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系統識別號 U0002-1806200822340200
中文論文名稱 巴拿馬整體發展之替代性未來
英文論文名稱 Alternative Futures For Panama's Systematic Development
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 未來學研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Futures Studies
學年度 96
學期 2
出版年 97
研究生中文姓名 林啟文
研究生英文姓名 Jose Augusto Polo Lin
學號 695700269
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2008-05-28
論文頁數 99頁
口試委員 指導教授-陳國華
委員-蘇哈爾
委員-宋玫玫
中文關鍵字 替代性未來  因素層級分析法  情節分析  系統化發展  巴拿馬 
英文關鍵字 Alternative Futures  Causal Layered Analysis  Scenarios  Systematic Development  Panama 
學科別分類 學科別人文學哲學
中文摘要 本研究目的擬提供巴拿馬政府政策、國際合作關係及社會運動者,以未來學思考角度探索及提供多元替代性未來類型。挑戰現今經濟發展條律,邁向系統化發展。本研究之系統化發展由經濟、人力及永續發展所組成。其中,本研究爰用未來學方法論中的因素層級分析法分析(Causal Layered Analysis)作為後結構組織架構,開創多元替代性未來。因素層級分析中包含巴拿馬文化議題,和經濟發展世界觀之影響概念,對巴拿馬達成系統化發展的直接影響,經由因素層級分析後,藉由雙變數情節分析法的應用,產生替代性未來。其替代性未來情境分析結果有四,第一為風險中的巴拿馬;第二為衰退的巴拿馬;第三為過時的巴拿馬及第四巴拿馬新文化。CLA建構出情境分析,提供更易了解及深層的巴拿馬替代性未來所可能面對的未來。
本研究所展示的巴拿馬系統化發展之結果,是需長期按部就班的規劃完成,最後本研究也提供未來學研究所需使用的批判準則及價值,以提供作為參考。
英文摘要 The main purpose of this research is to influence governmental policy, corporate and civil society leaders in Panama to explore different types of alternative futures using the futures thinking approach to challenge the current economic development paradigm and move towards systematic development. In this research systematic development consists of economic, human and sustainable development. Futures studies methodologies such as Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) are introduced in this study as a poststructural framework capable of opening divergent of alternative futures for Panama. The CLA analysis concluded that Panama’s cultural issues, and the effects of the worldviews of the economic development concept have a direct impact in Panama’s achievement of systematic development. After this CLA analysis, the double variable scenario with a CLA incasting method was applied to create alternative futures. The first alternative future was Panama rises, the second one was Panama’s decline, the third one was Panama old and the fourth one was Panama’s new culture. A CLA incasting in each scenario provided a better understanding of the deep stories behind each alternative future Panama could face in a future.
論文目次 TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1 1
INTRODUCTION AND PROBLEM BACKGROUND 1
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Purpose of study 1
1.2 Statement of problem 3
1.3 Panama: Brief background to the study area 7
1.4 The research questions 9
1.5 Brief description of methodology 10
1.6 Significance of the investigation 10
1.7 Definitions of key terms and concepts 11
1.8 Brief outline of chapters 14
1.9 Limitations of the investigation 14
1.10 Summary 15
CHAPTER 2 16
LITERATURE REVIEW 16
2. Introduction 16
2.1 Section I: Alternative futures research 17
2.1.1 Introduction: A brief background to futures thinking 17
2.1.2 Inayatullah's four approaches to futures on research 21
2.1.3 Definition of alternative futures 23
2.1.4 Function of alternative futures 24
2.2 Section II: Development concepts 26
2.2.1 A brief background of development 26
2.2.2 Systematic development 27
2.2.3 Economic development 29
2.2.4 Human development 30
2.2.5 Sustainable development 32
2.3 Section III: Systematic development futures concepts 34
2.3.1 Ireland systematic development futures text 34
2.4 Section IV: Panama and Latin America futures concepts 37
2.4.1 Panama futures texts 37
2.4.2 Latin America futures text 38
2.5 SUMMARY 39
CHAPTER 3 41
METHODOLOGY 41
3 Introduction 41
3.1 Section I: Theoretical Approach of Causal Layered Analysis 41
3.1.1 Introduction 41
3.1.2 Poststructuralism 42
3.2 Section II: Method of Analysis: Causal Layered Analysis 44
3.2.1 Introduction 44
3.2.2 Justification of method of analysis 44
3.2.3 Causal Layered Analysis Multiple-Layers 45
3.2.4 Causal Layered Analysis Characteristics 47
3.2.5 Causal Layered Analysis Benefits 48
3.2.6 CLA case studies 49
3.2.7 Poverty-free futures – CLA for analyzing economic development issues 49
3.2.8 Application of CLA in this investigation 50
3.3 Section III: Scenarios 51
3.3.1 Introduction 51
3.3.2 Background 51
3.3.3 Definitions 52
3.3.4 Types of scenarios 53
3.3.5 Scenarios application 55
3.3.6 Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) in Latin America– Scenario case of study 56
3.3.7 Scenario critiques 59
3.3.8 Application of scenarios in this project 60
3.4 Summary 60
CHAPTER 4 61
FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS 61
4 Introduction 61
4.1 Causal Layered Analysis 61
4.1.1 Litany 61
4.1.2 Social Causes 62
4.1.3 Worldview/discourse 66
4.1.4 Myth/Metaphor 68
4.2 Four Quadrant Mapping Method 70
4.2.1 The Inner-Individual 71
4.2.2 The Outer-Individual 71
4.2.3 The Outer-Collective 72
4.2.4 The Inner-Collective 72
4.3 Scenarios 73
4.4 Summary 77
CHAPTER 5 78
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 78
5 Introduction 78
5.1 Summary 78
5.2 Discussion: Panama’s alternative futures along CLA four layers 80
5.2.1 Litany 80
5.2.2 Social causes 80
5.2.3 Worldview/discourse 81
5.2.4 Myth/Metaphor 81
5.3 Responses to core research questions 82
5.3.1 Research question #1 82
5.3.2 Research question #2 83
5.4 Conclusions 85
5.5 Suggestions for further research 86
REFERENCES 87
GLOSSARY OF KEY TERMS AND CONCEPTS 97



LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1: Sustainable-Economy-Society 6
Figure 3.1: A Layered (CLA) View of ‘the problem’47
Figure 3.2: Double Variable Scenario 54
Figure 4.1: Panama’s Double Variable Scenarios with CLA Incasting Analysis 76

LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1: The Futures Field: Tools for Managing Change 20
Table 2.2: Four Research Approaches to the Future 22
Table 4.1: Corruption Rank 64
Table 4.2: Panama’s Lack of Systematic Development Four Quadrant Mapping Analysis 73
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