基於對資源競爭與其衍生的國際衝突的重視，以及湄公河流域未來的發展趨勢對該區域政經局勢的影響，本文焦點著重於以湄公河委員會（Mekong River Commission, MRC）為主的湄公河管理典則（regime）的演變過程以及影響成因。藉由應用國際關係中國際典則（international regime）理論的三個學派—利益、認知、權力（interest, cognition, power）—之論述，本文試圖找出對典則演進最具解釋力的學派，以及存在於資源領域的典則變遷與國際衝突間的可能連結。在分析了湄公典則三個時期（湄公委員會/MC時期，1957-1975；臨時湄公委員會/IMC時期，1978-1991；湄公河委員會/MRC時期，1995以後）的演變過程後，得到的實務面與理論面的觀點如下：實務面上，(1)湄公典則近四十年來運作的成效，決定於有無霸權支持、地緣政治紛亂與否、以及參與者相對利益考量的高低等因素；(2)湄公典則的未來發展利基，應在推動「永續發展」相關議題上，然因為泰國制定完整用水規範的意願不高，中國犧牲雲南水力發展的可能性不大，以及開放政治空間非沿岸國國家政策的優先目標，湄公典則未來的運作成效將相對受限。至於理論層面，研究發現(1)權力學派對典則變遷的過程最具解釋力，但在典則的延續面上解釋力則相對不足；(2)不同因素間的互動會影響典則的穩定性，但與國際衝突間不存在明確的關連；(3)典則的建立與變遷、國際組織與會員國的關係、大國與小國的互動、以及利益與認知因素間，存在若干互動趨勢。

Motivated by the concern about resource-related conflicts and the importance of power competition in the basin of Mekong River, this article focuses on the evolution of Mekong River Commission, on which the Mekong regime has been based, and the factors accounting for the regime dynamics. Through the application of interest-, cognition-, and power-based schools of international regime, this article tries to find out which school accounts most for the Mekong regime and whether there exists any relations between regime change and international conflict. After analyzing Mekong regime in three periods(MC,1957-1975; IMC, 1978-1991; MRC, 1995~), we find out: 1. practically, (1)regime effects depend on support from hegemony, geopolitical stability, and low  relative-gains concern; (2)the niche of Mekong regime in the future is its promotion of “sustainable development,” but its effectiveness will be limited by both Thailand and China’s unwillingness to cooperate and compressed political space for civil society in participating countries. 2. theoretically, (1)power-based school accounts most for regime dynamics, but is relatively weak in explaining regime maintenance; (2)interactions between different factors may set regime unstable, but have no explicit connections with international conflicts; (3)some trends exist in the following fields: establishment and change of regime, relations between IGOs and their participants, interactions between strong actors and weak ones, and relations between interest- and cognition-based factors.

導 論.....................................................1
 壹、研究動機與目的.......................................1
 貳、研究途徑與方法.......................................4
 參、研究架構與範圍......................................21
 肆、資料來源與研究限制..................................25
第一章 湄公河典則的建立、早期演變與其影響因素(1957-1975).26
 第一節 湄公委員會的建立.................................26
  1. 亞遠經委會：積極的提案者............................26
  2. 美國：從獨攬到支持..................................28
  3. 沿岸四國：引頸企盼..................................30
 第二節 典則的內涵與演變.................................32
  1. 組織結構............................................32
  2. 典則的制定..........................................36
  3. 典則範圍的逐漸擴張..................................37
  4. 湄公典則的具體內涵..................................41
 第三節 典則成效：穩定度與有效性.........................45
  1. 典則穩定度：穩定、有彈性............................46
  2. 典則成效：大計劃，小成就............................50
 第四節 利益：外援與對話平台.............................57
  1. 外援：發展與重建的基礎..............................58
  2. 對話平台：反共、溝通、利益重分配....................60
 第五節 認知：TVA模式與認知社群..........................62
  1. TVA：河域開發的成功典範.............................63
  2. 認知社群：國家利益與典則內涵的中介者................66
 第六節 權力：地緣政治、主權考量與美國霸權...............68
  1. 地緣政治：成也蕭何，敗也蕭何........................69
  2. 主權考量：一致決與平衡開發..........................73
  3. 美國霸權：利弊參半的強大外援........................75
第二章 第一次典則變遷與其影響因素（1978-1991）...........91
 第一節 典則的變遷.......................................92
  1. 整體地緣政治情勢：權力真空下的新聯盟關係............92
  2. 緩和局勢下的妥協：臨時湄公委員會之建立..............93
 第二節 第一次變遷後的湄公典則...........................94
  1. 組織結構............................................94
  2. 開發規模與IMC權限的縮小.............................95
  3. 變遷後的IMC時期湄公典則.............................98
 第三節 典則成效：勉強維繫，小有成就....................102
  1. 穩定性：利益考量與軍事衝突的犧牲品.................102
  2. 有效性：強大限制下的有限成果.......................106
 第四節 利益：政治與經濟層面的議題連結..................110
  1. 議題連結一：迫切的經濟援助.........................110
  2. 議題連結二：IMC的政治效應..........................112
 第五節 權力：權力運作以及不容妥協的相對利益............115
  1. 權力運作：資源壓力下的典則內涵.....................115
  2. 相對利益：地緣政治與權力衝突.......................117
第三章 第二次典則變遷與其影響因素（1995-2002）..........127
 第一節 典則的變遷......................................128
  1. 各國情勢...........................................128
  2. 開啟談判的曙光：巴黎和平協議與越南解凍.............130
  3. 主導談判進程的關鍵行為者：UNDP、泰國與越南.........133
 第二節 第二次變遷後的典則內涵：1995湄公協議............135
  1. 組織架構...........................................135
  2. 1995湄公協議之主要原則.............................137
  3. MRC典則內涵特之特色：義務降低,重視分配,排除外力....140
 第三節 典則成效：各趨所利的不協調成果..................141
  1. 穩定性：選擇性的遵行態度...........................142
  2. 有效性：制度不足、誠意有限.........................145
 第四節 利益：典則功能與合作成效........................148
  1. 典則提供的合作誘因：監督機制、議題連結.............148
  2. 降低合作效果的因素：有名無實的典則架構.............153
 第五節 認知：議題轉換、共同認知、信念認同..............156
  1. 焦點議題之轉換：從開發到維護水源...................156
  2. 共識見解之有無：ILC與泰國改道計畫..................158
  3. 信念內涵與執行成效.................................161
 第六節 權力：泰國相對優勢權力之運作....................164
  1. 泰國相對權力之獨大.................................164
  2. 服膺強者偏好的典則內涵及權力結構...................165
結 論...................................................179
 一、湄公河典則之成效評估（1957-2002）..................179
  1. 湄公河典則的穩定性.................................179
  2. 湄公河典則之有效性.................................182
 二、理論檢證...........................................185
 三、理論補充...........................................191
  1. 理論外之因素.......................................191
  2. 影響因素間之互動...................................193
 四、互動模式...........................................198
 五、湄公典則之未來展望.................................200
參考書目	204
＜附件一＞  1957湄公憲章	214
＜附件二＞  1975聯合宣言	219
＜附件三＞  1978湄公憲章	233
＜附件四＞  1995湄公協議	238


圖表目次

表 導 1  示意賽局範例	8
表 導 2  勸說賽局範例	8
表 導 3  各學派變因與典則動態之關係	17
表 導 4  權力結構-觀念認知矩陣圖	18

表 1.1湄公典則的內涵（MC時期）	45
表 1.2  1957年亞遠報告推薦的湄公河主流域計畫	51
表 1.3  湄公典則的成效（1957-75）-功能層面	53
表 1.4  湄公委員會運作資源（截至1970年12月31日）	54
表 1.5  各層面變因對典則動態之影響（MC時期）	83
表 1.6  調整後各層面變因對典則動態之影響（MC時期）	85
表 1.7  既有理論與新變因對典則動態之影響	87

表 2.1  1990湄公梯級水壩遷移人口	98
表 2.2  IMC時期的湄公典則內涵	101
表 2.3  湄公河下游經濟與人口統計數據（1970年與1985年）	112
表 2.4  各層面因素對典則動態之影響	123

表 3.1  1995湄公協議之審核程序	138
表 3.2  1995湄公協議下的湄公典則內涵	139
表 3.3  MRC成立前後國際贊助金額比較圖	147
表 3.4  MRC歷年贊助金額（2001-2005）	147
表 3.5  審核程序對各國水資源利益之影響	150
表 3.6  MC時期沿岸各國間的互動格局	157
表 3.7  90年代沿岸國間的互動格局	157
表 3.8  1996年MRC成員國特定經社指標	164
表 3.9  沿岸四國談判爭執點與談判結果	166
表 3.10  泰國截道取水計畫與受審義務	169
表 3.11  各層面因素對典則動態之影響（MRC時期）	173
表 3.12  調整後各層面因素對典則動態之影響（MRC時期）	174

表 結1  湄公典則各時期之內涵與權力結構	186
表 結2  各層面因素對典則之影響（1957-2002）	189
表 結3  各時期非決策層面之典則內涵*	190
表 結4  各情境與典則、衝突間之關係	197

圖 導 1  不同情境間的相互變換	19
圖 導 2  影響因素-待解釋現象	21
圖 導 3  研究架構圖	22

圖 1.1  湄公委員會（1957-75）組織架構圖	33
圖 1.2  湄公委員會歷年贊助額度（1958-1986）	71
圖 1.3  湄公委員會歷年贊助者-各國比較（1957-1967）	76
圖 1.4  地緣政治-霸權主導-典則運作之關係	88

圖 2.1  1985年管理取向的秘書處組織架構	95
圖 2.2  權力與利益因素對不同層面的典則動態之影響	125

圖 3.1  湄公河委員會組織架構圖	136
圖 3.2  典則功能與典則動態/成效間之關係	155
圖 3.3  權力因素對典則之決定性影響（MRC時期）	176

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