回顧近年來金融大事件，歷年危機發生間隔往往在6~10年間。在2009~10年歐債危機之後，事隔至今已有6~7年之久，若近年即將發生再一次的金融危機，選擇最切適之投資工具與了解其各自的報酬與風險，將是一個重要的關鍵。本研究採用的MCDM法，能找出各項因素的相對關係，並計算出各項因子權重，找出關鍵評選準則，並根據各項因子權重排列出投資工具選擇的優劣順序，並做出最佳的決策，期望能透過此次研究，做為投資人未來在股市下跌段時，投資工具選擇的一項參考指標。
    首先，以金融風暴下-下跌段的投資工具選擇考量因素為中心，透過回顧過去文獻找出哪幾項構面最常被學者提及，從中我們找出了「報酬」、「風險」兩項構面，並進一步的深入探討，找出了「股息收入」、「資本利得」、「市場風險」、「流動性風險」、「事件風險」五項次因子，以及最常被提及使用的「選擇權(賣權)、「權證(認售)」、「股票(放空)」等三項投資工具；隨後，進行專家問卷回收16份有效問卷，之後應用DEMATEL法計算出各項準則的關聯性，發現「股息收入」有最高的影響力，代表如需改善其他準則，可以由此作為主要改善考量；而「資本利得」則擁有最大關聯性，表示此項為專家學者認為較重要的評選準則。接著運用DANP法進行權重分析，5項評選準則的權重依序為資本利得、市場風險、流動性風險、事件風險、股息收入；最後，運用VIKOR進行投資工具評估，由分析結果得知，選擇權(賣權)的總績效值最高，同時也擁有最低的平均差距（gaps），代表選擇權(賣權)在專家學者眼中，相對於其他兩種投資工具更適合作為金融風暴下-下跌段時的選擇，也就是本研究得出的最佳決策。

Review financial events in recent years, the crisis often happened the interval every 6-10 years. After the 2009-10 European debt crisis has been 6-7 years , if it going to happen again in recent years, there will be a key point choosing the most suitable investment tools. We used MCDM methods in this study, it can identify the relative relationship between the factors, calculate the weight of each other, identify key selection criteria, and according to the factor weights to array the sequence of the investment tools. Finally, choose the best decisions. Through this study, hope we can give investors a better suggestion choosing the investment tools during downside.
     First, through past literature to find out which of several facts has been studied by scholars that based on the selecting investment tools during financial crisis downside. We find out the "returns" and "risk" two dimensions, and further in-depth discussion to find out the "dividend income", "capital gains", "market risk", and "liquidity risk", and "event risk" five minor factors, and most often was mentioned using of "options (put) ", and" warrants (put warrants) ", and" stock (short) " , Three kinds of investment tool; Subsequently, recover 16 valid questionnaires by expert questionnaire , and application DEMATEL method to calculate the relevance of the criterions, found "dividend income" has the highest influence, if you want to improve other criteria, you can priority to improve this criterion. " Capital gains " has the largest association, which represents the experts believe that is more important selection criterion. Next, use the DANP method to calculate the weights of the criterions, the weighting of the selection criteria in order for " capital gains", "market risk"," liquidity risk", "event risk", and "dividend income". Finally, use the VIKOR method to evaluation performance of the three investment tools. We found the options (put) has both the highest value and the lowest average total performance gaps, which is the optimal decision relatively. The results show that options (put) is the better decision in this study.

目錄
目錄	I
表目錄	III
圖目錄	IV
第壹章 緒論	1
第一節 研究背景與動機	1
第二節 研究目的	5
第三節 研究流程	6
第貳章 文獻探討	8
第一節 金融危機	8
第二節 金融危機下-下降段，投資工具選擇考量因素文獻探討	9
第三節 次因子文獻探討	13
第四節 金融危機下-下降段，投資工具選擇文獻探討	19
第參章 研究方法	21
第一節　研究架構圖	21
第二節  研究方法	22
第三節　問卷設計與資料來源	29
第肆章 實證分析	30
第一節　一致性檢定與DEMATEL－評估各準則間之關係	30
第二節　DANP－評估各準則權重	39
第三節　VIKOR－評選最佳決策	44
第伍章 結論與建議	47
第一節 研究結論	47
第二節 未來研究建議	48
參考文獻	50
  一、英文文獻	50
   二、中文文獻	56
附錄	57
附錄一、問卷	57

	
 
	表目錄
表2-1 各學者所提出主構面相關文獻分類整理 12
表2-2 各學者所提及投資報酬次因子	14
表2-3 各學者所提及投資風險次因子	18
表2-4 各學者所提及投資工具選擇文獻整理 20
表4-1　一致性分析	30
表4-2　Z矩陣　直接影響關係矩陣	31
表4-3　X矩陣　正規化的影響關係矩陣	32
表4-4　T矩陣　總影響關係矩陣	32
表4-5　T矩陣　構面關係矩陣	 34
表4-6　各準則之影響及被影響程度	34
表4-7　各構面之影響及被影響程度	35
表4-8　A構面評估準則數據	36
表4-9　B構面評估準則數據	37
表4-10　Unweighted矩陣　未加權超級矩陣	39
表4-11　Weighted矩陣　加權超級矩陣	40
表4-12　Llimit矩陣　極限矩陣	40
表4-13　金融風暴下-下跌段，投資工具選擇考量因素準則權重排序 42
表4-14　金融風暴下-下跌段，投資工具考量因素A構面準則權重排序 42
表4-15　金融風暴下-下跌段，投資工具考量因素B構面準則權重排序 43
表4-16　金融風暴下-下跌段，投資工具考量因素構面間權重排序 43
表4-17　評選投資工具各準則評分總合平均表	44
表4-18總績效評估表	45
表4-19　學者與業者評選準則權重比較表	46

圖目錄
圖1-1　研究流程圖	7
圖3-1　本研究架構圖 22
圖4-1　構面因果邏輯關係圖	35
圖4-2　A構面下評估準則因果邏輯關係圖 36
圖4-3　B構面下評估準則因果邏輯關係圖 37
圖4-4　所有評估準則因果邏輯關係圖 38

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