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系統識別號 U0002-2006201122544200
中文論文名稱 羅斯福政府在創建布列敦森林體系決策過程之研究(1941-1944)
英文論文名稱 The Decision-Making Process of the Roosevelt Administration in the Establishment of the Bretton Woods System 1941-1944
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 美洲研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Master's Program, Graduate Institute of the Americas
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生中文姓名 張雅堂
研究生英文姓名 Yang-tang Chang
學號 698250064
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
第二語文別 中文
口試日期 2011-06-03
論文頁數 123頁
口試委員 指導教授-陳一新
委員-李登科
委員-科大衛
中文關鍵字 羅斯福政府  決策理論  布列敦森林體系 
英文關鍵字 Roosevelt Administration  Decision-Making Theory  Bretton Woods 
學科別分類
中文摘要 1944年二戰結束前的夏天,為處理戰後經濟與財務危機,44個同盟國代表團在美國新罕布夏州,布列敦森林召開聯合國貨幣金融會議。羅斯福政府領導盟國共同成立國際貨幣基金組織 (IMF) 以及國際復興開發銀行 (IBRD),爾後稱之為布列敦森林體系。由於世界黃金產量不足以支撐國際金融體系中不斷增長的貨幣流量,兩個國際金融組織提供了黃金與美元之間的固定匯率。美國政府並保證以每1美元換取35盎司黃金,促使美元成為戰後的國際儲備貨幣。

本論文採用學者艾里遜所提出的決策模式理論,即「理性行為模式」、「組織行為模式」以及「政府政治模式」作為理論架構。以此分析羅斯福政府在布列敦森林體系之決策過程中與盟國之間的互動、美國的利益考量、組織部門的文化與能力、以及官僚的議價過程。

在理性模式中,羅斯福政府拒絕英國凱因斯爵士所提出的國際清算聯盟 (ICU)和其他盟國提議的計畫,而堅持以國際貨幣基金與國際復興開發銀行來穩定戰後國際經濟金融體系。在組織模式中,國務院與財政部為爭奪經濟與金融政策的領導權而互別苗頭。國務院因本身組織文化就不擅長金融事務,使羅斯福總統較為信任財政部,因該部門經常處理金融事務及擁有較多的金融專家。在政府政治模式中,財政部長摩根索掌握了主導權。羅斯福總統在從政前與財長摩根索即為家族好友,摩根索並常與總統在私底下討論國家政策。反之,國務卿赫爾只是羅斯福總統所指派的政府官員。此外,摩根索的特別助理懷特所繪製的戰後經濟金融藍圖深受羅斯福總統的青睞。

因此,經由以上三種決策模式之分系,本論文的主旨為,羅斯福政府為穩定戰後國際經濟金融體系進而建立了以美國為主的布列敦森林體系,符合其國家利益。財政部的組織文化與能力較國務院更能領導金融政策,以及財長摩根索與羅斯福總統個人關係良好,使財政部在布列敦森林體系的決策過程中擁有完全的主導權。
英文摘要 In the summer of 1944, while World War II was still raging through Europe, forty-four Allied nations assembled at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, United States, to reconstruct a postwar international economic and financial system. The Roosevelt administration played a critical role in leading the conference to establish an International Monetary Fund (IMF) and an International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). The institutions of the Bretton Woods System provided a fixed relationship between U.S. dollar and gold. Since the gold production was insufficient to meet the demands of growing liquidity of international money flow, the dollar was the only existing currency strong enough to face the challenge. With the U.S. government converting one dollar into gold at $35 an ounce, the U.S. dollar became the postwar reserve currency.

By applying Graham T. Allison’s three decision-making models, namely, Rational Actor Model (RAM), Organizational Behavior Model (OBM), and Governmental Politics Model (GPM), this thesis aims at exploring the decision-making processes of the Roosevelt administration in the formation of the Bretton Woods System during the period from 1941 to 1944.

From the perspective of RAM, the United States rejected the International Clearing Union proposed by Lord John Maynard Keynes of Great Britain and other plans proposed by their allies, and thereby urged the establishment of the International Stabilization Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development to promote economic and financial stability and free trade around the world. From the perspective of OBM, warfare broke out between the Department of Treasury and Department of State because both agencies tried to gain more influence over each other. Eventually the Department of Treasury won the battle because it had more financial experts and more exercise in the field, whereas the Department of State did not have much of experience in making monetary and financial policies. From the perspective of GPM, FDR agreed with Henry Morgenthau Jr., the Secretary of Treasury, more than Cordell Hull, Secretary of State, because the Secretary Morgenthau had a highly specialized economist Harry Dexter White who drafted the blueprint for the two postwar international agencies. In addition, Morgenthau was a close family friend to FDR; hence he held an informal access channel to the President. As a result, Secretary Hull was literally incompatible with Secretary Morgenthau.

In sum, the application of the three decision-making models serves to explain the underlying theme of the thesis; the United States gained economic dominance in the postwar era by leading the establishment of the Bretton Woods system; the Department of Treasury gained the upper hand over Department of State due to its organizational culture and capability; and the Treasury Secretary, Henry Morgenthau Jr., was more involved than the Secretary of State, Cordell Hull, because he had a better access channel to the President.
論文目次 Contents

Chapter One Introduction 1
1.1 Main Purpose and Main Theme 1
1.2 Literature Review 4
1.3 Methodology 9
1.4 Scope and Limitation 12
1.5 Outline of Chapters 15
Chapter Two Theories and Hypotheses 19
2.1 Rational Actor Model (RAM) 19
2.2 Organizational Behavior Model (OBM) 23
2.3 Governmental Politics Model (GPM) 27
2.4 Summary 31
Chapter Three Rational Actor Model 33
3.1 Lend-Lease and British Imperial Preferences 33
3.2 Fighting for Leadership 43
3.3 A New Economic and Monetary Order 52
3.4 Summary 65
Chapter Four Organizational Behavior Model 71
4.1 Department of State 72
4.2 Department of Treasury 77
4.3 Summary 90
Chapter Five Governmental Politics Model 93
5.1 Cordell Hull and the State Officials 94
5.2 Henry Morgenthau Jr. and the Treasury Officials 101
5.3 Summary 108
Chapter Six Conclusion 110
Preferences 119
參考文獻 References

Published Official Documents

U.S. Department of State. Foreign Relations of the United States, Diplomatic Papers, General; the British Commonwealth of Nations; the Near East and Africa: 1941 Vol. 3. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1941.
-----Foreign Relations of the United States, Diplomatic Papers, General; the British Commonwealth; the Far East: 1942 Vol. 1. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1942.
-----Foreign Relations of the United States, Diplomatic Papers, General: 1943 Vol. 1, Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1943.
-----Foreign Relations of the United States, Diplomatic Papers, General: 1944 Vol. 1, Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1944.
-----Foreign Relations of the United States, Diplomatic Papers, General economic and social matters: 1944 Vol. 1, Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1944.
-----Proceedings and documents of the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, 1944, 2 Vols, Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1948.


Books

Acheson, Dean. Present At The Creation: My Years In The State Department, New York: W. W. Norton & Company Inc., 1948.
Allison, Graham T. Essence of Decision, Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1971.
Allison, Graham T. & Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision, New York: Addison Wesley Longman, 1999.
Barber, James D. The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance in the White House, Englewood Cliff, N.J.: Prentice-Hall Inc., 1972.
Block, Fred L. The Origins of International Economic Disorder: a Study of United States International Monetary Policy from World War II to the Present, Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1977.
Blum, John M. From the Morgenthau Diaries, 3 Vols, Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1965.
Blum, John M. Roosevelt and Morgenthau: A Revision and Condensation of from the Morgenthau Diaries, Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1970.
Bordo, Michael D. & Barry Eichengreen, A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993.
Browder, Robert P. Origins of Soviet-American Diplomacy, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985.
Cesarano, Filippo. Monetary Theory and Bretton Woods, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006.
Eccles, Marriner S. Beckoning Frontiers: Public and Personal Recollections, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1951.
Flandreau, Marc with Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich & Harold James. International Financial History in the Twentieth Century: System and Anarchy, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
Halperin, Morton H. Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy, Washington D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1974.
Hirschman, Albert O. National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade, London: University of California Press, 1945.
Keith J. Horsefield, The International Monetary Fund, 1945–1965: Twenty Years of International Monetary Cooperation, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, Vol. 3, 1969.
Frey, Bruno S. International Political Economics, New York: Basil Blackwell, 1984.
Frieden, Jeffry A. Global Capitalism: Its Fall and Rise in the Twentieth Century, New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2007.
Moggridge, Donald. The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes: Activities 1940-1944, Shaping the Postwar World – The Clearing Union, New York: Royal Economic Society, 1980.
Neustadt, Richard E. Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents: The Politics of Leadership from Roosevelt to Reagan, 5th ed., New York: Free Press, 1990.
Herbert, Simon A. Administrative Behavior: A Study of Decision-Making Processes in Administrative Organizations, 4th ed., New York: The Free Press, 1997.
Hudson, Michael. Super Imperialism: the Origin and Fundamentals of U.S. World Dominance, London: Pluto Press, 2003.
Hull, Cordell. The Memoirs of Cordell Hull, 2 Vols, New York: Macmillan Co., 1948.
McCagg, William O. Stalin Embattled 1943-1948, Detroit: Wayne State University Press, 1978.
Morgenthau, Hans J. Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 5th ed., New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1978.
Rubin, Barry Secrets of State: The State Department and the Struggle over U.S. Foreign Policy, New York: Oxford University Press, 1985.
Schelling, Thomas C. The Strategy of Conflict, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1981.
Snyder, Glenn H. & Paul Diesing. Conflict among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure in International Crises, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1977.

Articles and Periodicals

Bordo, Michael D. “The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: An Historical Overview.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers Series, No. 4033, March 1992.
Chen, I-hsin. “The Decision-Making Process in the Origin of Bretton Woods System.” The Annual Conference of the Association of International Relations [Conference]. Taipei, National Cheng-Chi University, June 2010.
Emerson, Rupert & Inis L. Claude, Jr, “The Soviet Union and the United Nations: An Essay in Interpretation.” International Organization, Vol. 6, No. 1, February 1952.
Kimball, Warren F. “Lend-Lease and the Open Door: The Temptation of British Opulence, 1937-1942.” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 86, No. 2, June 1971.
Kindleberger, Charles P. “The Functioning of Financial Centers: Britain in the Nineteenth Century, The United States Since 1945.” Markets and Capital Movements, New York: Princeton University Press, 1985.
Kung, H.H. “China’s Financial Problems.” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 23, No. 2, January 1945.
Lijphart, Arend. “Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method.” American Political Science Review, Vol. 65, No. 3, September 1971.

Internet

Roosevelt, Franklin D. “FDR’s 16th Fireside Chat, Arsenal of Democracy.” Emerson Kent, December 1940. arsenal_of_democracy.htm>.
“Annual Time Series on World Official Gold Reserves Since 1845.” World Gold Council. .
Welles, Sumner. “Memorial Day Address at the Arlington National Amphitheater.” The Public's Library and Digital Archive, May 1942. www.ibiblio.org/pha/policy/1942/420530a.html>.
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