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系統識別號 U0002-1707200914132600
中文論文名稱 從美國次級房貸風暴看金融全球化的危機
英文論文名稱 The Financial Crisis and U.S. Sub-prime Mortgage Credit Curnch
第三語言論文名稱 金融グローバル化の危機と米国サブプライムローンの問題研究
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 日本研究所碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Japanese Studies
學年度 97
學期 2
出版年 98
研究生中文姓名 林育菱
研究生英文姓名 Yu-Ling Lin
學號 795300168
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2009-06-17
論文頁數 67頁
口試委員 指導教授-任燿廷
委員-任燿廷
委員-洪振義
委員-小山直則
中文關鍵字 次級房貸  金融全球化  金融自由化  信用衍生性商品  經常帳失衡  風險管理 
英文關鍵字 Sub-prime Mortgage  Financial Globalization  Financial LiberalizationImbalance Current Account  Risk Management  Credit Derivative  Imbalance Current Account 
第三語言關鍵字 サブプライム住宅ローン  金融グローバル化  金融自由化  ストラクチャード・クレジット商品  経常収支のアンバランス  リスク管理 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學區域研究
中文摘要 本論文主要為探討美國2007年次級房貸風暴及金融全球化的關係,金融危機發展至今,造成了全球金融市場的混亂如我們所見,這場金融災難從美國發生後再蔓延全球,本論文歸納主要有三個原因來說明為何美國國內的貸款問題會引發全球金融危機甚至到現在已經嚴重影響到實體經濟的發展並讓全球陷入經濟衰退的困境。
第一個原因是寬鬆的金融規制及金融全球化。美國次級房貸風暴發生的根本原因是在於對信用衍生性商品的監督及管理出了問題,美國金融機構對於這些以次級房貸為擔保基礎的結構性商品的風險轉嫁,只是讓信用泡沫越滾越大,在金融全球化的環境底下更是發揮了極大的滲透力,相關商品雖然行銷至全球各地,但是當房市價格開始反轉直下,信用泡沫也終於破滅,其所帶來的金融海嘯也席捲全球。
第二個原因是對於信用衍生性商品的風險管理,本論文整理分析次級房貸風暴在此次風險管理程序上出了什麼樣的問題。
最後一個原因是全球經常帳的失衡。高速的經濟成長,經常帳的巨額失衡,長期實質利率偏低,利差交易投機,溫和的通膨,信用過度擴張,大致描繪出美國次級房貸風暴前的全球經濟情況,本論文探討為什麼新興經濟體要保有超額的外匯準備,另外超額儲蓄及超額消費為什麼會造成全球經濟的不穩定。
本論文另外一個重點是探討日本1997~1998的金融危機處理模式與現在美國次級房貸所引發的全球金融危機的處理方式的分析比較。而其中差異最大的不同點是美國此次金融危機中減損的資產大部分是屬信用衍生結構性商品,因此資產損失金額龐大且難以估計以至於金融機構流動性短期間內難以恢復正常。
目前我們所面臨的困境是自1930年經濟大蕭條以來最嚴峻的考驗,所謂的金融技術創新及金融自由化是否真為這個世界帶來更多的財富,又或者只是為全球金融市場帶來更不穩定的發展,在全球經濟失衡的大環境底下,我們必須思考全球經濟應該如何均衡的發展,才能讓社會貧富差距縮小並逐漸反轉國與國之間經常帳的失衡,而讓資源能更有效的被運用,全球經濟為這次的金融危機付出相當大的代價,史無前例的大規模金融救援行動及政府鉅額的支出讓我們深刻的體會到,金融體系一旦崩壞對於實體經濟帶來的衝擊有多巨大,因此在這次事件當中,我們應記取此次金融危機的教訓,發現問題並解決問題,才能避免重蹈覆轍陷入更艱難的困境。
關鍵字: 次級房貸、金融全球化、金融自由化、信用衍生性商品、
經常帳失衡、風險管理。
英文摘要 The main purpose of this paper is discussing about the relations between sub-prime mortgage crisis and global finance at risk. As we have seen, present financial crisis derived from U.S. domestic loan problem caused such disorder in global financial markets and then brought severe impact to real economy.
First, financial deregulation and liberalization, the essential problem of U.S. sup-prime mortgage crisis is the regulation with credit derivatives in financial institutions. Self-righteous risk transformation on structural products related to sub-prime mortgage caused housing bubble bigger and bigger and it would collapse when downturn pressure on housing market.
The second reason is the unsuitable risk management of financial credit derivatives. This paper analyzed that why the financial regulation should catch up the pace of newly financial advanced technology.
Finally reason is the imbalanced current account in the world. Rapid growth, unbalance of enormous current account, low long-term real interests, risky spread, moderate inflation and credit growth, all the phenomenon have described our global economy before U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis. This paper analyzed that why some countries have to hold such enormous foreign reserves and why saying surplus and excess consumption caused the instability to global economy.
Another point of this thesis is the comparison of treatment between Japanese financial crisis in 1997~98 and U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis. The most differentia between these two cases is the value of write-down assets. In the American toxic assets for example, it is very hard to value the price because these toxic assets are belong to credit derivative structural products. It is also can explain why the recovery process of liquidity takes so long.
The situation we are facing is the most difficult sine the “Great Depression” in 1930s. Global governments have tried many ways to stabilize financial turmoil and running large fiscal deficits to recovery economies. But one thing we have to realize is that no matter the natural resources or properties should be used in efficiency. Only through the way of balanced development can improve social dislocation and full employment.
第三語言摘要 今回の金融危機が、米国サブプライム市場の緩い与信基準を発端に、これを組み込んだストラクチャード・クレジット商品から生じた厄介な問題が米国でまず発生した。米国が震源地で、諸外国の金融機関と実体経済も影響を受けていて、全世界を経済の後退の苦しい立場に陥らせる。しかし、どんな原因で米国国内のサブプライム住宅ローンの問題を全世界の金融市場と実体経済まで広げて、当論文は、三つの原因を整理して、今回の金融危機発生の原因を詳しく説明する。
第1は、金融規制緩和と金融グローバルカ。新しい複雑な仕組み金融商品や市場ビジネスモデルが金融グローバルカの環境の下で広く浸透力を発揮しました。米金融機関創造したストラクチャード・クレジット商品の独善的なリスクを転嫁することは、ただ信用バブルを持ってきた。今は、膨らんだバブルを崩壊しましたが、全世界の金融市場も混乱に陥らせる。
第2は、米国サブプライム住宅ローンの混乱の衝撃で、全世界の信用金融商品リスク管理システムがどんな問題があるかを考え直した。
第3は、経常収支のアンバランス。当論文は、なぜ新興国の巨額の外貨準備と先進国の経常収支赤字が、この世界の経済成長に不安定を持ってきましたの原因を分析します。
当論文の中、もう一つの重点は、日本1997年金融危機とアメリカを発する金融危機の処理模式を比較します。この二つ事件に比べると、減損の資産類別は違います。今回の金融危機は、ストラクチャード・クレジット商品の価値を評価することはとても複雑が、金融機関の流動性を回復することは短時間に難しい。
現在は、私たち直面している局面は、1930年代“経済大恐慌”以来一番厳しい考験が、いわゆる進んだ金融技術と金融自由化は、この世界により多い繁栄あるいは全世界の金融市場に不安定な発展を持って来るか。全世界の経済はどのように均衡が取れる発展し、社会の貧富の格差を縮小し、そして経常収支のアンバランスを逆転させて、資源を更に有効的に運用できることは私達は今回の金融危機より得るべきな教訓だと思います。

キー・ワード: サブプライム住宅ローン、金融グローバル化、金融自由化、ストラクチャード・クレジット商品、経常収支のアンバランス、リスク管理。
論文目次 Contents
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1-1 Purpose of the study 1
1-2 Motive of the study .2
1-3 Research Method and Framework 5
1-4Method of Research .5

Chapter 2 Literature Review 7
2-1 The formation of capitalism and its impact to this world 7
2-2 Financial crisis in recent decades 12
2-2-1-“Black Monday” 1987 - U.S 12
2-2-2 “Lost decade” 1990s and Financial crisis in 1997~98- Japan 13
2-2-3-“Asia Financial Crisis” 1997 - South Korea 14
2-3 The developmental background and expansion in subprime mortgage market 17
2-4 The role of America/dollar played in global financial market 19
2-4-1 Why the U.S need to borrow from abroad to finance its consumption. .19
2-4-2 Who did the offsetting spending since the stock market bubble burst in 2000 .19
2-4-3 What has all this meant for policy? 20

Chapter3Relations between the global economic disproportion and US. sub-prime mortgage market. 22
3-1 Saving surplus and excess consumption .22
3-1-1 Why these countries have to hold such enormous foreign reserves 23
3-1-2 Why saving surplus and excess consumption caused 24
instability to global economy
3-2 Securitization and financial derivatives 26
3-2-1 How to repackage these asset-backed credit derivatives and
marketing to the world? . 26
3-3 The chain reaction from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis .30

Chapter 4 Financial Derivatives and Risk Management 35
4-1 Liquidity Risk 35
4-2 Model Risk 39
4-3 Credit Rating Agency Risk 42
4-4 Counter-party Risk .44
4-5 Settlement Risk 45


Chapter 5.The comparison with the treatment of financial crisis of Japan
in 1997~1998 and America in 2007~2008 47
5-1 Japanese experience of financial crisis and treatment in 1997~1998 47
5-2 The treatment of financial crisis (sub-prime mortgage crisis) in 2007~08 of
America

Chapter 6 Conclusion 53
6-1 Reconsideration of financial deregulation and liberalization 53
6-2 How to correct global reserve system .59
6-3 Rebuilding stable financial market with global co-operation and co-ordination. 63

References 66
List of Figures

Figure2.1 Rate of serious delinquency on residential mortgages, by type of 18
mortgage and type of interest rate in U.S. banks,2000-2009

Figure2.2 U.S. Stock Price Indexes, 2001-2009 .20

Figure2.3 Global Imbalances, Liquidity, and U.S. House Prices 21

..Figure3.1 Gross issuance of selected mortgage and
asset-backed securities in U.S. banks, 2003-08 28

Figure3.2 The Transmission of Stress: Schematic Depiction of Effects .32

Figure3.3 Advanced and Emerging Asia:
Suffering from the Collapse of Globe Trade .33

Figure4.1 Premium on credit default swaps on subordinated debt
at selected banking institutions, 2001-09 45
List of Tables
Table3.1 Selected East Asian Countries Net Foreign Assets 23

Table5.1 Bank Wholesale Financing and Public Funding Support 52

Table6.1 Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP,
Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance 54

Table6.2 Advanced Economies: Real GDP,
Consumer Prices, and Unemployment 55

Table6.3 Advanced Economies Current Account Position 55

Table6.4 Financial Crises and Deregulation in the Mortgage Market .60
參考文獻 REFERENES:
Chinese Books
1.任燿廷 (2009) <東亞區域經濟發展與日本>,台北: 秀威資訊科技股份有限公司
2.任燿廷 (2009) <戰後日本與東亞的經濟發展>,台北: 秀威資訊科技股份有限公司

English Books
1.Stiglitz, Joseph. E. (2006) Making Globalization Work, New York: W.W. Norton & Company Inc.
2.Greespan, Alan (2007) The Age of Turbulence, London: Penguin Books Ltd.
3.Togo, Kazuhiko (2005) Japan’s Foreign Policy 1945-2003, Boston: Koninklijke BrillNV, Leiden.
4.Matz, Lenoare and Neu, Peter (2007) Liquidity Risk Measurement and Management, Singapore: John Wiley & Sons Pte. Ltd.

Japanese books
1.伊藤元重 (1989) 『国際経済入門』東京:日本経済新聞社。
2.速水佑次郎 (1995) 『開発経済学』東京:創文社。
3 Peyrolevade, Jean 岩本武和/伊豆久 訳 (2007) 『世界を壊す金融資本主義』東京:NTT出版株式会。
4.Eatwell, John L and Taylor, Lance J. 林昌弘 訳 (2003)『金融グローバル化の危機』東京:岩波書店。

Discussion and Research Papers
1.Kiff, John and Mills, Paul(2007) “Recent Development in U.S. Subprime Mortgage Markets,” IMF Working Paper No 188 ,
http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm.
2.Gibson, Michael S.(2007) “Credit Derivatives and Risk Management,” Economics Discussion Serious-Division of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs-No47 Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200747/200747pap.pdf

3. Kharas,Homi, (2008),”Global perspectives on the U.S. financial crisis,”
The Brookings Institution.
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2008/1010_global_finance/200810
1_crisis.pdf
4. Financial Service Authority (2009), “Chapter 1.3-Lehman Brothers and the future approach to global wholesale banks,” in “ The Turner Review.” http://www.fsa..gov.uk/pubs/other/turner_review.pdf.
5. Masatoshi, Kuratani &Yukihiko, Endo (2000) “Establishing New Financial Markets in Japan,” NRI Papers No.6.
http://www.nri.co.jp/english/opinion/papers/2000/pdf/np200006.pdf
6. IMF Staff (2000),“Recovery from the Asian Crisis and the Role of the
IMF,” International Monetary Fund,”
http://ww.imf.org/external/np/exr/ib/2000/062300.htm.
7. Financial Stability Board (2008), “Report of the Financial Stability Forum on
Enhancing Market and Institutional Resilience,”
http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/
8. IMF Staff (2000) “The Asian Financial Crisis-what have we learned,”
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fanda/1999/09/lane.htm
9. IMF Staff (2009),“World Economic Outlook-Crisis and Recovery,” International
Monetary Fund,
http://www.imf.org/external/
10. Bech Morten L and Rice Tara.(2009) “Profits and Balance Sheet Development at
U.S. Commercial Banks in 2008,” Federal Reserve BULLETIN No.95,
The Federal Reserve board.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2007/pdf/bankprofit07.pdf
11. 本間忠世 (1997)「銀行の再生―不良資産問題を越え」 Japan Research Review No 2 日本総研
http://www.jri.co.jp/JRR/1997/02/sy-bank.html.

Website information:
1 Bank for International Settlements http://www.bis.org/
2.Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
http://www.federalreserve.gov/
3.BROOKINGS . http://www.brookings.edu/
4.The Economists .http://www.economist.com/finance/
5.Daiwa Institute of Research Holdings.http://www.dir.co.jp/index.html
6 Financial Times .http://www.ft.com/home/us
7 FinancialStability.gov http://www.financialstability.gov/roadtostability/index.html
8.International Monetary Fund .http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
9.NIKKEI.com http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/freetop.aspx
8.NIKKEI.NET .http://www.nikkei.co.jp/
10.NRI .. http://www.nri.co.jp/english/index.html
11 Citi http://www.citigroup.com/citi/homepage/



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