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系統識別號 U0002-1706201222073200
中文論文名稱 盈餘與股利宣告交互作用之互補及替代效果
英文論文名稱 The Complementary and Substitution of Interaction Effects between Earnings and Dividend Announcements
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Banking and Finance
學年度 100
學期 2
出版年 101
研究生中文姓名 劉思漢
研究生英文姓名 Szu-Han Liu
學號 699530738
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2012-05-15
論文頁數 84頁
口試委員 指導教授-顧廣平
委員-黃明官
委員-王麗惠
委員-李沃牆
中文關鍵字 盈餘  股利  交互作用  互補  替代 
英文關鍵字 Earnings  Dividend  Interactive Effect  Complementary  Substitution 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學商學
中文摘要 本研究以台灣上市及上櫃公司之非同時宣告的盈餘與股利資訊作為研究對象,針對樣本期間2000年至2010年之1,138家公司,共6,223組盈餘與股利宣告的年資料觀察值,將其區分為(一)股利宣告先於盈餘宣告;及(二)盈餘宣告先於股利宣告兩組,透過「一致性訊息宣告效果之比較」和「訊息宣告效果之縱橫迴歸分析」兩方面的驗證,檢視先宣告之訊息對於後宣告訊息之市場反應所造成的影響,探討兩宣告資訊間是否具有交互作用影響,並進一步分辨其為互補效果亦或是替代效果。
實證結果顯示,台灣股票市場確實存在顯著的交互作用互補效果,且在股利宣告先於盈餘宣告的情況下,或者後宣告之資訊為壞消息時,其互補效果更為強烈;並發現投資人對於「先宣告之資訊」、「未預期股利」以及「好消息」等訊息的反應程度較大。最後,本研究亦指出產業之間的差異性會對訊息宣告效果產生影響。
英文摘要 This paper examines the relative strengths of complementary and substitution of interaction effects between non-contemporaneous earnings and dividend announcements on common stock returns. The results indicate that the stock market in Taiwan has significant complementary effect, especially in cases where dividend announcements precede earnings announcements or the latter announcements are bad news. Further, the magnitude of investors’ reaction tend to be more drastic to prior announced information, unexpected dividend and good news. In addition, the evidence also indicates that differences between industries do affect the information effects of earnings and dividend announcements.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 6
第三節 研究架構與流程 7
一、文章架構 7
二、研究流程 8
第二章 文獻探討 9
第一節 相關理論探討 9
一、股利相關理論 9
二、盈餘相關理論 16
三、營業收入相關理論 19
四、交互作用相關理論 20
第二節 相關文獻回顧 22
一、股利相關文獻 22
二、盈餘相關文獻 29
三、營業收入相關文獻 34
四、交互作用相關文獻 37
第三章 研究方法、資料及預期結果 44
第一節 樣本資料 44
第二節 研究方式 45
第三節 各變數之計算 47
一、未預期盈餘、股利以及營收(SUE, SUD, SUR)之計算方式 47
二、累計異常報酬(CAR)之計算方式 48
第四節 假說與驗證方法 50
一、一致性訊息宣告效果之比較 50
二、訊息宣告效果之縱橫迴歸分析 53
第四章 實證結果與分析 57
第一節 敘述統計 57
第二節 一致性訊息宣告效果之比較 60
一、股利宣告先於盈餘宣告 60
二、盈餘宣告先於股利宣告 62
第三節 訊息宣告效果之縱橫迴歸分析 66
一、股利宣告先於盈餘宣告 66
二、盈餘宣告先於股利宣告 68
第四節 訊息宣告效果之產業間比較 71
第五章 結論與建議 74
參考文獻 77
中文文獻 77
英文文獻 78


圖目錄
圖一:研究流程圖 8

表目錄
表一:投資人類別成交值比重統計表 5
表二:各子樣本之事件個數 51
表三:迴歸分析係數之預期結果 56
表四:敘述統計表 58
表五:相關係數表 59
表六:盈餘宣告異常報酬率(ECAR)檢定 (股利宣告先於盈餘宣告) 62
表七:股利宣告異常報酬率(DCAR)檢定 (盈餘宣告先於股利宣告) 64
表八:盈餘宣告效果迴歸分析-股利宣告先於盈餘宣告 67
表九:股利宣告效果迴歸分析-盈餘宣告先於股利宣告 69
表十:盈餘宣告效果之產業比較-股利宣告先於盈餘宣告 72
表十一:股利宣告效果之產業比較-盈餘宣告先於股利宣告 73
參考文獻 中文文獻:
1. 何秀芳 (2000),再論月營收公告之資訊內涵,臺灣大學會計學研究所未出版之碩士論文。
2. 金成隆 (1995),資訊特性與揭露頻率資訊涵之研究,政治大學會計學研究所未出版之博士論文。
3. 黃志仁 (2008),盈餘與股利宣告之交互作用:互補或替代?,經濟與管理論叢,第4卷,第2期,163-180。
4. 黃瓊慧、廖秀梅、廖益興 (2004),股價是否充分反應當期盈餘對未來盈餘之意涵-以台灣上市公司之季盈餘序列遵循AR(1)模式為例,當代會計,第5卷,第1期,25-56。
5. 劉毅馨、蔡彥卿 (2006),月營收宣告期間私有資訊交易之探究,管理與系統,第13卷,第1期,47-76。
6. 蔡醒亞 (1999),我國公司月營業收入與股票交易量關連性,政治大學會計學研究所未出版之碩士論文。
7. 簡雪芳 (1998),月營收公告資訊內涵之相關研究,臺灣大學商學研究所未出版之博士論文。
8. 顧廣平 (2003),台灣新上市股票短期與長期績效之再探討,證券市場發展季刊,第15卷,第1期,1-40。
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