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中文論文名稱 總體經濟對台灣地區上市(櫃)家數影響之探討─平滑移轉自我迴歸模型之應用
英文論文名稱 The study on the impact of macroeconomic environment to IPOs volumes-application of smooth transition autoregressive model
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際貿易學系國際企業學碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of International Trade
學年度 96
學期 1
出版年 97
研究生中文姓名 盧韻如
研究生英文姓名 Yun-Ju Lu
學號 694481135
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2008-01-18
論文頁數 36頁
口試委員 指導教授-聶建中
共同指導教授-蔡正言
委員-聶建中
委員-薛琦
委員-杜化宇
委員-蔡政言
委員-楊朝成
中文關鍵字 上市(櫃)  平滑移轉自我迴歸 
英文關鍵字 Initial public offerings  smooth transition autoregressive model 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學商學
中文摘要 本文使用台灣加權股價指數、重貼現率及國內生產毛額作為代表市場環境之變數,並採取非線性之平滑移轉自我迴歸模型以探討歷年來IPOs家數與市場環境之關連性。過去實證研究多以線性之模型作為研究方法,然而時間序列資料在長期可能存在結構性的轉變而不被傳統線性模型所涵蓋,故本文嘗試以非線性之平滑移轉自我迴歸方法,來探討上述幾項國內總體經濟變數對IPOs家數之影響,並了解是否存在異質平滑移轉之現象。
實證結果發現,國內IPOs家數的確存在結構性轉變之現象。而上述三項總體經濟因素中,僅國內生產毛額及利率對IPOs家數有明顯的影響。在國內生產毛額變動率作為轉換變數的情況下,國內生產毛額及利率之落後期於門檻值前後的確有產生不同方向的結構性轉變。落後1、2期之國內生產毛額變動率及落後4期的利率變動率的影響減弱,而落後3、4期之國內生產毛額之影響則是增強。
英文摘要 This article adopted Taiwan stock index, discount rate and GDP as representative variables of market environment. It also used nonlinear smooth autoregressive model to research connections between IPOs volumes and market environment over the years. Over the past, what has been used often was looking into linear model as the research template; it is however, that time series data in the long term could cause possible structural transformation without being covered by traditional linear model. Therefore, this article will focused on using nonlinear smooth autoregressive model to attest the effect of the above variables toward IPOs volumes and at the same time testifying whether there is the existence of heterogeneity smooth transition phenomena.
The final result turned out to be that there is the existence of structural transformation within our IPOs volumes. Among those three variables mentioned above, only GDP and discount rate cause major effect toward IPOs volumes. Under the condition of using GDP as transition variables, the lag of GDP and discount rate did contribute diverse structural transformation.
論文目次 第一章 緒論
第一節 研究動機與目的………………………………………………1
第二節 研究架構………………………………………………………4
第二章 文獻回顧
第一節 理論基礎與文獻探討…………………………………………5
第二節 上市(櫃)條件及流程………………………………………9
第三章 研究方法
第一節 單根檢定…...…….……………………………………..15
第二節 線性檢定………………...………………………………..17
第四章 實證分析
第一節 資料選取與來源……………………………………….....23
第二節 單根檢定……………………………..…………………..24
第三節 模型估計與檢定………………………………………....26
第五章 結論………………………………………..……………..33
參考文獻…………………………………………………………...34

圖目錄
圖1-1 研究流程架構圖…………………………………………………………4
圖2-1 我國公開發行公司上市(櫃)流程圖……………………….14

表目錄
表2-1 上市條件………………………………………………….10
表2-2 上櫃條件………………………………………………….12
表4-1 單根檢定(水準項)………………………………………….24
表4-2 單根檢定(一階差分項)………………………………..25
表4-3 線性模型估計結果…………………………………………..27
表4-4 遞延期數d之選擇………………………………………..28
表4-5 LSTAR與ESTAR模型之選擇………………………………………29
表4-6 非線性LSTAR模型估計結果………………………….31
表4-7 轉換函數對各控制變數的影響轉變……………………….32
參考文獻 吳桂燕(2006),「新上市時機與異常報酬之關聯性」,交大管理學報,第二十六卷第一期。

范譯仁(2001),「首次公開上市家數與上市市場環境互動關係之研究」,朝陽科技大學財務金融所碩士論文。

秦家騏(2002),「公開發行公司上市櫃決策分析」,元智大學財金學系研究所碩士論文。

Amihud, Y. and Mendelson, H., 1998. “Liquidity and Assets Price: Financial Management Implications.” Financial Management, 17: 5-15.

Baker, M. and Wurgler J., 2000. “The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns.” Journal of Finance, 5: 2219-2257.

Barry, C. B. Muscarella, C. J. and Vetsuypens, M. R., 1990. Underwriter Warrants, Underwriter Compensation and the Cost of Going Public. Journal of Financial Economics, 29: 113-135.

Benninga, S., Helmantel, M. and Sarig, O., 2005. “The Timing of Initial Public Offerings.” Journal of Financial Economics, 75: 115-132.

Bolton, P., and von Thadden, E. V., 1998. “Blocks, Liquidity, and Corporate Control.” Journal of Finance. 53: 1-26.

Gompers, P., 1996. “Grandstanding in the Venture Capital Industry.” Journal of Financial Economics, 42: 133-156.

Granger, C. and Newbold, P., 1974, “Spurious Regression in Econometrics.” Journal of Econometrics, 39: 199-211.

Granger, C. W. J. and Teräsvirta, T., 1993. “Modeling Nonlinear Economic Relationships.” Oxford University Press.

Holmstrom, B. and Tirole, J. 1993. “Market Liquidity and Performance Monitoring.” Journal of Political Economy, 101: 678-709.

Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y. and Snell, A., 2003. “Testing of a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework.” Journal of Econometrics, 112: 359-379.

Kwiatkowski, D., Philips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y., 1992. “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure are We that Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?” Journal of Econometrics, 54: 159-178.

Lerner, J., 1994. “Venture Capitalists and the Decision to Go Public.” Journal of Financial Economics, 35: 293-316.

Loughran, T., Ritter, J. R. and Rydqvist, K., 1994. “Initial Public Offerings: International Insights.” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2: 165-199.

Lowery, M. and Schwert, G. W., 2002. “IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?” Journal of Finance, 57: 1171-1200.

Othman, Y., 2007. “A Review of IPO Research in Asia: What’s Next?” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 15: 253-275.

Pagano, M., 1993. “The Flotation of Companies on the Stock Market: A Coordination Failure Model.” European Economic Review, 37: 1101-1125.

Pagano, M., Panetta, F. and Zingales, L., 1998. “Why Do Companies Go Public? An Empirical Analysis.” Journal of Finance, 53: 27-64.

Phillips, P. C.B. and Perron, P., 1988, “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,” Biometrika, 75, 335-346.

Ritter, J. R., 1984. “The Hot Issue Market of 1980.” Journal of Business, 32: 215-240.

Subrahmanyam, A. and Titman, S., 1999. “The Going Public Decision and the Development of Financial Markets.” The Journal of Finance, 3: 1045-1077.

Teräsvirta, T., 1994. “Specification, Estimation and Evaluation of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89: 208-218.

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