淡江大學覺生紀念圖書館 (TKU Library)

系統識別號 U0002-1907201609190200
中文論文名稱 冷戰後俄羅斯的航空防禦:理論與實證
英文論文名稱 The Russian Approach to Air and Space Defense in the Post-Cold War Era: Theory and Practice
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
學年度 104
學期 2
出版年 105
研究生中文姓名 柏司基
研究生英文姓名 Guy Plopsky
電子信箱 isrguy1990@gmail.com
學號 603330308
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2016-06-07
論文頁數 149頁
口試委員 指導教授-王高成
中文關鍵字 航空  空權  俄羅斯軍隊  卸(解)除武裝攻擊  精確制導武器 
英文關鍵字 Aerospace Defense  Russian Military  Disarming Strike  Precision-guided Weapons  Air Power 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學政治學
中文摘要 本論文由理論與實務角度探討評估俄羅斯在後冷戰時期的航太防禦策略,並由此望能提供對於俄羅斯視航太領域為該國國安主要威脅的見解;這些威脅如何改變俄羅斯軍隊對於航太防禦的想法;俄羅斯如何因應這些威脅;以及俄羅斯如何達成其防禦目的。本論文以地緣政治取向分析並汲取大量相關文獻,文獻資料從各式官方文件、俄羅斯軍方及民間出版品、到著名西方分析專家們的相關研究著作均將之網羅。本研究的主要動機為日漸緊張的俄羅斯與西方關係,以及俄羅斯現時對於航太防禦議題討論熱衷的現象。從冷戰後時期開始,蘇聯(後來的俄羅斯)軍方與政府就一直對於美國與北約組織精準打擊系統的發展與在戰場上的運用有著密切的注意。俄羅斯領導階層一再重申此精準打擊系統將使得俄羅斯聯邦的策略性核武對於解除武裝攻擊難以招架,低估了其戰略穩定性的擔憂。此外,俄羅斯也對遠東對手兵力投射範圍日益增大及蠻橫政權未合規範的彈道飛彈形成的空中恐怖主義有所顧慮。基於以上的安全疑慮,航太防禦被視為戰略穩定的主要關鍵因素。大量資金被挹注於對稱與非對稱航太防禦能力的領域之中。然而,俄羅斯仍持續缺乏對於航太防禦領域的一貫性作法。當前俄羅斯大量軍力、經濟、及政府共同努力抵禦現存範圍廣大威脅的作法不僅耗費昂貴,且防禦方法並非源於對自身能力與可能對手之間的實際評估。俄羅斯必須重新評估並架構自身的航太防禦武力,並改進解決使致開發新系統有所難度以及進度遲緩的現有技術障礙。
英文摘要 This dissertation explores and evaluates both the theoretical and practical aspects of Russia’s post-Cold War approach to air and space defense, aiming to provide further insight as to what Russia perceives to be the primary threats to its national security from air and from space; how have these threats transformed the role of air and space defense in Russian military thinking; what has been Russia’s approach to countering these threats; and how well has Russia implemented this approach. The dissertation employs a geostrategic analytical approach and draws on an extensive list of sources, including official documents, publications by both Russian military and civilian experts, and previous works on the subject matter by leading Western analysts. Key motives for this study are the rising tensions between Russia and the West, and the extensive attention that the topic of air and space defense receives in contemporary Russian security discussions. Since the late Cold War period, the Soviet, and later Russian, military and political establishment has kept close watch on developments in US and NATO precision-strike systems and their employment in battle. Russia’s leadership has repeatedly voiced concerns that these systems undermine strategic stability by leaving the Russian Federation’s strategic nuclear forces vulnerable to a potential disarming strike. Of additional concern to Russia is the threat of aerial terrorism, the growing power projection capabilities of its geopolitical rivals in the Far East, and the unsanctioned launch of ballistic missiles by rogue regimes. As a result of these security concerns, air and space defense has come to be perceived as a key element of strategic stability. Large amounts of funds are being invested into both symmetric and asymmetric air and space defense capabilities. Yet, Russia continues to lack a coherent approach to air and space defense; the current approach, which calls for the defense of numerous military, economic and administrative targets across Russia against a wide-range of existing and emerging threats, is both prohibitively expensive and is not based on a realistic assessment of both Russia’s own capabilities and that of its potential adversaries. Russia must therefore reevaluate the force posture of its forces tasked with air and space defense, as well as resolve ongoing technical issues which continue to complicate and delay the development and introduction of new systems.
論文目次 List of Figures and Tables vi
Acronyms vii
Chapter 1: Introduction 1
1.1 Research Motivation and Questions 2
1.2 Literature Review 3
1.21 Threat Perception and Theoretical View 4
1.22 Practical Implementation of Theory 13
1.3 Methodology 17
1.31 Research Approach 17
1.32 Research Method 23
1.4 Hypothesis 25
1.5 Conceptual Framework 26
1.6 Research Limitations 27
Chapter 2: Russian Observations on the Evolution of Aerial Warfare 28
2.1 Desert Storm and the Revolution in Military Affairs 29
2.2 Non-contact Warfare and the Growing Role Precision-Strike Systems 33
2.3 From Air Defense to Aerospace Defense 42
Chapter 3: Aerospace Defense and Russian National Security 48
3.1 Aerospace Defense as an Increasingly Important Element of Strategic Stability 49
3.2 Existing and Emerging US Conventional Counterforce Capabilities 63
Chapter 4: Russian Aerospace Defense Force Modernization and Ongoing Organizational Reforms 75
4.1 The Debate over the Organizational Structure of Russia’s Aerospace Defense System and Forces 76
4.2 Means of Aerospace Defense: Capabilities, Challenges and Recent Developments 96
4.21 Automated Control Systems 96
4.22 Long-range SAM and ABM Systems 99
4.23 Medium and Short-range SAM Systems 107
4.24 Fighter Aircraft 109
4.25 Early Warning Radars 111
4.26 Electronic Warfare Systems 115
Chapter 5: Conclusion 118
5.1 Research Findings 119
5.2 Projections 123
Bibliography 125

List of Figures and Tables
Figure 1-1: Lykke’s Model………………………………………………………………….…..18
Figure 1-2: Theoretical Framework………………………………………………………….…26
Figure 2-1: Guided Munitions as a Percentage of Total Munitions Employed in US-led and
Israeli Military Operations……………………………………………………………………...38
Table 3-1: US Military’s Cruise Missile Inventory…………………………………………….50
Figure 3-1: Percentage of Total Funds Allocated to Each Arm/Branch of the Armed Forces
Under SAP 2020………………………………………………………………………………..57
Table 4-1: Air and Missile Defense Army’s (former Air and Missile Defense Command) Longrange
SAM Systems…………………………………………………………………………….84
Figure 4-1: Deployment Locations of Russia’s Strategic Nuclear Forces and Long-range SAM
參考文獻 Official Documents and Publications
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“Taktika” [Tactics]. Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Accessed June 11, 2015. http://encyclopedia.mil.ru/encyclopedia/dictionary/details.htm?id=14078@morfDictionary.
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Books and Book Chapters
Arbatov, Alexei. “Strategic offensive conventional weapons.” In Russia and the Dilemmas of Nuclear Disarmament. Edited by Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin and Sergey Oznnobishchev, 72-81. Moscow: IMEMO RAN, 2012.
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Byman, Daniel and Matthew Waxman. The Dynamics of Coercion: American Foreign Policy and the Limits of Military Might. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002.
Cimbala, Stephen J. Nuclear Weapons in the Information Age. London: Continuum International Publishing Group, 2012.
Clausewitz, von Carl. On War. Translated and Edited by Michael Howard and Peter Paret. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984.
Esin, Viktor. “Russia’s Air-Space Force and Armaments Program.” In Missile Defense: Cooperation and Confrontation. Edited by Alexei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin, 147-166. Moscow: Moscow Carnegie Center, 2013.
FitzGerald, Mary C. The Soviet Image of Future War: The Impact of Desert Storm.” In Soviet Military Doctrine from Lenin to Gorbachev, 1915-1991. Edited by William C. Frank Jr. and Philip S. Gillette, 363-385. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992.
Giles, Keir. “Military transformation in Russia.” In The Evolution of Military Power in the West and Asia: Security policy in the post-Cold War era. Edited by Pauline Eadie and Wyn Rees, 96-116. New York: Routledge, 2016.
Glansler, Jacques S. and William Lucyshyn. “Allocating national security resources.” In Military Cost-benefit Analysis Theory and Practice. Edited by Francois Melese, Anke Richter and Binyam Solomon, 18-35. New York: Routledge, 2015.
Glantz, David M. The Military Strategy of the Soviet Union: A History. London: Frank Cass, 1992.
Herspring, Dale R. The Soviet High Command: 1967-1989: Personalities and Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990.
Holst, Fredrik A. Holst and Martin D. Fink. “A legal view on NATO’s campaign in Libya.” In The NATO Intervention in Libya: Lessons Learned from the Campaign. Edited by Kjell Engelbrekt, Marcus Mohlin and Charlotte Wagnsson, 63-100. New York: Routledge, 2014.
International Institute for Strategic Studies. The Military Balance 2016. New York: Routledge, 2016.
Jamieson, Perry D. Lucrative Targets: The U.S. Air Force in the Kuwaiti Theater of Operations. Washington, DC: Air Force History and Museums Program, US Air Force, 2001.
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Lambeth, Benjamin S. The Unseen War: Allied Air Power and the Takedown of Saddam Hussein. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2013.
Lavrov, Anton Lavrov. “Reforms of the Russian Air Force.” In Russia’s New Army. Edited by Mikhail Barabanov, 51-79. Moscow: Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technology, 2011).
Lilly, Bilyana. Russian Foreign Policy Toward Missile Defense: Actors, Motivations, and Influence. London: Lexington Books, 2014.
Lyashenko, Vladimir P. Vozdushno-kosmicheskaya oborona gosudarstva. Sovremennyy etap I perspektivy razvitiya [Aerospace Defense of the State: Contemporary Status and Prospects of Development]. Moscow: Ekonomika, 2015.
Mason, R. A. and John W. R. Taylor. Aircraft, Strategy and Operations of the Soviet Air Force. London: Jane’s, 1986.
McDermott, Roger N. “Network-centric warfare as the undeclared aim of Russian defense reform: Russian perspectives and challenges.” In The Russian Armed Forces in Transition: Economic, geopolitical and institutional uncertainties. Edited by Roger N. McDermott, Bertil Nygren, and Carolina Vendil Pallin, 49-68. New York: Routledge, 2012.
Miasnikov, Eugene. “Precision-Guided Conventional Weapons.” In Nuclear Reset: Arms Reduction and Nonproliferation. Edited by Alexei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin, 432-456. Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center, 2012.
Miasnikov, Eugene. “The Air-Space Threat to Russia.” In Missile Defense: Cooperation and Confrontation. Edited by Alexei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin, 121-146. Moscow: Moscow Carnegie Center, 2013.
Miasnikov, Eugene. “The Counterforce Potential of Precision-Guided Munitions.” In Nuclear Proliferation: New Technologies, Weapons, Treaties. Edited by Alexei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin, 84-103. Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center, 2009.
Mohlin, Marcus. “Cloak and dagger in Libya: the Libyan Thuwar and the role of Allied Special Forces.” In The NATO Intervention in Libya: Lessons Learned from the Campaign. Edited by Kjell Engelbrekt, Marcus Mohlin and Charlotte Wagnsson, 195-220. New York: Routledge, 2014.
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Monographs and Reports
Acton, James M. Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike. Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013.
Acton, James M. “Russia and Strategic, Conventional Weapons: Concerns and Responses.” In Hyper-glide Delivery Systems and the Implications for Strategic Stability and Arms Reductions. 21-33. Washington DC: Middlebury Institute of International Studies, April 2015.
Adamsky, Dmitry. “Cross Domain Coercion: The Current Russian Art of Strategy.” Proliferation Papers, no. 54 (November 2015).
Arbatov, Alexei. Gambit or Endgame? The New State of Arms Control. Moscow, Carnegie Moscow Center, March 2011.
Brustlein, Corentin. “Conventionalizing Deterrence? US Prompt Global Strike Programs and Their Limits.” Proliferation Papers, no. 52 (January 2015).
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Giles, Keir. Russian Ballistic Missile Defense: Rhetoric and Reality. Carlisle, PA: US Army War College Press, June 2015.
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Gormley, Dennis M. “US Advanced Conventional Systems and Conventional Prompt Global Strike Ambitions: Assessing the Risks, Benefits, and Arms Control Implications.” In Hyper-glide Delivery Systems and the Implications for Strategic Stability and Arms Reductions. 5-20. Washington, DC: Middlebury Institute of International Studies, April 2015.
Hallion, Richard P. Precision Guided Munitions and the New Era of Warfare. Fairbarin, ACT: Air Power Studies Center, April 1997.
Honkova, Jana. Current Developments in Russia’s Ballistic Missile Defense. Arlington, VA: George C. Marshall Institute, April 2013.
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Lambeth, Benjamin S. Lambeth. Air Operations in Israel’s War Against Hezbollah: Learning from Lebanon and Getting It Right in Gaza. Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2011.
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Lambeth, Benjamin S. NATO’s Air War for Kosovo: A Strategic and Operational Assessment. Santa Monica, CA: RAND, MR-1365-AF, 2001.
Lambeth, Benjamin S. The Continuing Crisis of Russian Air Power. Santa Monica, CA: RAND, P-8053, 2001.
Lambeth, Benjamin S. The Winning of Air Supremacy in Desert Storm. Santa Monica, CA: RAND, P-7837, 1993.
Lewis, George N. “Prompt Global Strike Weapons and Missile Defense: Implications for Reductions in Nuclear Weapons.” Working Paper. Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, Cornell University, 2016. https://pacs.einaudi.cornell.edu/sites/pacs/files/Lewis.Prompt%20Global%20Strike%20Weapons%20and%20Missile%20Defenses.pdf. Accessed February 26, 2016.
Martinage, Robert. Toward a New Offset Strategy: Exploiting US Long-Term Advantages to Restore US Global Power Projection Capability. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment, 2014.
Muller, Karl P., ed. Precision and Purpose: Airpower in the Libyan Civil War. Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2015.
Quinlivan, James T. Soviet Strategic Air Defense: A Long Past and an Uncertain Future. Santa Monica, CA: RAND, P-7579, 1989.
Shalpak, David A. and Michal W. Johnson. Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank: Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics. Santa Monica, CA: RAND, RR-1253-A, 2016.
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Stillion, John. Trends in Air-to-Air Combat: Implications for Future Air Superiority. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment, April 2015.
US Congressional Budget Office. Alternatives for Long-Range Ground Attack Systems. By Robie S. Roy and David Arthur. March 2006. https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/109th-congress-2005-2006/reports/03-31-strikeforce.pdf. Accessed June 30, 2015.
US Department of Defense, Office of the under Secretary of Defense Acquisition Technology and Logistics. Time Critical Conventional Strike from Strategic Standoff. Prepared by the Defense Science Board. Washington DC, 20301-3140, March 2009. http://www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/ADA498403.pdf. Accessed September 22, 2015.
US Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service. Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons. By Amy F. Woolf. RL32572. February 23, 2015.
US Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service. Russian Military Reform and Defense Policy, by Jim Nichol. R42006. August 24, 2011.
Vego, Milan Vego. Recce-Strike Complexes in Soviet Theory and Practice. Fort Leavenworth, KS: Soviet Army Studies Office, June 1990.
Watts, Barry D. The Evolution of Precision Strike. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment, 2013.
Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technology. Gosudarstvennyye programmy vooruzheniya Rossiyskoy Federatsii: problemy ispolnenia I potentsial optimizatsii [State Armaments Programs of the Russian Federation: Problems of Fulfillment and Potential for Optimization]. Moscow: Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technology, 2015).

Journal Articles
Antoshchenko, Peter. “Chto nado znat’ i nel’zya zabyvat’” [What Must be Known and Must Not be Forgotten]. Vozdusho-Kosmicheskaya Oborona, no. 5 (January 1, 2004). http://www.vko.ru/voyny-i-konflikty/chto-nado-znat-i-nelzya-zabyvat. Accessed August 23, 2015.
Barvinenko Vladimir V. “Vzaimodeystviya kak ne bylo tak, tak i net” [Coordination was, and is, Lacking]. Vozdusho-Kosmicheskaya Oborona, no. 4 (August 13, 2013). http://www.vko.ru/operativnoe-iskusstvo/vzaimodeystviya-kak-ne-bylo-tak-i-net. Accessed May 11, 2015.
Beason, Douglas J. and Mark Lewis. “The War Fighter’s Need for Science and Technology.” Air & Space Power Journal 19, no. 4 (Winter 2005): 71-81.
Borzov, Arkadiy S. “Vchera – Yugoslavia, kto zavtra? (Part 2)” [Yesterday – Yugoslava, Who Tomorrow?]. Vozdusho-Kosmicheskaya Oborona, no. 4 (May 5, 2008). http://www.vko.ru/operativnoe-iskusstvo/vchera-yugoslaviya-kto-zavtra-2. Accessed July 23, 2015.
Borzov, Arkadiy S. “VKO: pora prekratit’ terminologicheskiye diskussii” [Aerospace Defense: It is Time to Stop the Terminological Debate]. Vozdusho-Kosmicheskaya Oborona, no. 4 (August 4, 2010). http://www.vko.ru/koncepcii/vko-pora-prekratit-terminologicheskie-diskussii. Accessed July 23, 2015.
Cheltsov, B. F. and S. V. Kruglikov. “Theoretical Aspects of Developing Adaptive Combat Information Management System of Network Architecture Air Defense.” Vestnik Akademii Voyennykh Nauk, no. 4 (2013): 47-54.
Demin, Andrei G. and Sergei Y. Rubtsov. “Nebesnyy shchit Tsentral’noy Rossii (Part 4)” [The Sky Shield of Central Russia]. Vozdusho-Kosmicheskaya Oborona, no. 2 (April 7, 2015). http://www.vko.ru/voennoe-stroitelstvo/nebesnyy-shchit-centralnoy-rossii-chast-iv. Accessed August 28, 2015.
Demin, Andrei G. and Sergei Y. Rubtsov. “Nebesnyy shchit Tsentral’noy Rossii (Part 5)” [The Sky Shield of Central Russia]. Vozdusho-Kosmicheskaya Oborona, no. 3 (June 1, 2015). http://www.vko.ru/voennoe-stroitelstvo/nebesnyy-shchit-centralnoy-rossii-chast-iv. Accessed August 28, 2015.
Dybov, Valentin N. and Yuri D. Podgornykh. “Vsestoronne prorabotannoy teorii VKO poka net” [No Comprehensive Aerospace Defense Theory Yet]. Vozdusho-Kosmicheskaya Oborona, no. 6 (December 2, 2015). www.vko.ru/oboronka/vsestoronne-prorabotannoy-teorii-vko-poka-net. Accessed December 3, 2015.
Evgrafov, V. “Perspektivy sozdaniya novykh vozdushnykh platform REB dlya VS SSHA” [Prospects of Creating New Aerial EW Platforms for the USAF]. Zarubezhnoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, no. 10 (2005): 45-53.
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