本文以日經225指數及東證房價指數做為研究對象，探討安倍晉三再度拜相，宣布將拯救日本經濟後，日本匯率對日本股市與房市的影響，以供市場參與者在投資時進行參考的依據。
    本研究透過平滑移轉迴歸模型，以匯率做為門檻變數，並加入利率、物價指數等一些經濟變數，探討日圓匯率在不同門檻下，對日本的房地產以及股市會造成何種影響變化。
    實證結果顯示，在小於或等於門檻值時，日圓匯率對日本股價以及日本的房地產皆有顯著性的正向影響，剛好是安倍剛上台半年後政策可能開始發酵的結果，日本政府可以透過觀察匯率落在何種區間，藉由對匯率進行控制，來判斷日本的經濟趨勢會如何變化，再搭配一些政策，或可對使日本經濟走向更長遠未來。

In this study, the Nikkei 225 index and the Topix Real Estate Index as the object of study, to explore when Abe who elected prime minister again. After announcing the Japanese economy will be saved, the impact of Japanese exchange rate on Japanese stock market and housing market for the market participants in the investment when there is a basis for reference.
    Through the smooth transition regression model, using exchange rate as threshold variable, and adding interest rates, price index and some economic variables, to explore the yen exchange rate under different thresholds, the Japanese real estate and the stock market will cause what impact changes.
    The empirical results point out that the yen exchange rate has a significant positive effect on stock price and real estate at less than or equal to the threshold. It is just the result that the policy may start fermenting after six months of Abe's election. The Japanese government can observe the exchange rate in what range, by controlling the exchange rate to determine how Japan's economic trends will change, and then with some policies, may make the Japanese economy to a longer future.

目錄
第一章 緒論	1
第一節	研究背景與動機	1
第二節	研究目的	4
第三節	研究流程與架構	6
第二章 文獻回顧	7
第一節	匯率與股市關聯性文獻	7
第二節	總體經濟與房地產關聯性文獻	9
第三節	股市與房地產關聯性文獻	10
第四節	文獻回顧結語	11
第三章 研究方法	13
第一節	單根檢定	13
第二節	平滑移轉迴歸模型	16
第四章 實證結果與分析	23
第一節	研究資料	23
第二節	敘述統計	25
第三節	單根檢定分析	26
第四節	平滑移轉迴歸之線性檢定	28
第五節	平滑移轉迴歸之轉換函數檢定	29
第六節	模型之參數估計與檢定	31
第五章 結論與建議	40
第一節    研究結論	40
第二節    建議	42
參考文獻	43


圖目錄
圖 1.3.1 : 研究流程圖	6
圖 3.2.1：邏輯型函數圖形	20
圖 3.2.2：指數型函數圖形	21
圖 4.6.1：日經225指數邏輯型函數圖形	35
圖 4.6.2：東證房價指數指數型函數圖形	39

表目錄
表4.2.1 樣本資料敘述統計	25
表4.3.1 變數之ADF、PP、KPSS單根檢定表	27
表4.4.1 LM-Type之線性檢定	28
表4.5.1 模型轉換函數檢定表	30
表4.6.1 日經225指數LSTR模型參數估計	34
表4.6.2 各解釋變數對日經225指數影響	35
表4.6.3 東證房價指數ESTR模型參數估計	38
表4.6.4 各解釋變數對東證房價指數影響	39

中文文獻
1.翁逸群、徐曉梅 (2014)，「股價指數、匯率、外資比例與房價指數之不對稱因果關係研究-以台灣地區為例」，僑光科技大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
2.張兵、封思賢、李心丹、汪慧建 (2008)，「匯率與股價變動關係：基於匯改後數據的實證研究」經濟研究43期，70-81。
3.許耀文、陳其蔚 (2010)，「股價，匯率和房價動態關係之研究」，臺灣大學國際企業學系碩士論文。

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