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系統識別號 U0002-1806201213253500
中文論文名稱 影響台灣民生財經變數因素之探討
英文論文名稱 Investigating the Factors Affecting the Variables Related to the Livelihood in Taiwan
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 管理科學學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Master’s Program, Department of Management Sciences
學年度 100
學期 2
出版年 101
研究生中文姓名 劉秀娟
研究生英文姓名 Hsiu-Chuan Liu
學號 699620943
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2012-05-31
論文頁數 51頁
口試委員 指導教授-倪衍森
委員-曹銳勤
委員-陳明麗
中文關鍵字 通貨膨脹率  失業率  痛苦指數  所得分配 
英文關鍵字 Inflation  Unemployment Rate  Misery Index  Income Distribution 
學科別分類
中文摘要 歷經2008年金融海嘯後各國政府紛紛祭出財政與貨幣政策,企圖在一片不景氣下力挽狂瀾,然而2009年11月的景氣對策燈號已由綠燈轉為黃紅燈,整體來說景氣有逐漸回溫的現象,但事實上人民卻無法感受到經濟復甦所帶來的利多而是物價不斷飆漲以及失業危機,在此背景下本研究欲探討民生財經變數對通貨膨脹率、失業率、痛苦指數與所得分配之影響。經由本研究之實證結果,有以下之重要發現:其一當製造業景氣好時,消費者物價指數上升、各行業平均薪資提高以及貧富差距拉大;當製造業景氣差時,則失業率上升,因此可看出台灣的製造業與經濟命脈之間的影響性。其二當食物價格上漲將壓縮其他消費時,非食品生產者便面臨存貨危機進而減少投資與刪減人力資源,因此將使得原本較低收入的家庭生活更加困苦。其三當景氣不好與失業率上升時,有人為了生活開銷而捉衣見肘,但也有大舉入市的投資者使得股價上漲,形成強烈對比,富者擁有較多資源與資金相對於貧者,因此更使得貧者越貧,富者越富。
英文摘要 After financial tsunami in 2008, governments worldwide announced various fiscal and monetary policies, attempting to improve situation. Although Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) in September, 2009 had turned into yellow-red, people didn’t feel the economic recovery. Instead, people encounter unemployment and price increase. The study attempts to explore and discuss how variables related to people’s living affects inflation, unemployment rate, misery index and income distribution. The results of the study are as follows. First, when the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) is good, Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases along with the rise of average income in every professions as well as the bigger gap between the poor and the rich. However, when the Purchasing Manager Index is bad, the unemployment rate decreases. The relation of manufacturing industry in Taiwan and the economic lifeline of the country is thus shown. Second, when the higher expense of food affect other consume, non-food producers will face stock crisis and thus cut down on invest and man power. The poor become poorer. Third, when the economic recession and the employment rate increases, some people become poorer while some people invest to raise stock price. The strong comparison shows that rich, who own more resources and money, become richer, while the poor become poorer.
論文目次 目錄
第一章、緒論 1
第一節、研究背景與動機 1
第二節、研究目的 2
第三節、研究流程 3
第四節、研究架構 4
第二章、文獻探討 5
第一節、影響通貨膨脹率因素之相關文獻 5
第二節、影響失業率因素之相關文獻 8
第三節、影響所得分配因素之相關文獻 10
第三章、研究假設與方法 15
第一節、資料來源及研究變數衡量與定義 15
第二節、研究假說的建立 19
第三節、研究方法分析 26
第四節、研究模型 27
第四章、實證研究結果 29
第一節、敘述性統計量 29
第二節、實證結果與分析 30
第五章、結論與建議 39
第一節、研究結論 39
第二節、投資與管理意涵 40
第三節、研究限制與建議 40
參考文獻 41
附錄 47

表目錄
表3-1 變數對照表 27
表4-1 各變數敘述統計量 29
表4-2 各解釋變數之共線性 31
表4-3 通貨膨脹率與自變數之迴歸分析 32
表4-4 失業率與自變數之迴歸分析 33
表4-5 痛苦指數與自變數之迴歸分析 34
表4-6 痛苦指數(代理變數)與自變數之迴歸分析 36
表4-7 吉尼係數與自變數之迴歸分析 37
附表1通貨膨脹率之迴歸模型實證結果 47
附表2失業率之迴歸模型實證結果 48
附表3痛苦指數之迴歸模型實證結果 49
附表4痛苦指數(代理變數)之迴歸模型實證結果 50
附表5吉尼係數之迴歸模型實證結果 51

圖目錄
圖1-1研究流程圖 3

參考文獻 參考文獻
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