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系統識別號 U0002-1802201914584900
中文論文名稱 影響中美貿易赤字因素之分析
英文論文名稱 An Analysis of the Principal Determinants of the US - China Trade Deficit
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 臺灣與亞太研究全英語碩士學位學程
系所名稱(英) Master's Program in Taiwan and Asia-Pacific Studies, College of International Studies (English-Taugh
學年度 107
學期 1
出版年 108
研究生中文姓名 馬安娜
研究生英文姓名 Anna Maliavina
學號 605585198
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2019-01-09
論文頁數 84頁
口試委員 指導教授-柯大衛
委員-陳思寬
委員-萬哲鈺
中文關鍵字 進口  出口  貿易赤字  價格指數  實在的換比率 
英文關鍵字 import  export  trade deficit  price index  real exchange rate 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究的目的是弄清楚美國跟中國貿易的赤字是否由於不平的貨幣比率或者由於微分的儲蓄率形成。 研究壞繞兩個時期: 1. 1997-2017; 2. 2004-2017. 資料是按照每個月安排的。 根據作者的算, 貿易流的收入效果比較大並且具有時間的穩定性。 進口確定符合經濟的發展, 因此中國的更快的發展會取消跟美國的貿易的赤字。 價格比收入變化得更快。 一般來講, 人民幣的實在的價值跟中國對美國的進口的水準有負面的關係。 從進口與出口價格指數角度來看, 可以發現美國從中國的進口收到進口價格指數的深刻的影響: 價格指數越高,進口容量越低。儲蓄率對GDP不重要或者不屬於期望的效果。中國的FOREX 積累 對美國的出口不會有很大的影響。
英文摘要 This thesis attempts to answer the question whether the merchandise US trade deficit with China is due to an artificially high exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar, or whether such deficits are due mainly to differential saving rates. The results encompass two time periods: 1997-2017 and 2004-2017 and the data frequency is monthly. According to the calculations, income effects on trade flows are large and consistent over time. Imports certainly respond to growth in the economy and faster growth in China would help to eliminate the trade deficit with the US. The price variable is less consistent than the income variable. In general, the real value of the RMB is negatively related to the flow of imports from China into the US. With regards to the issue of import and export price indexes, we find that US imports from China are very much impacted by changes in the import price index: a higher price index leads to a lower import flow. Inclusion of saving rates and debt to GDP ratios are either not significant or not signed as expected. Inclusion of variables of forex accumulation by China is not well correlated with exports to US.
論文目次 Table of Contents
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Question 1
1.2 Research Motivation 4
1.3 Research Methodology 7
1.5 Summary of Results 10
Chapter 2 Literature Review 12
2.1 The Problem of Data 13
2.2 Political Aspects of the US-China Trade Deficit 14
2.3 The Elasticities Controversy and the US-China Trade Deficit 16
Chapter 3 Theoretical Issues to Consider 20
3.1 Early US Deficit Experiences 20
3.2 A Closer Look at the Three Basic Theories 21
3.3 Summary of Theoretical Implications 27
Chapter 4. Empirical Model and Findings 31
4.1 The Structure of the Empirical Model 31
4.2 Data and Transformations 34
4.3 Statistical Estimation and Model Validation 49
4.4 Discussion of Empirical Results 54
Chapter 5 Conclusions 64
Appendix 1 69
Appendix 2 79
References 82

List of Tables and Figures

Table 1: Summary of Elasticities 18
Table 2: Summary on Elasticities 19
Table 3 Granger Causality Tests 34
Table 4: Granger Causality Tests 34
Table 5: Comparison of Macroeconomics 39
Table 6: Unit Root Tests on Principal Variables – 48
Table 7: Correlations 1997-2017 59
Table 8: Correlations 2004-2017 59

Figure 1 log of Real US Trade with China (1997-2017) 8
Figure 2 The widening trade gap between US and China 12
Figure 3: The Real Exchange Rate of 1 Ream RMB in terms of Real USD 44
Figure 4: US Percentage Trade Deficit/GDP with China 45
Figure 5: Real US Price Indexes for Imports from China and Exports to China 46

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