隨著全球經濟自由開放後，投資的標的種類眾多，尤其金融衍生性商品種類與日俱增，然而金融性衍生商品的風險管理格外重要，風險管理不當，容易導致金融危機的產生，尤其在2008年的金融海嘯，台灣在此風暴中也無一倖免，而在此惡劣的環境下，投資人亦可利用金融海嘯後來，來建構一個較適合的投資組合。本研究採用MCDM法找出各項考量因素的相對關係，並計算出各項因子權重，找出關鍵評選準則，並根據各項因子權重排列出方案的優劣順序，並做出最佳的決策。
首先，以投資組合的考量為中心，透過回顧過去文獻，找出哪幾項構面最常被學者所提及，而本研究找出「風險｣、「報酬｣兩項構面，並探討，找出「市場風險」、「流動性風險」、「槓桿風險」、「資本利得」、「股利收益」五項次因子；之後進行專家學者的問卷調查，共回收了16份有效問卷，應用DEMATEL法計算出各準則的關聯性，發現「市場風險」擁有最大影響力，代表如需改善其他準則，可以由此作為主要改善考量；而「槓桿風險」擁有最大關聯性，表示此項為專家學者認為較重要的評選準則。再來運用DANP法求出各項準則權重，得出「槓桿風險｣有較高的權重，而「股利收益｣則相對其他準則來說較不被重視。最後運用VIKOR法進行三種投資組合的績效評估，得出C投資組合同時擁有最高總績效值及最低平均差距(gaps)為相對最佳決策。

After a free and open global economy, investment is the subject of so many species, especially the financial derivatives category increased, financial derivatives risk management is especially important, however, improper risk management, can easily lead to financial crisis. Particularly during the 2008 financial crisis, Taiwan also not spared in this financial crisis, and harsh environment, but investors can also use opportunity during the financial crisis and to construct a better portfolio. MCDM method is used to identify the various factors taken into account in this study, and calculate the weight of each factor, identify key selection criteria, and arranged according to the weight of each factor out the advantages and disadvantages of the order, and make the best decisions.
First, with consideration of the investment portfolio as the Center, through Literature Review identify which project are most often referred to by scholars, and find out risk and reward two main facets, and to explore, finding out the "market risk" " Liquidity Risk ""leverage Risk ""capital gains" and "dividend income" five second factors. then Questionnaire of experts, recovered a total of 16 responses, Application of DEMATEL method to calculate the relevance of the guidelines and found that "market risk" has the most influence, representative if you need other criteria can be considered as a major improvement and "leverage risk " with the greatest relevance, said the experts believed the more important selection criteria. DANP method is used to calculate the standard weight, produce the "leverage risk" has a higher weight, and "dividend income" are relatively less attention for other guidelines. Finally using VIKOR method for three kinds of investment portfolio performance evaluation, portfolio with the highest overall performance value of c is obtained and the lowest average gap for the best decisions.

目錄	I
圖目錄	III
表目錄	IV
第壹章	緒論	1
第一節 研究背景與動機	1
第二節 研究目的	2
第三節 研究方法	3
第四節 研究流程	4
第貳章	文獻探討	6
第一節 金融風暴背景	6
第二節 金融風暴下底部上升段選擇投資組合考量因素	8
第三節 選擇投資考量因素之次因子	10
第四節 投資工具分析與建構投資組合	16
第參章	研究方法	20
第一節 研究架構圖＆變數與操作型定義	20
第二節 研究方法	23
第肆章	實證分析	31
第一節 一致性檢定及DEMATEL－評估各準則間之關係	31
第二節 DANP－評估各準則權重	38
第三節 VIKOR－評選最佳決策	41
第四節 比較學者與專家對評選準則的重視度	43
第伍章	結論與研究建議	44
第一節 研究結論	44
第二節 研究限制及未來研究建議	46
第陸章	參考資料	47
附錄	52
附錄一、問卷	52
圖目錄 
圖1-1研究流程圖.................................................5
圖2-1 研究架構..................................................21
圖4-1構面因果邏輯圖............................................35
圖4-2 A構面下評估準則因果邏輯關係圖............................36
圖4-3 B構面下評估準則因果邏輯關係圖............................37

表目錄 
表2-1 投資組合考量因子...........................................9
表2-2 主構面與學者相關文獻......................................10
表2-3 投資組合風險的次因子......................................12
表2-4投資組合報酬的次因子.......................................13
表2-5 投資組合之投資工具選擇....................................15
表2-6 投資組合決策..............................................18
表4-1 一致性分析................................................31
表4-2 Z矩陣直接影響關係矩陣....................................32
表4-3 X矩陣正規化的影響關係矩陣................................32
表4-4 T矩陣總影響關係矩陣......................................33
表4-5 T矩陣構面關係矩陣.........................................33
表4-6各準則之影響及被影響程度...................................34
表4-7各構面之影響及被影響程度...................................34
表4-8  A構面評估準則數據........................................35
表4-9  B構面評估準則數據........................................36
表4-8 Unweighted矩陣未加權超級矩陣............................38
表4-9 Weighted矩陣加權矩陣.....................................39
表4-10之Llimit矩陣極限矩陣....................................39
表4-11投資組合考量因素準則權重排序............................39
表4-15評選投資組合各準則評分總合平均表........................41
表4-16 總績效評估表.............................................41

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