & Bros., 1950.
Roosevelt, Franklin D. The President's Message to Congress- Bretton Woods. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Treasury: United States Government Printing Office, 1942.
U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Ways and Means. Extension of Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act, Hearings on H.J. Res. 407, 76th Cong., 1st sess. (1940), Vol. I.
U.S. Department of State. General, the British Commonwealth, the Far East. Vol. I of Foreign Relations of the United States: Diplomatic Paper, 1942.Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1960.
U.S. Department of State. General. Vol. I of Foreign Relations of the United States: Diplomatic Papers, 1943. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1963.
U.S. Department of State. General. Vol. I of Foreign Relations of the United States: Diplomatic Papers, 1944. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1966.
U.S. Department of State. General: Economic and Social Matters. Vol. II. Foreign Relations of the United States: Diplomatic Papers, 1944. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1967.
U.S. Department of State. Proceedings and Documents of United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, Bretton Woods NH, July 1-22, 1944, Vol. I. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1948.
U.S. Department of State. Proceedings and Documents of United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, Bretton Woods NH, July 1-22, 1944, Vol. II. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1948.
U.S. Department of State. Register of the Department of State 1941. Washington, D. C.: U.S. Department of State, 1941.
U.S. Department of State. The British Commonwealth of Nations, the Near East and Africa. Vol. III of Foreign Relations of the United States: Diplomatic Papers, 1941. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1959.
U.S. Department of State. The British Commonwealth, Eastern Europe, the Far East. Vol. III of Foreign Relations of the United States: Diplomatic Papers, 1943. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1963.
U.S. Department of State. The British Commonwealth, the Far East. Vol. VI. Foreign Relations of the United States: Diplomatic Papers, 1945. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1969.
U.S. Department of State. The State Department Speaks. Washington, D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1944.
U.S. Department of the Treasury. Charts Relating to the Bretton Woods Proposals: The Danger that Restrictive and Discriminatory Currency Practices Will be Resumed and Intensified after the War Makes International Monetary Cooperation Essential. Washington, D. C.: U.S. Treasury, 1945 April 30.
United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, Kurt Schuler and Andrew Rosenberg. The Bretton Woods Transcripts. New York: Center for Financial Stability, 2013.
United States and Library of Congress. Treaties and Other International Agreements: The Role of the United States Senate: a Study. Washington: United States Government Printing Office, 2001.
United States and Richard Peters. The Public Statutes at Large of the United States of America, from the Organization of the Government in 1789, to March 3, 1845. Boston: C.C. Little and J. Brown, 1845.
United States. United States Government Manual 1945. Washington D.C.: The Division of Public Inquiries of the Special Services Bureau of the Office of War Information, 1945.
(三)傳記、文書
Acheson, Dean. Present At the Creation: My Years In the State Department. New York: WW Norton & Co., 1969.
Berle, Adolf Augustus. Navigating the Rapids, 1918-1971: From the Papers of Adolf A. Berle, edited by Berle, Beatrice Bishop, Travis Beal Jacobs. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1973.
Blum, John Morton. From the Morgenthau Diaries: Years of Crisis, 1928-1938. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1959.
Blum, John Morton. From the Morgenthau Diaries: Years of Urgency, 1938-1941. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1965.
Blum, John Morton. From the Morgenthau Diaries: Years of war, 1941-1945. Houghton Mifflin, 1967.
Blum, John Morton. Roosevelt and Morgenthau. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1970.
Coppock, Joseph D. “Oral History Interview with Joseph D. Coppock.” By Richard D. McKinzie at State College, Pennsylvania. July 29, 1974. Harry S. Truman Library. http://www.trumanlibrary.org/oralhist/coppockj.htm.
Eccles, Marriner S. Beckoning Frontiers: Public and Personal Recollections. New York: Knopf, 1951.
Hull, Cordell. The Memoirs of Cordell Hull. New York: Macmillan Co., 1948.
Keynes, John Maynard and Donald Edward Moggridge. Activities 1940-1943, External War Finance. Vol. XXIII of The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes. London: Macmillan [etc.] for the Royal Economic Society, 1979.
Keynes, John Maynard and Donald Edward Moggridge. Activities 1940-1944: Shaping the Post-war World, The Clearing Union. Vol. XXV of The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes. London: Macmillan Cambridge University Press for the Royal Economic Society, 1980.
Keynes, John Maynard and Donald Edward Moggridge. Activities 1941-1946: Shaping the Post-War World, Bretton Woods and Reparations. Vol. XXVI of The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes. London: Macmillan for the Royal Economic Society, 1980.
Mikesell, Raymond Frech. Foreign Adventures of an Economist. University of Oregon Press, 2000.
Mikesell, Raymond Frech. The Bretton Woods Debates: A Memoir. Princeton, N.J.: International Finance Section, Dept. of Economics, Princeton University, 1994.
Morgenthau III, Henry. Mostly Morgenthaus: A Family History. New York: Ticknor & Fields, 1991.
Roosevelt, Franklin D. and Elliott Roosevelt. F.D.R.: His Personal Letters. New York: Duell, Sloan and Pearce, 1950.
Roosevelt, Franklin D. Looking forward. New York: John Day Co., 1933.
Roosevelt, Franklin D. On Our Way. New York: John Day Co., 1933.
Stinebower, Leroy. “Oral History Interview with Leroy Stinebower.” By Richard D. McKinzie at Columbus, North Carolina. June 9, 1974. Harry S. Truman Library. http://www.trumanlibrary.org/oralhist/stinebow.htm.
(三)專書
Allison, Graham T. and Philip Zelikow. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York, Harlow: Longman, 1999.
Barber, James. The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance in the White House. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1972.
Bell, Jack. The Presidency: Office of Power. Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1967.
Block, Fred L. The Origins of International Economic Disorder: A Study of United States International Monetary Policy from World War II to the Present. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1977.
Burns, James MacGregor. Presidential Government: The Crucible of Leadership. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1966.
Crombois, Jean F. Camille Gutt and Postwar International Finance. London: Pickering & Chatto Publishers, Limited, 2011.
Dobson, Alan P. U.S. Wartime Aid to Britain 1940-1946. London: Croom Helm, 1986.
Eckes, Alfred E. A Search for Solvency: Bretton Woods and the International Monetary System, 1941-1971. Austin: University of Texas Press, 1975.
Freidel, Frank. Franklin D. Roosevelt: The Apprenticeship. Boston: Little, Brown, 1952.
Gardner, Richard N. Sterling-Dollar Diplomacy: The Origins and the Prospects of our International Economic Order. New, expa ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969.
George, Alexander L. Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective use of Information and Advice. Boulder: Westview Press, 1980.
Halperin, Morton H., Priscilla Clapp, and Arnold B. Kanter. Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy. Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1974.
Hastedt, Glenn P. Encyclopedia of American Foreign Policy. New York, NY: Facts On File, 2004.
Hilsman, Roger, Laura Gaughran, and Patricia A. Weitsman. The Politics of Policy Making in Defense and Foreign Affairs: Conceptual Models and Bureaucratic Politics. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1993.
Hilsman, Roger. To Move a Nation: The Politics of Foreign Policy in the Administration of John F. Kennedy. Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday, 1967.
Holborn, Louise Wilhelmine. War and Peace Aims of the United Nations: September 1, 1939-December 31, 1942. Boston: World Peace Foundation, 1943.
Huntington, Samuel P. The Common Defense: Strategic Programs in National Politics. New York: Columbia University Press, 1961.
Kantowicz, Edward R. The Rage of Nations. Grand Rapids, Mich.: Eerdmans, 1999.
March, James G. and Herbert Alexander Simon. Organizations. New York: Wiley, 1958.
March, James G., Herbert Alexander Simon, and Harold Steere Guetzkow. Organizations. 2nd ed. Cambridge, Mass.: Blackwell, 1993.
McLellan, David S. Dean Acheson: The State Department Years. New York: Dodd, Mead & Co., 1976.
Morgenthau, Hans J. Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1985.
Neustadt, Richard E. Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents: The Politics of Leadership from Roosevelt to Reagan. New York: Free Press, 1990.
Neustadt, Richard E. Presidential Power, the Politics of Leadership. New York: Wiley, 1960.
Penrose, E. F. Economic Planning for the Peace. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1953.
Reedy, George E. The Twilight of the Presidency. New York: World Pub. Co., 1970.
Rose, Richard. The Postmodern President: George Bush Meets the World. Chatham (N.J.): Chatham House, 1991.
Rubin, Barry M. Secrets of State: The State Department and the Struggle over U.S. Foreign Policy. New York: Oxford University Press, 1985.
Schake, Kori N. State of Disrepair: Fixing the Culture and Practices of the State Department. California: Hoover Institution Press, 2012.
Schelling, Thomas C. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University, 1960.
Schlesinger, Arthur M. The Coming of the New Deal. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1958.
Sherwood, Robert E. Roosevelt and Hopkins, an Intimate History. New York: The Universal Library, 1950.
Smith, Neil. American Empire: Roosevelt's Geographer and the Prelude to Globalization. California: University of California Press, 2004.
Snyder, Glenn Herald and Paul Diesing. Conflict among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure in International Crises. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1977.
Sorensen, Theodore C. Decision-Making in the White House: The Olive Branch Or the Arrows. New York: Columbia University Press, 1963.
Steil, Benn. The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013.
Stevenson, William. A Man Called Intrepid: The Secret War. New York: Lyons Press, 2000.
The University of Chicago Press. The Chicago Manual of Style. , 16th ed. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 2010.
Van Dormael, Armand. Bretton Woods: Birth of a Monetary System. New York: Holmes & Meier Publishers, 1978.
Waltz, Kenneth Neal. Theory of International Politics. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1979.
White, H. Dexter. The French International Accounts, 1880-1913. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1933.
Woods, Randall Bennett. A Changing of the Guard: Anglo-American Relations, 1941-1946. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1990.
Zeiler, Thomas W. Free Trade, Free World: The Advent of the GATT. Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press, 1999.
(四)學位論文
Acsay, Peter Josef. “Planning for Postwar Economic Cooperation: The United States Treasury, the Soviet Union, and Bretton Woods, 1933-1946.” PhD diss., Saint Louis University, 2000.
Chang, Yang-tang. “The Decision-Making Process of the Roosevelt Administration in the Establishment of the Bretton Woods System 1941-1944.” Master’s thesis, Tamkang University, 2011.
Craig, Bruce. "Treasonable Doubt: The Harry Dexter White Case, 1948-1953." PhD diss., The American University, 1999.
Devries, Rick Edwin. "Bankers and Bretton Woods: Origins of Postwar International Monetary Arrangements." PhD diss., University of Notre Dame, 2000.
Schild, Georg Manfred. "Bretton Woods and Dumbarton Oaks: American Post War Planning in the Summer of 1944." PhD diss., University of Maryland College Park, 1993.
Schnurr, Jeremy. "The Best Possible Time for War?’ the USS Panay and American Far Eastern Policy during the Roosevelt Presidency." Master’s thesis, Department of History, Faculty of Arts, University of Ottawa, 2012.
(五)期刊論文
Acheson, Dean. “The Eclipse of the State Department.” Foreign Affairs 49, no. 4 (July 1971): 593-606.
Allison, Graham T. and Morton H. Halperin. "Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and some Policy Implications." World Politics 24, no. Supplement: Theory and Policy in International Relations (Spring 1972): 40-79.
Alsop, Joseph and Robert Kintner. “Henny Penny: Farmer at the Treasury.” Saturday Evening Post 211, no. 40 (Apr. 1939): 8-103.
Art, Robert J. "Bureaucratic Politics and American Foreign Policy: A Critique." Policy Sciences 4, no. 4 (Sept. 1973): 467-90.
Bendor, Jonathan and Thomas H. Hammond. "Rethinking Allison's models." The American Political Science Review 86, no. 2 (June 1992): 301-322.
Boughton, J. M. "American in the Shadows: Harry Dexter White and the Design of the International Monetary Fund." IMF Working Paper 6 (2006).
Garnham, David. “State Department Rigidity: Testing a Psychological Hypothesis.” International Studies Quarterly 18, no. 1 (Mar. 1974): 31-40.
Halperin, Morton H. "The Decision to Deploy the ABM: Bureaucratic and Domestic Politics in the Johnson Administration." World Politics 25, no. 1 (Oct. 1972): 62-95.
Henry, Morgenthau Jr. "Bretton Woods and International Cooperation." Foreign Affairs 23, no. 2 (Jan. 1945): 182-194.
Hilsman, Roger. “The Foreign-Policy Consensus: An Interim Research Report.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution3, no. 4 (Dec. 1959): 361-382.
Krasner, Stephen D. "Are Bureaucracies Important? (Or Allison Wonderland)." Foreign Policy, no. 7 (Summer 1972): 159-179.
Lijphart, Arend. "Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method." The American Political Science Review 65, no. 3 (Sep. 1971): 682-693.
Oye, Kenneth A. "The Sterling-Dollar-Franc Triangle: Monetary Diplomacy 1929–1937.” World Politics 38, no. 1 (Oct.1985): 173-199.
Perimutter, Amos. “The Presidential Political Center and Foreign Policy: A Critique of the Revisionist and Bureaucratic-Political Orientations." World Politics 27, no. 1 (Oct.1974): 87-106
Rosati, Jerel A. "Developing a Systematic Decision-Making Framework: Bureaucratic Politics in Perspective." World Politics 33, no. 2 (Jan. 1981): 234-252.
Simon, Herbert A. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice." The Quarterly Journal of Economics 69, no. 1 (Feb. 1955): 99-118.
Simon, Herbert A. "Rationality in Political Behavior." Political Psychology 16, no. 1, Special Issue: Political Economy and Political Psychology (Mar. 1995): 45-61.
Steiner, Miriam. "The Elusive Essence of Decision: A Critical Comparison of Allison's and Snyder's Decision-Making Approaches." International Studies Quarterly 21, no. 2 (June 1977): 389-422.
White, Harry D. "Postwar Currency Stabilization." The American Economic Review 33, no. 1, Part 2 (Mar. 1943): 382-387.
White, Harry Dexter. "The Monetary Fund: Some Criticisms Examined." Foreign Affairs 23 (Jan. 1945): 195-210.
Wicker, Elmus. "Roosevelt's 1933 Monetary Experiment." The Journal of American History 57, no. 4 (Mar.1971): 864-879.

(六)專書論文
Boughton, J. M. "Why White, Not Keynes? Inventing the Post-War International Monetary System." In The Open Economy Macromodel: Past, Present, and Future, edited by Arie Arnon and Warren Young, 73-96. Norwell: Springer, 2002.
Eckstein, Harry. "Case Study and Theory in Political Science." In Case Study Method, edited by Roger Gomm, Martyn Hammersley and Peter Foster, 119-164. Longon: SAGE Publications, 2000.
Fortas, Abe. "The Douglas-Fortas Odyssey." In The Making of the New Deal: The Insiders Speak, edited by Katie Louchheim, 219-226. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1983.
Greenstein, Fred I. "Introduction: Toward a Modern Presidency." In Leadership in the Modern Presidency, edited by Fred I. Greenstein, 1-6. London: Harvard University Press, 1988.
Halperin, Morton H. and Arnold Kanter. "The Bureaucratic Perspective: A Preliminary Framework," In Readings in American Foreign Policy, edited by Morton H. Halperin and Arnold Kanter, 1-42. Boston: Little, Brown, 1973.
Ikenberrry, G. John. “The Political Origins of Bretton Woods,” In A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System, edited by Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 155-197. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1993.
Leuchtenburg, William E. "Franklin D. Roosevelt: The First Modern President." In Leadership in the Modern Presidency, edited by Fred I. Greenstein, 7-40. London: Harvard University Press, 1988.
Neustadt, Richard E. "White House and Whitehall." In Readings in American Foreign Policy, edited by Morton H. Halperin and Arnold Kanter, 387-401. Boston: Little, Brown, 1973.
Porter, Rober B. "Gerald R. Ford: A Healing Presidency." In Leadership in the Modern Presidency, edited by Fred I. Greenstein, 199-227. London: Harvard University Press, 1988.
Preston, Thomas. "Following the Leader: The Impact of U.S. Presidential Style upon Advisory Group Dynamics, Structure, and Decision." In Beyond Groupthink: Group Decision Making in Foreign Policy, edited by Sundelius, Bengst, Paul't Hart and Eric Stern, 191-248. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1997.
(七)研討會論文
Chen, Edward I-Hsin “The Decision-Making Process in the Creation of the IMF” Paper presented at The International Academic Conference on Cognizable Citizenship: The Ideals and Practice of Democracy; The Annual Conference of the Chinese Association of Political Science, NSYU, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, ROC, Sept. 6-7, 2010.
(八)報章雜誌
Hull, Cordell. “Address opening the Fourth Liberty Loan Drive.” The New York Times. Sept. 28, 1918.
Lawrence, David. “The Bretton Woods Plan.” The Evening Independent. Mar. 19, 1945.
Morgenthau, Henry Jr. “Letter to President Truman.” Quoted in The New York Herald-Tribune. Mar. 31, 1946. 
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