論文提要內容：

這篇論文的目的是評估東協區域論壇，在亞太區致力於維持和平及安全的功效。1993年，東協區域論壇，於新加坡舉辦的第二十六屆東協外交部長會議，正式成立，且於1994年的7月，在曼谷舉行第一場就職會議。東協區域論壇是第一個區域性、廣泛的多邊論壇，提供官方對於和平及安全議題上的商討機制。然而，此論壇不是個共同防禦組織，本質更不是根基於共同安全上。它是一個根基於多邊主義上，獨特的安全商定、協議。它的目的是要促進對於政治、安全議題上的共同利益及顧慮，建立結構性的對談及商議。然而，因為此論壇缺乏了制度化及決策上的共識，被貼上了”清談”的標籤，存在著對於此論壇致力於維持和平和安全的效用，種種支持和反對的聲音。因此，對於此論壇的績效、本身的限制及對於如何處理南海紛爭，將會執行評估機制。南海議題常被提及、討論因為它代表了此區域主要和最近期的焦點，以及其地區也包含了東協區域論壇的成員們。

The purpose of this thesis is to assess the efficacy of the ASEAN Regional Forum in maintaining peace and security in the Asia-Pacific Region. Founded 1993, during the twenty-sixth ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in Singapore, the ASEAN Regional Forum’s (ARF) first inaugural meeting took place in Bangkok on July 1994. The ARF is the first regionally inclusive multilateral forum for official consultations on peace and security issues. However the ARF is not a collective defense organization, nor is it based on collective security. Rather the ARF is a unique alternative security arrangement based on multilateralism. It aims to foster constructive dialogue and consultation on political and security issues of common interest and concern, and make significant contributions to efforts towards confidence-building and preventive diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific region.

However, because of the forums lack of institutionalization and consensus based approach to decision making, it has attracted the label of “talk-shop” and there continues to be arguments, for and against, the effectiveness of the forum in achieving maintain peace and security in the region. Therefore an assessment of the ARF will be carried out by looking at the forums achievements, limitations and it’s handling of the South China Sea Conflict. The SCS is discussed since it represents the region’s most major and recent flash point and includes members of the ARF.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1	1
INTRODUCTION	1
1.1.	Background	1
1.2. Research Objective	3
1.3. Research Limitation	3
1.4. Research Motivation	4
1.5. Literature Review	6
1.5.1. Critics	6
1.5.2. Advocates	7
1.6. Theoretical framework	9
1.6.1. Realism	9
1.6.2. Constructivism	10
1.7. Thesis Outline	13
CHAPTER 2	14
THE ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM	14
2.1. Introduction	14
2.2. Motivations for the ARF	15
2.3. Establishment of the ARF	18
2.4. Principles and Norms	20
2.5. Concept Paper	21
2.5.1. Confidence Building	22
2.5.2. Preventative Diplomacy	22
2.5.3. Conflict Management	23
2.6. Decision-Making in the ARF	24
2.7. Criteria for Participation	25
2.8. Conclusion	29
CHAPTER 3	31
ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM	31
3.1. Introduction	31
3.2. Inclusiveness	32
3.3. Norm-Setting	33
3.3. Venue for Discussion	35
3.4. Engaging Major Powers	36
3.5. Confidence Building	37
3.6. Conclusion	39
CHAPTER 4	41
THE ARF & NON-TRADITIONAL SECURITY	41
4.1. Introduction	41
4.2. Areas of Cooperation	42
4.3. Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR)43
4.4. Counter-Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) 46
4.5. ASEAN Political-Security Community	48
4.6. Conclusion	50
CHAPTER 5	51
ASEAN REGIONAL FORUMS LIMITATIONS	51
5.1. Introduction	51
5.2. Preventative Diplomacy (PD) measures	51
5.2.1. What are Preventative Diplomacy measures?	52
5.2.2. Why the ARF has failed to implement PD measures.	52
5.3. The ASEAN WAY	56
5.4 Dependent on the interest of Great Powers	58
5.5. Conclusion	60
CHAPTER 6	62
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTE	62
6.1. Introduction	62
6.2. Territorial Disputes	64
6.3. ARF’s Role in the South China Sea Disputes	66
6.4. Challenges of an ASEAN led ARF	68
6.4.1. A lack of cohesion among its (ASEAN) members	69
6.4.2. Slow ASEAN decision-making mechanism	70
6.4.3. Limitations on the implementation of its code of conduct	70
6.4.4. China’s influence	71
6.4.5. ASEAN out of depth & Complexity of the Dispute	73
6.5. Conclusion	73

CHAPTER 7	75
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS	75
7.1. Assessing the effectiveness of the ARF	75
7.1.1. Personal Opinion	77
7.2. Recommendations	78
7.2.1 Preventative Diplomacy	78
7.2.2. Re-thinking the ASEAN Way	78
7.2.3. Institutionalization of the ARF	80
7.3. Future Scenario	81
REFERENCES	83

LIST OF TABLES & FIGURES

Table 1.1: Summary of Theoretical Arguments of the ARF 12
Table 2.1: Principles & Norms of the ARF	20
Table 2.2: Criteria for Participation in the ARF 26
Table 2.3: Development of the ARF	27
Table 3.1: Types of Confidence-Building Measures 39
Table 4.1: ARF Workshops, Seminars & Exercises on HADR (2000-2016)	45
Table 4.2: ARF Workshops and Seminars on CTTC	47
Figure 6.1: Territorial Claims in SCS	63
Table 6.1: Claimants in the SCS	64

Books
Acharya, Amitav. Constructing A Security Community In Southeast Asia: ASEAN And The Problem Of Regional Order. 2nd ed. New York: Routledge, 2009. 

Caballero-Anthony, Mely. Regional Security In Southeast Asia. 1st ed. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2007.  

Haacke, Jurgen and Morada M. Noel, “The ASEAN Regional Forum and Cooperative Security: Introduction,” in Cooperative Security in the Asia-Pacific, eds. Jurgen Haacke and Noel M. Morada, New York: Routledge, 2010.

Emmers, Ralf. Cooperative Security and the Balance of Power in ASEAN and the ARF. London: Routledge, 2006. 
Severino, Rodolfo. The ASEAN Regional Forum. 1st ed. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), 2009. 

Yuzawa, Takeshi, Japan’s Security Policy and the ASEAN Regional Forum: The Search for Multilateral Security in the Asia Pacific, New York: Routledge, 2007


Journals
Acharya, Amitav. "Doomed by Dialogue? Will ASEAN Survive Great Power Rivalry in Asia." The Asan Forum, 29 June 2015. 

Emmers, Ralf, and Tan See Seng. “The ASEAN Regional Forum and Preventive Diplomacy: Built to Fail?” Asian Security 7, no. 1 (2011)

Evans, Thammy. "The PRC's Relationship With The ASEAN Regional Forum Realpolitik, Regime Theory Or A Continuation Of The Sinic Zone Of Influence System?". Modern Asian Studies 37.3 (2003): 737-763.

Foot, Rosemary. "China In The ASEAN Regional Forum: Organizational Processes And Domestic Modes Of Thought". Asian Survey 38.5 (1998): 425-440. 

Heller, Dominik. "The Relevance of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) for Regional Security in the Asia-Pacific." Contemporary Southeast Asia 27.1 (2005): 123-45. 

Jho, Whasun, and Soo A. Chae. “Hegemonic Disputes and the Limits of the ASEAN Regional Forum.” Pacific Focus 29, no. 2 (2014)

Katsumata, Hiro, “Establishment of the ASEAN Regional Forum: constructing a ‘talking shop’ or a ‘norm brewery’”? The Pacific Review, Vol.19, No.2 (2006), pp. 181- 98.

Majumdar, Munmun. "The ASEAN Way of Conflict Management in the South China Sea."Strategic Analysis 39.1 (2015): 73-87. ProQuest

Narine, Shaun. "ASEAN and the ARF: The Limits of the "ASEAN Way"." Asian Survey. University of California Press Journals, 01 Oct. 1997. 

Nguyen, Hai Hong. "Time to Reinterpret ASEAN's Consensus Principle." East Asia Forum. N.p., 27 July 2012.
Scott, David, “Conflict Irresolution in the South China Sea,” Asian Survey 52, no. 6 (November/ December 2012): 1002.

Yuzawa, Takeshi, “The Evolution of Preventive Diplomacy in the ASEAN Regional Forum,” Asian Survey, Vol.46, No.4 (2006), pp. 785-804. 


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ASEAN Regional Forum, “Chairman’s Statement, the 1st Meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum” (Bangkok, Thailand, 25 July 1994.) web http://www.asean.org/.
ASEAN Regional Forum, “Chairman’s Statement of the 2nd Meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum”, (Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam, 1 August 1995) web http://www.asean.org/.

ASEAN Regional Forum, “Chairman’s Statement of the 7th Meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum” (Bangkok, ASEAN Regional Forum, July 27, 2000). web http://www.asean.org/.

ASEAN Regional Forum, “Chairman’s Statement of the 8th Meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum” (Hanoi, ASEAN Regional Forum, July 25, 2001). web http://www.asean.org/.

ASEAN Regional Forum, “Chairman’s Statement of the 17th Meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum” (Hanoi, ASEAN Regional Forum, July 23, 2010). web http://www.asean.org/.

ASEAN Regional Forum, “Chairman’s Statement of the 21st Meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum” (Nay Pyi Taw, ASEAN Regional Forum, Aug 10, 2014). web http://www.asean.org/.
ARF List of Activities on HADR: http://aseanregionalforum.asean.org/library/arf-activities.html?id=52

The ARF Work Plan on Counter-Terrorism and Transnational Crime 2015-2017:http://aseanregionalforum.asean.org/files/library/Plan%20of%20Action%20and%20Work%20Plans/ARF%20Work%20Plan%20on%20Counter-Terrorism%20and%20Transnational%20Crime%202015-2017.pdf

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ARF: Concept and Principles of Preventive Diplomacy”, http://www.aseansec.org/ 3571.htm/, accessed 11 Nov 2016.

The ARF‟s Concept Paper: http://www.aseanregionalforum.org/PublicLibrary/ARFChairmansStatementsandReports/TheASEAN RegionalForumAConceptPaper/tabid/200/Default.aspx

The ARF current members: http://aseanregionalforum.asean.org/about.html

Behravesh, Maysam. "Constructivism: An Introduction." E-International Relations. E-International Relations, 3 Feb. 2011. Web. 18 Oct. 2016. <http://www.e-ir.info/2011/02/03/constructivism-an-introduction/>.

"Beijing's Divide and Conquer Strategy Throws ASEAN into Disarray." The Japan Times. N.p., 23 June 2016. Web. 15 Apr. 2017. <http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/07/23/asia-pacific/beijings-divide-conquer-strategy-throws-asean-disarray/#.WR2n-oyGPIU>.

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Chanto, Sisowath Doung. "The ASEAN Regional Forum – The Emergence of ‘Soft Security’: Improving the Functionality of the ASEAN Security Regime." A Functional Analysis of Multilateral Regimes: The ARF – The Emergence of ‘Soft Security’ The ASEAN Regional Forum – The Emergence of ‘Soft Security’: Improving the Functionality of the ASEAN Security Regime (n.d.): n. pag. Mar. 2003. Web. 1 Nov. 2016. http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/singapur/04601/d+c2003-3-chanto.pdf

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