根據內生成長理論，知識與智慧的累積是促成一個國家經濟持續成長的重要因素。而對開發中國家而言，外人直接投資為接受先進國家技術與知識最直接的傳遞管道。為了探討外人直接投資對亞洲開發中國家之經濟成長的影響，本文利用Battese and Coelli(1995)的隨機生產邊界模型，探討外人直接投資如何影響被投資國國內的生產力與生產效率，其後估計各國之總要素生產力成長率，以分析各國在研究期間的經濟發展情況。研究期間自1980年到2003年，並以1997年亞洲金融風暴做為分隔點，樣本國家為中國、印度、泰國、馬來西亞、印尼、菲律賓、越南等七個亞洲開發中國家。實證結果顯示:

1.被投資國透過外人直接投資所得到的技術外溢效果不但能提升生產技術(技術進步)也同時能改善生產效率。

2.各國的總要素生產力成長率平均值在金融風暴發生後呈現退步，但仍為正成長，而衰退大部份是來於技術效率的惡化。分析各國的總要素生產力成長率來源發現技術進步率貢獻近五分之四左右。

According to the Endogenous Growth model, knowledge accumulation is an important factor for a country’s sustainable growth. For most of the developing countries, foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the most effective conduits to obtain the knowledge and technology developed by advanced economies. In order to investigate the issue of how FDI affect the economic and productivity growth of some Asian developing countries, this paper uses Stochastic Frontier Approach (Battese and Coelli, 1995) to analyze the impacts of FDI on host country’s productivity and production efficiency, and then following an estimate of the growth rate of total factor productivity (TFP). The sample countries include China, India, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippine and Vietnam and the study periods are from 1980 to 2003. The main findings of this research are as follow:            

1.The spillover effect through FDI benefits the host countries’ technical efficiency and technological progress.

2.Most sample countries’ TFP decrease after 1997 Asian financial crisis but are still positive. The decreases are mostly coming from a backsliding of technical efficiency. Moreover, for most of the sample countries, the technological progress constitutes eighty-percent of the TFP growth.

目  錄
第一章 緒論1
第一節 研究動機與目的1
第二節 研究架構3
第二章 文獻回顧5
第三章 全球外人直接投資概況10
第四章 理論模型與實證方法19
第一節 理論模型19
第二節 實證模型22
第三節 假設檢定24
第五章 資料來源與變數建立26
第一節 變數定義與資料來源26
第二節 變數的敘述統計量與描述27
第六章 實證分析結果與意涵35
第一節 模型檢定與選擇35
第二節 係數估計結果38
第三節 總要素生產力估計40
第四節 總結分析結果及其意涵43
第七章 結論與建議46
第一節 結論46
第二節 後續研究與建議47
參考文獻48

表目錄
表3-1 1980~90年全球前五大對外投資國家(單位:%)12
表3-2 亞洲開發中國家FDI存量金額產業分布(單位:%)18
表5-1 解釋變數敘述統計表(1980年到1997年)28
表5-1 解釋變數敘述統計表(1998年到2003年)29
表6-1 四種虛無假設情況下的模型檢定結果36
表6-2 各種檢定之概似比檢定結37
表6-3 各國生產效率平均估計值40
表6-4 各國總要素生產力成長率分解表42

圖目錄
圖1-1本文研究架構4
圖3-1 1975~89年全球FDI流出金額與出口金額變化圖(1975年=100)12
圖3-2 1991~98年亞洲開發中國家FDI流入金額占開發中國家比率變化圖15
圖3-3 1986~98年亞洲開發中國家FDI流出金額與占全球比率變化圖15
圖5-1 各國實質國內生產毛額變化圖30
圖5-2 各國實質資本存量變化圖31
圖5-3 各國就業人口變化圖32
圖5-4 各國中等教育註冊率變化圖33
圖5-5 外人直接投資占GDP變化圖34
圖6-1 各國總要素生產力成長率變化圖43

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李揚、陳欣怡(2007)「海外直接投資對中國三大經濟區之影響」，forthcoming。
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