本研究目的擬提供巴拿馬政府政策、國際合作關係及社會運動者，以未來學思考角度探索及提供多元替代性未來類型。挑戰現今經濟發展條律，邁向系統化發展。本研究之系統化發展由經濟、人力及永續發展所組成。其中，本研究爰用未來學方法論中的因素層級分析法分析（Causal Layered Analysis）作為後結構組織架構，開創多元替代性未來。因素層級分析中包含巴拿馬文化議題，和經濟發展世界觀之影響概念，對巴拿馬達成系統化發展的直接影響，經由因素層級分析後，藉由雙變數情節分析法的應用，產生替代性未來。其替代性未來情境分析結果有四，第一為風險中的巴拿馬；第二為衰退的巴拿馬；第三為過時的巴拿馬及第四巴拿馬新文化。CLA建構出情境分析，提供更易了解及深層的巴拿馬替代性未來所可能面對的未來。
    本研究所展示的巴拿馬系統化發展之結果，是需長期按部就班的規劃完成，最後本研究也提供未來學研究所需使用的批判準則及價值，以提供作為參考。

The main purpose of this research is to influence governmental policy, corporate and civil society leaders in Panama to explore different types of alternative futures using the futures thinking approach to challenge the current economic development paradigm and move towards systematic development.  In this research systematic development consists of economic, human and sustainable development. Futures studies methodologies such as Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) are introduced in this study as a poststructural framework capable of opening divergent of alternative futures for Panama. The CLA analysis concluded that Panama’s cultural issues, and the effects of the worldviews of the economic development concept have a direct impact in Panama’s achievement of systematic development. After this CLA analysis, the double variable scenario with a CLA incasting method was applied to create alternative futures. The first alternative future was Panama rises, the second one was Panama’s decline, the third one was Panama old and the fourth one was Panama’s new culture. A CLA incasting in each scenario provided a better understanding of the deep stories behind each alternative future Panama could face in a future.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1	1
INTRODUCTION AND PROBLEM BACKGROUND	1
1	Introduction	1
1.1	Purpose of study	1
1.2	Statement of problem	3
1.3	Panama: Brief background to the study area	7
1.4	The research questions	9
1.5	Brief description of methodology	10
1.6	Significance of the investigation	10
1.7	Definitions of key terms and concepts	11
1.8	Brief outline of chapters	14
1.9	Limitations of the investigation	14
1.10	Summary	15
CHAPTER 2	16
LITERATURE REVIEW	16
2.	Introduction	16
2.1   Section I: Alternative futures research	17
2.1.1  Introduction: A brief background to futures thinking	17
2.1.2  Inayatullah's four approaches to futures on research	21
2.1.3  Definition of alternative futures	23
2.1.4  Function of alternative futures	24
2.2   Section II: Development concepts	26
2.2.1  A brief background of development	26
2.2.2	Systematic development	27
2.2.3  Economic development	29
2.2.4	Human development	30
2.2.5  Sustainable development	32
2.3	 Section III: Systematic development futures concepts	34
2.3.1	 Ireland systematic development futures text	34
2.4    Section IV: Panama and Latin America futures concepts	37
2.4.1  Panama futures texts	37
2.4.2  Latin America futures text	38
2.5	SUMMARY	39
CHAPTER 3	41
METHODOLOGY	41
3	Introduction	41
3.1	Section I: Theoretical Approach of Causal Layered Analysis	41
3.1.1	Introduction	41
3.1.2   Poststructuralism	42
3.2   Section II: Method of Analysis: Causal Layered Analysis	44
3.2.1   Introduction	44
3.2.2   Justification of method of analysis	44
3.2.3   Causal Layered Analysis Multiple-Layers	45
3.2.4   Causal Layered Analysis Characteristics	47
3.2.5   Causal Layered Analysis Benefits	48
3.2.6   CLA case studies	49
3.2.7   Poverty-free futures – CLA for analyzing economic development issues	49
3.2.8   Application of CLA in this investigation	50
3.3   Section III: Scenarios	51
3.3.1   Introduction	51
3.3.2   Background	51
3.3.3   Definitions	52
3.3.4   Types of scenarios	53
3.3.5   Scenarios application	55
3.3.6   Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) in Latin America– Scenario case of study	56
3.3.7   Scenario critiques	59
3.3.8   Application of scenarios in this project	60
3.4	Summary	60
CHAPTER 4	61
FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS	61
4	Introduction	61
4.1	Causal Layered Analysis	61
4.1.1	Litany	61
4.1.2	Social Causes	62
4.1.3	Worldview/discourse	66
4.1.4	Myth/Metaphor	68
4.2	Four Quadrant Mapping Method	70
4.2.1	The Inner-Individual	71
4.2.2	The Outer-Individual	71
4.2.3	The Outer-Collective	72
4.2.4	The Inner-Collective	72
4.3	Scenarios	73
4.4   Summary	77
CHAPTER 5	78
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS	78
5	Introduction	78
5.1	Summary	78
5.2	Discussion: Panama’s alternative futures along CLA four layers	80
5.2.1	Litany	80
5.2.2	Social causes	80
5.2.3	Worldview/discourse	81
5.2.4   Myth/Metaphor	81
5.3	Responses to core research questions	82
5.3.1	Research question #1	82
5.3.2	Research question #2	83
5.4	Conclusions	85
5.5   Suggestions for further research	86
REFERENCES	87
GLOSSARY OF KEY TERMS AND CONCEPTS	97



LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1: Sustainable-Economy-Society 6 
Figure 3.1: A Layered (CLA) View of ‘the problem’47
Figure 3.2: Double Variable Scenario 54
Figure 4.1: Panama’s Double Variable Scenarios with CLA Incasting Analysis 76

LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1: The Futures Field: Tools for Managing Change 20
Table 2.2: Four Research Approaches to the Future 22
Table 4.1: Corruption Rank 64
Table 4.2: Panama’s Lack of Systematic Development Four Quadrant Mapping Analysis 73

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