論文提要內容：

    本文以台灣地區為研究對象，探討不同出口產業對其經濟成長的貢獻。在研究期間，台灣主要出口產業分別為化學業、紡織業、塑（橡）膠製品業及機械電子產業。

    本研究利用聯立方程模型及1972到2003年這一段期間的統計資料，進行實證分析，模型包含了增列出口之Cobb-Douglas生產函數、出口需求與出口供給三個主要方程式。分別以普通最小平方法（OLS）、二階段最小平方法（2SLS）、三階段最小平方法(3SLS)估計上述方程式。

本研究結果發現：最基礎的生產投入-勞動與資本，對於經濟成長皆呈現正向且顯著的貢獻。各個產業對經濟成長的貢獻依不同經濟發展階段而有所不同。八十年代後，政府致力發展的高科技產業，在整個研究期間對於經濟成長的貢獻凌駕其他產業。

Abstract 

    This thesis estimates the contributions of the export of four mainstream industries, namely, the chemistry, the textile, the plastic & rubber manufacturing and the mechanics and electronics industries, to Taiwan’s economic growth. 

    The empirical equations consists of an augmented production function which has incorporated the export of the four industries in addition to labors and capitals as input, and one equation representing the export demand and one representing the export supply are combined to form a simultaneous equation system. By using annual data covering the period between 1972 and 2003 to estimate the simultaneous equations, we adopt three estimation techniques-ordinary least squares（OLS）, two-stage least squares methods（2SLS）, three-stage least squares methods（3SLS）, respectively.

   The estimated results have shown that labor and capital contributes significantly toward economic growth during the entire period, while the contributions of the four industries varies depending on the stage of the economic development. The more recent emphasis on the mechanics and electronics industries outperformed the other four industries in the study in contributing economic growth.

目   錄
目錄	…………………………………………………………	i.	
表目錄	…………………………………………………………	ii.	
圖目錄	…………………………………………………………	iii.	

第一章	緒論	
第一節	台灣經濟發展歷程  …………………………………	1
第二節	研究動機和目的  ……………………………………	3
第三節	研究架構  ……………………………………………	5

第二章	文獻回顧	
第一節	理論上出口與經濟成長的關係 ………………………	7
第二節	實證研究結果  ………………………………………	14
第三節	實證研究方法簡述  …………………………………	25
第四節	本文研究方法  ………………………………………	28

第三章	實證模型與方法	
第一節	實證模型  ……………………………………………	29
第二節	實證方法  ……………………………………………	34

第四章	實證估計與結果	
第一節	資料來源與說明  ……………………………………	42
第二節	實證估計結果  ………………………………………	53
第三節	總結估計結果  ………………………………………	68

第五章	結論	70
參考文獻	…………………………………………………………	74

表目錄

表一	出口與經濟成長之實證研究結果彙整表  …………	20
表二	各變數基本統計量表  ………………………………	45
表三	各變數變動率之基本統計量表（2） ………………	46
表四	台灣地區總生產函數實證估計結果  ………………	55
表五	化學產業出口需求與供給方程式實證估計結果 ……	57
表六	塑、橡膠製品業實證估計結果 ………………………	60
表七	紡織業出口需求與供給方程式實證估計結果 ………	62
表八	機械電子業出口需求與供給方程式實證估計結果 …	64
表九	其他產業出口需求與供給方程式實證估計結果 ……	66

圖目錄

圖一	化學產業出口比重趨勢圖  ………………………	47
圖二	塑、橡膠製品產業出口比重趨勢圖  ……………….	48
圖三	紡織產業出口比重趨勢圖  ………………………….	49
圖四	機械電子產業出口比重趨勢圖  …………………….	50
圖五	其他產業出口比重趨勢圖  ………………………….	51
圖六	各產業出口占GDP比重圖  ……………………………	52

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